So it looks like we're getting a DH.
As a whole, NL teams stand to suffer in 2020 with the addition of the DH, as their rosters were not constructed with a DH in mind. That said, nobody cares if we whine about it, so what type of lineup should Snit roll out against both lefties and righties with a DH? Let's take a look at the options.
Ronald Acuña Jr.
After an extremely thorough examination of Ronnie's numbers I have decided that he should probably play every day.
Ender Inciarte
With no DH, Ender obviously starts against all righties, but it's a bit murkier against lefties. I am of the opinion that he should be out there every day because of his defense, but with the DH being added, I definitely want Ender out there every day. Also worth noting that if Ender is in center every day, Junya can settle into RF where his arm plays best.
Inciarte is a perennial xwOBA overperformer, Ivan has explained it many times, and that's how I learned it. He hits those looping liners at the perfect launch angle to rack up singles. I miss it. So, I'll ignore his xwOBA and give his wRC+ splits. He should be starting against righties, posting 94, 101, 94, and 94 from 2016-2019, more than good enough with his defense. He only had 44 AB's against lefties this year posting a wRC+ of 89, which would be great if we could count on that against lefties, but SSS. With 104(!!!), 88, and 82 from 2016-2018, I think Ender deserves the benefit of the doubt and should be out there every day.
Ender was a 3 WAR guy as recently as 2018, and put up 9 total from 2016-2018. I want to give him the chance to rebound, especially because if he puts it back together he's still on that sexy sexy contract.
Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna will be playing every day. I think there is a good chance he gets his fair share of games at DH instead of solely LF. Ozuna's defense has been largely meh to good throughout his career, except for 2016 when Miami tried him extensively in CF before realizing that neither he nor Yelich could capably play center (-17 DRS for Ozuna in CF in 2016, -12 for Yelich in 2017, yikes). He should be out there every day, with more off days than usual to give time to our plethora of other options, especially if the season features few off days and scheduled doubleheaders.
Nick Markakis
Markakis has been the subject of thousands of debates on TC since he came here as a free agent, but the truth is he can still hit righties. He posted a .361 xwOBA against righties last year, compared to just .310 against lefties. He should not see the outfield often, but he should be the regular DH against righties and get very very few AB's seeing lefties.
With the 82 game season, one of the things I'm most looking forward is the innovative strategy Snit's going to have to figure out to get Markakis 162 starts.
Austin Riley
We all know the deal with Riley. He came up and lit the world on fire then we didn't hear a peep from him the last two months of the season. Personally, I'm still fully on board the Riley train but he does have a lot to prove. Since he was in the outfield most of last year because of all the rain at third base, the only defensive data I could find was basically limited to LF. Following him as a prospect, the general trend from fangraphs among others seemed to have defensive questions go away as he progressed as a defender going up the ladder.
Riley is the biggest wild card we have on offense. If he comes back as the hitter we say in May last year, we plug him in at third and reap the benefits. If he is the same hitter as the end of last year, Camargo will get the majority of the starts at third. We will almost assuredly see a version of Riley somewhere in between those other two versions. I have no earthly idea who the starter will be at third to open the year, but whoever is not the starter will likely get some chances at DH against lefties. More often than not, that should be Riley. It doesn't matter if both Johan and Riley hit lefties better than they hit righties because Riley's xwOBA against lefties sat at .386 last year compared to a putrid .279 against righties. That .386 mark is buoyed by his early production as his xwOBA against lefties after July 1 is below .300, but we'll really need to see how he looks early in the season before deciding on a regular lineup.
Johan Camargo
I really want Johan to succeed and this strange season might facilitate that for him. Before, we had questions about which one of Riley or Camargo would be the starter at third and which would be in Gwinnett. Now, both will be in the majors, though we still do not know who the starter will be. Again, Camargo and Riley have been discussed endlessly on TC, so I will not bother comparing them in a vacuum. Instead, I will note that if Riley is the starter, Johan will likely rotate around the infield and DH and try again to be a valuable super-utility player.
Camargo's xwOBA's and quality of contact in general make me sad:(
Adam Duvall
One of the big winners with the addition of the DH, Duvall seems likely to get his fair share of starts at DH against lefties, though it may even be worth it to put Duvall in LF and let Ozuna DH. Duvall is a very solid defender, which the numbers have backed up until this past year, with both his UZR/150 and DRS dropping off drastically in a very small sample size. Going by UZR/150, Duvall's 3 previous years were all good to great with 7.5, 4.7, and 11.2 before falling all the way to -0.7 this past year. Going by DRS, his previous 3 years went 15, 11, 16 before posting only 1 in 2019. However, DRS is cumulative and he played only 239 innings in the outfield last year. A full season of defensive data is not enough to analyze, and since Duvall's "decline" came in about 16% of a full season, I'll trust the previous 3 years of data while accepting he has gotten a couple years older.
Offensively, Duvall has been polarizing since coming to Atlanta. He had that miserable stretch in 2018, but also hit a monster playoff dong which has a way of endearing a player to the city he plays in. Ignoring feelings, he ran a .372 xwOBA against lefties last year, which I would be more than happy with as our DH against lefties.
Charlie Culberson
Charlie, Charlie, Charlie. What are we going to do with you. Everybody loves Charlie Culberson. He's Charlie Clutch. We do not know if he would have made the team on a normal 26 man roster, but now that we are likely to see a taxi squad/expanded rosters, Charlie is going to be here. I love Charlie and love seeing him succeed, but Snit will inevitably give him a few starts at DH, and I don't know if I'm cool with that. It will be unfortunate when we lose his bat to the DH when he's on the mound, though. Keep on keeping on Charlie.
WILD CARD
I am not throwing out the idea of AA acquiring a legitimate DH once the transaction freeze is gone. AL teams have such a defined advantage already, and the Braves are less prepared for the addition of a DH than just about every other NL contender. Since not many teams will be looking for a pure DH, the acquisition cost should be low.
Honestly, I do not know who we would even target, but one idea (that admittedly may be searching for past production):
Khris Davis is on a 2 year 33.5m contract. Khris Davis was worth -1 WAR last year. I doubt we had payroll space remaining even before the global pandemic, so this might be unfeasible in addition to potentially not helping the team. HOWEVER, from 2015-2018, Davis's wRC+ went 122, 122, 130, 136 before collapsing to a measly 81 last year. The A's can not be thrilled about Davis taking 17% of their payroll when they do not know what production they are getting from him this year. The contract looks underwater currently (Smart person: "So why do you want him, idiot?" Me: "dingerz") so if the A's gave us an asset to take Davis (again, how likely is this), that's something I would be very interested in.
Will Khris Davis be a Brave? Almost assuredly no. But I wrote this fanpost and I like Khris Davis so make it happen Coppy AA.
That said, if AA goes out an gets a DH, I think it will likely be a platoon masher for a low cost. Possibilities:
C.J. Cron: Signed with the Tigers this offseason; with his consent they could trade him to us; 6 mil prorated for the season; 160 wRC+ against LHP last year
Phillip Ervin: Lotssssss of outfielders in Cincy; good fielder; 164 wRC+ against LHP last year
Matt Joyce: 131 wRC+ against RHP last year; seems like he had a pretty good year; feels like we could bring him back for cheap to mash righties; he was a great fit and oop he's gone.
Conclusions
Ronnie and Ozuna will be out there just about every day. Ender should, but we don't know if he will. Markakis should DH against righties, Duvall and Riley should DH against lefties, with Duvall maybe getting some time in left to let Ozuna DH. A platoon masher from either side would help us pretty significantly, especially a lefty hitter because our depth is unspectacular. The Braves are pretty significantly disadvantaged with the addition of a DH, but if we get baseball this year I for one will not care.
Let me know what I missed, who I missed, what you think, and anything else in between. Go Braves, baby.
P.S. Barry Bonds's career wRC+ against righties was 205.
205
