Austin Riley was finally promoted to Atlanta on Tuesday evening, shortly after the Braves lost to the Cardinals in a game where Ender Inciarte went down with a minor injury. For those not familiar with Riley, he was destroying the ball in Triple-A with a .299/.377/.681 triple slash line to go with his 15 homers in just 37 games so far this year.
History of Austin Riley
If you don’t remember the 2015 MLB Draft, Austin Riley was the 41st pick of the first round that year — a competitive balance pick that was acquired from the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel deal. Riley was a guy many thought was going to be a pitcher at the next level at the time of the draft, but the Braves knew immediately that his future was at the hot corner. He was also a Mississippi prep bat, a category that usually scares teams away due to a very poor historical track record.
Riley came in and posted a .933 OPS with 12 homers between Danville and the Gulf Coast League that season, raising his profile a bit. However there were real questions at the time about his ability to catch up to premium velocity due to subpar bat speed, as well as real questions about his ability to field third base at an adequate level.
Riley started 2016 in Rome and hit 20 homers with a .803 OPS, adding 39 doubles as well. It was this season where he started his trend of starting slow and finishing hot as he had a .696 OPS through mid-June, and an .895 mark the rest of the way.
In 2017, Riley started in High-A, but finished in Double-A on his way to hitting another 20 homers to go with a .786 OPS. He then closed the season with a strong stretch in the Arizona Fall League, where all he did was hit .300/.364/.657 with six homers in just 17 games.
The 2018 season saw Riley inch closer to the big leagues, as he started in Double-A and finished up in Triple-A. By now Riley was really rounding his game into place, and he managed a .882 OPS with 19 homers despite playing in 21 games fewer than un each of the previous two seasons thanks to a minor knee injury.
His Weaknesses
I hit on his two biggest perceived weaknesses in the history section, the defensive questions as well as the lack of bat speed to handle premium velocity. These questions have followed Riley for the longest time, particularly the bat speed. However Riley has answered these questions within the past year and a half or so.
Riley has transformed his body since being drafted. He was a big kid coming out of high school, and while he’s still not a small guy, it is worth noting that he’s gotten his body into great shape. Riley has gone from potential liability at third to a guy who can be a borderline plus defender, similar to how Nolan Arenado worked his way into being a high-level defender, despite also having some of his own defensive questions early in his pro career.
Most importantly, Riley has improved his bat speed. He’s no longer the guy that can be beaten inside with premium velocity, and has become a much harder out for a pitcher. With this improved bat speed and plate coverage, it is easier to project Riley having a solid hit tool to go with his enormous power.
The other thing that’s been a small issue for Riley is the fact he’s started slow every year and caught fire in the second half. This has become an every year thing with him. While he did start this year slow, he may have finally broken the cycle a bit, as he started to get hot before the end of April and then continued it into May. While this doesn’t really impact the final stat lines for Riley, it would be a huge help to the team if he was able to produce at a consistent level.
What He Brings
Austin Riley brings a lot of power to the table. In fact, he may be the best true power hitter in the organization. This is a guy that can easily hit 25 to 30 homers in a season on a consistent basis. That’s a conservative projection as well, as he certainly has the raw power to do even more than that.
Riley has improved his bat speed and plate coverage, as I had already mentioned, and he’s become a much better hitter in general over the past two seasons. Riley was once thought to be a power guy without a ton of on-base skills, but now could be a guy that’s capable of hitting for some average and getting on base at a decent clip. A .260/.350/.500 triple slash wouldn’t feel out of the question once he gets his footing in the big leagues.
Riley is also a potentially plus defender at third base, but due to the presence of Josh Donaldson he would only fill in when giving Donaldson a day off — a role he can also play at first to give Freddie Freeman some time off. The ticket to playing time for Riley is in left field, a spot that he’s only started to play this spring. I would expect there to be some learning curve at his new defensive home, but he should be able to adequately handle the spot.
Expectations
Riley is likely a guy who struggles a bit early. It makes sense as he’s a guy who takes some time to adjust to a new level. However he will make those adjustments and be a guy who improves the Braves’ lineup the rest of the way. He can easily still hit 15-20 homers if he receives the consistent playing time he needs, while providing the Braves that big power threat that they occasionally appear to lack.
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