There is no argument that Lucas Sims has had a great start to the year and is showing that he has the talent to possibly perform on the next level. But the question has to be asked is this seemingly improved command here to stay and will he continue to dominate hitters as he has done now through his first 35 innings. A comparison can be made to Astros' starter Lance McCullers who can strike out as many as anyone in the league but at times has struggled with command at times. Now if he could achieve the level that McCullers can pitch at I would be thrilled but a more in depth look at the stats is necessary to see if he is ready to take the step to the next level.
To start looking at it we need to go back through his minor league career. His first year in a ball (2013) he posted through 116.2 innings excellent numbers with a 2.62 era, 10.34 k/9, and a FIP of 3.09. Along with those numbers he also had a tiny 2.7% hr/fb and 18.3% K-BB%. With these excellent numbers his stock skyrocketed as he broke into the top 100 lists usually a little over 50 with the exception of a #40 ranking by baseball prospectus.
The concerning part about this is that he came back the next year to a+ and seemed to have regressed somewhat. Through 156.2 innings he posted a 4.19 era, a 6.15 k/9, and a 4.56 FIP. His K-BB% also severely reduced 7.4%. Lots of this was due to his main problem over his professional career in control. After this he dropped severly in top 100 lists being dropped completely by a couple and only appeared in 2 at #94 and #54. Next year he pitched in both a+ and double a posting a 4.37 era with a good 9.7 K/9 but an horrible 5.2 BB/9. Last year he struggled in triple a posting a 7.56 era through 50 innings of work with a 10.44 K/9 and a 6.66 BB/9. Thankfully he rebounded when he got sent back down to double a having a 2.67 era through 91 innings with a 9.99 K/9 and a 5.44 BB/9.
His back and forth performances continued after this making many worry that he could ever become a consistent starter at the major league level. Obviously command and walks are the major concerns having a carrer 4.2 BB/9. However, his recent performance and strides in command have many thinking that he could make an imitate impact soon with Bartolo Colon struggling and R.A. Dickey giving up what seems like two or three home runs a game. There is reason to be excited with a 2.57 era through 35 innings while sporting his lowest career BB/9 at 2.06. His FIP is above average at 3.39. Will this new found control continue? Can he make an impact at the major league level this year? Only time will tell but hes become one of the more interesting prospects to watch in the Brave's system.
