What happens if there isn’t a 2020 season?

It has now been a week since the owners passed a proposal to have a 2020 season, but the plan has stalled amidst negotiations with the players union on health safety and economics. Reports from multiple MLB insiders say that while both sides understand that it would be really bad to not play a season, there has not been much progress in actual negotiations, particularly around compensation. With there being little progress, it may be time to consider what happens if there isn’t a 2020 season.

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In March the players and owners came to an agreement that would grant full service time to all players in the event of a complete cancellation of the 2020 season. While this isn’t as brutal for the Braves as it would be for the Dodgers, who would lose Mookie Betts to free agency, the Braves would lose a host of players to free agency in their own right. This list includes Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, and Adeiny Hechavarria. Felix Hernandez and Josh Tomlin are on minor league contracts, but would also become free agents. That is one cleanup hitter, one platoon catcher, at least one starting pitcher, two core pieces of the bullpen, and some useful depth. One major upside for Atlanta in light of this possibility is that if the season is lost, then in not signing Donaldson the Braves do not lose a prime year of production from him, while still owing him money until he is 37.

These departures would likely leave the payroll in the range of $85 million depending on a number of arbitration salaries. This lost service time would also take away a very cheap year from both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna’s contracts, as well as the other young pieces like Mike Soroka and Max Fried. Additionally this would leave Freddie Freeman with one year left on his contract, as well as Travis d’Arnaud, Mike Foltynewicz, and Adam Duvall, as well as Charlie Culberson on a minor league contract.

As much as having a faceless corporation as the owners of the Braves may annoy many fans, this may allow the Braves to keep payroll more consistent than other teams whose owners may be more financially reliant on their team. This could prove useful entering an off-season with many talented free agents with an Atlanta team that would have a lot of needs. At the very least, the Braves would need a middle of the order bat, and a backup catcher, but could also stand to improve the outfield, bullpen, rotation, and third base, as well as needing to sign a lot of depth. This would also deprive many prospects and young players like Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and a host of young pitchers and other prospects of a year to develop and be able to fill in the holes that the major league roster would develop.

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As I mentioned previously there would be a talented free agency class. This would also be a very chaotic off-season, given that teams would be coming off of a over a year without game revenue. This financial uncertainty could lead to some very weird deals being signed in free agency and could force some less financially stable teams to trade away talented players to cut payroll. The free agency class would include Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcus Semien, J.T. Realmuto, as well as a host of other talented players. A list of the top 20 free agents can be found here. Many of the names discussed in trade rumors from last off-season could also be available such as Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, and Francisco Lindor.

This would be, if nothing else, an unpredictable off-season with a lot of uncertainty, especially for a team like the Braves with a lot of needs that wants to compete.