What should the Braves do about Austin Riley?

Going into the 2019 season, the Braves’ plan on how to handle Austin Riley seemed pretty clear. They would allow Riley, MLB Pipeline’s No. 32 overall prospect, another season to develop in Triple-A and try him out in the outfield to increase the chance of getting some major league at-bats. After signing a one-year contract, Josh Donaldson would be manning third base most games as a stopgap until Riley was hopefully ready for the majors. If Donaldson or someone else was injured and Riley was playing well, then Riley would likely get called up.

However, Riley has forced the Braves’ hand by destroying Triple-A pitching. He currently leads the International League with 14 home runs, 94 total bases, 31 runs, and 35 RBI. His OPS stands at 1.047, and his wRC+ is 159. Significantly, his strikeout rate is 19.7 percent, down from 29.3 percent last year in Triple-A. In his last 17 games, he has batted .400 while driving in 26 runs and belting 12 home runs, one of which was measured at 492 feet. To call these video game numbers would be a tremendous compliment to one’s gaming skills.

Obviously, many Braves fans are clamoring to see Riley in the majors, and the Braves’ Front Office is clearly taking the possibility of promoting Riley seriously, as evidenced by the fact that Riley has now started in left field in four of his last five games in Gwinnett after previously playing solely at third base. This appears to indicate that the organization views Riley as ready and are now trying to fit him onto the roster somewhere.

However, there is no clear path for Riley. The Braves signed Donaldson for $23 million this season, and if he is healthy, you can expect him to play third base. The Braves could move Ronald Acuña, Jr. to center field, thus effectively replacing Ender Inciarte with Riley. The Braves have some options, but each could have significant repercussions. Here are some of the Braves’ options in how to deal with Riley at this point:

Keep Riley in Triple-A until an injury occurs or until closer to the trade deadline

Pros: Consider this option the “let things naturally play their course” option. The Braves wouldn’t need to make any long-term changes. Given Donaldson’s injury history, it is highly possible that he will spend some time on IL and allow the Braves to avoid moving major league players off their roster at a time in the season that significant trades are hard to make.

Cons: Riley could continue to defile baseballs in Gwinnett County instead of Cobb County. I wouldn’t say at this point that there should be any concern about stunting his development, but the Braves would obviously prefer that his offense increase their playoffs chances instead of making a spectacle just down the road. While watching Riley hit homer after homer in Triple-A is amusing, it could grow frustrating not seeing him contribute to a major league team that has hovered around .500 all season.

Trade Ender Inciarte

This has perhaps been the most popular suggestion among Braves fans, at least on Twitter. While Inciarte’s spot in the lineup is the easiest one to upgrade, it’s not that simple.

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Pros: If Riley can look like half of the hitter he does in Triple-A, it would be a big boost to the Braves’ offense to put him in the lineup where Inciarte once was. While known much more for his defensive prowess, Inciarte is hitting a measly 63 wRC+ this season and 22 wRC+ in the month of May. Not even his defense, which hasn’t even been very good this season, has been able to salvage his value thus far, as he is playing below replacement level overall.

Cons: For the same reasons the Braves might want to move Inciarte, other teams won’t be willing to give much value in return. While I doubt that Inciarte will continue to play below replacement level (if for no other reason than defensive improvement) and he will be paid $8 million or less per season through the 2021 season, his value is undeniably at rock-bottom right now. There would likely be a team or two willing to take him on due to his team-friendly contract, but the Braves can’t expect to get much in return.

Additionally, May is not an ideal time to make significant trades anyways. Clubs, including the Braves, are still trying to figure out what they have and how serious their playoff chances are. The more clubs have clarity on their outlook, the more teams are willing to engage in trade talks. Simply put, there will be fewer suitors right now in any trade, which means less bargaining power and likely less in return than in a July trade.

Option Inciarte

There is a massive caveat here: due to Inciarte having more than five years of service time, he would have to consent to being optioned to Triple-A. If the Braves decided to option him, Inciarte would have the right to be released from the team, and the Braves would still be on the hook for the remainder of his salary owed under the contract. The Braves would not make such a move, especially given their seemingly genuine commitment to no longer having dead money. However, there’s nothing stopping them from speaking to Inciarte about whether he would be willing to consent to an assignment. My guess is that Inciarte would say “no way,” which would lead to an awkward forced marriage situation.

Option or trade Johan Camargo

Pros: Camargo’s season has not been off to a good start despite some big hits in key spots. He currently holds a -0.2 fWAR on the season. While some of that slow start can be attributed to him changing to a super-utility/bench role, it might not be a bad time to move him in case he never does adjust well. The Braves already have Charlie Culberson who continues to impress playing all over the diamond, so the Braves could afford to move Camargo while his value is still good.

Optioning Camargo is also possible. However, as explained below, I think it would be a worse mismanagement of the third base situation than leaving Riley in Triple-A for the time being.

Cons: Moving Camargo would clear a roster spot, but it wouldn’t necessarily get Riley at-bats. Unless Inciarte would be moved to the bench, Riley would be coming off the bench where players with more positional flexibility are preferred. Inciarte would not be a good bench player, either, as he offers little more than an outfield defensive substitution or pinch runner. In short, the bench would suffer with both Riley and Inciarte on the active roster.

Regarding optioning Camargo, it would feel like a mismanagement of Camargo’s talent. He is coming off a 3.3 fWAR season only to be relegated to the bench before being sent to the minors. While it’s certainly reasonable that the Braves wanted to upgrade at third base, having Camargo on such a short leash in a new role seems worse than the status quo. It doesn’t seem like a move that would be accepted well in the locker room nor by outsiders.

Trade Josh Donaldson

I hesitate to mention this option but do so only because I have seen it discussed an uncomfortable amount lately.

Pros: Riley could take over at the position that the Braves hope his occupies for the next several years.

Cons: The Braves already have a good third baseman. Donaldson is currently slashing .258/.376/.477 with 0.8 fWAR and 129 wRC+. Considering that he is in the 96th percentile in exit velocity and 95th percentile in hard hit percentage, it still seems like his already-impressive numbers don’t reflect just how well he’s been hitting the ball. Why put pressure on Riley to outperform these numbers?

There are so many reasons why trading Donaldson to make room for Riley would be a terrible move, but suffice it to say, it would be insanely stupid.

Move to a seven-man bullpen and five-man bench

Pros: The Braves would not have to trade or option any position players. As noted above, trading a position player at this point in the season would be difficult, and this avoids having to do so.

Cons: The bullpen is already short on reliable relievers, and Brian Snitker hasn’t instilled confidence that he handles an eight-man bullpen well. If the Braves continue to carry a long reliever in case of situations like this week when Max Fried was hit with a come-backer, this leaves only six short-inning relievers, many of whom are out of options (like Luke Jackson, Josh Tomlin, Johnny Venters, Jerry Blevins, and Jesse Biddle). When factoring in who is actually available for a game (i.e. who hasn’t pitched too much recently), the Braves’ bullpen options would get slim very quickly. While the Braves have been and would continue to need to shuttle pitchers with options to Gwinnett, bear in mind that a player must remain in the minors for at least ten days before being recalled (unless there is an injury). Thus, it is easy to see how tricky and potentially taxing this could get on a bullpen that has already been a point of consternation for the Braves.

Such a move also wouldn’t get Riley any at-bats. In fact, it would create a logjam on the bench. As explained above, neither Inciarte nor Riley would be suited well for a bench role. There aren’t enough at-bats to go around to make a bench full of Riley/Inciarte, Camargo, Culberson, Joyce, and McCann/Flowers make sense. The value of having another reliever available would significantly outweigh having so many bench players vying for a few at-bats.

The Braves should exercise patience while exploring trade options.

In my opinion, the Braves should remain patient. I am sure that Alex Anthopoulos is continuing to gauge any interest that teams might have in Inciarte, as he is the most obvious trade candidate. Considering that Riley is ready for the majors and that Christian Pache and Drew Waters are having similar success in Double-A that Riley is having in Triple-A, Inciarte is expendable. However, trade options are likely to be significantly better closer to the trade deadline on July 31, especially if Inciarte can improve his value between now and then.

If the Braves cannot find reasonable offers for Inciarte and assuming that he would not consent to going to Triple-A, the Braves’ best course is to sit tight. Situations like this tend to work themselves out. If Donaldson, Acuña, Inciarte, or Markakis get injured, then a path will be cleared for Riley. If not, the Braves might find a trade suitor in a couple months.

What the Braves shouldn’t do is weaken the bullpen by squeezing Riley onto the active roster. It would make the Braves’ biggest weakness potentially weaker. The offensive boost gained from adding Riley to the lineup could be all but negated by the damage done by having fewer relievers available. Bear in mind that you can never assume that even a hitter as hot as Riley will transition smoothly to the majors. While it is probably safe to assume Riley would provide an offensive boost over Inciarte, until we see him hit against major league pitchers, we won’t know about how much of a boost such a move might provide.

Nor should the Braves make an impatient move by getting poor value for Inciarte via trade. Such a move would be myopic and could backfire if Riley has trouble adjusting to major league pitching.

The Braves seem poised to make a splash at the trade deadline. They already have money to spend and prospects to deal for the right price. Throwing Inciarte into a deal could add value to the deal if he is able to improve between now and then. If the Braves could bolster their pitching staff via trade and clear a spot for Riley, they could be serious contenders. There is no need to get impatient and give away bargaining chips at a discount now.