The future of the Braves’ rotation is already here

There is a common adage in baseball that if half of your prospects pan out, you’re doing well. That adage is largely supported by statistical analysis, which also suggests that pitching prospects have an even lower success rate. The Braves have been no different through their rebuilding process. There have been many pitching prospects like Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims that were, at some point in their development, touted as potential fixtures in the Braves’ future plans only to see their potential fizzle into mediocre-to-poor results in the big leagues.

Max Fried and Mike Soroka, on the other hand, have emerged as front-of-rotation starters for the Braves. To be clear, the verb tense of my prior statement is important; these two young pitchers have already emerged. We have seen enough already to know that, when healthy, they have the talent, mentality, and pitches to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis.

How good have they been this season? Here are their combined 2019 stats as starters:

Their combined stats as starters this season would place them fifth in ERA, ninth in FIP, tied for 13th in WHIP, and 15th in walk rate amongst qualified starters. The fact that their rates are that good at higher innings pitched is even more impressive.

What won’t appear in stat columns is how valuable they have been on a pitching staff that has endured as much injury and inconsistency as the Braves’ has. The Braves are tied for the second-most starters and overall pitchers used this season. To say that this has been a pitching staff thirsting for stability is an understatement. In their 10 combined starts, Fried and Soroka have allowed more than two earned runs in only one start. Soroka has yet to surrender more than one earned run in a start this season. That is how two starters can anchor the front end of a rotation.

While their production this season has been impressively similar, Fried and Soroka have developed quite differently. Fried was drafted out of high school in Los Angeles as the seventh overall pick in the 2012 by the San Diego Padres. As Fried was making it through the Padres farm system, he had to have Tommy John surgery in 2014. While recovering from the surgery, he was traded the the Braves as one of the key pieces in the Justin Upton trade. Featuring a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball and devastating curveball, Fried moved through the Braves’ system quickly and made his major league debut in 2017.

Even upon making it to the majors, however, Fried was not given a set role, instead bouncing around between the bullpen and making spot starts. Even entering the 2019, Fried’s role was undetermined, as he made two relief appearances before his first start. While Fried performed well as a reliever, his splits always indicated that he excelled as a starter. And since being given a shot at a rotation spot this season, Fried hasn’t looked back.

Fried has pitched like a true front-line starter in 2019. As a starter, he sports the eighth-lowest ERA and lowest walk rate amongst all qualified starters. And it’s not just Braves fans who are noticing how good Fried has been:

What has made Fried elite this season is his repertoire and his success against hitters from both sides of the plate. He has not discriminated in getting batters out. Righties are slashing .216/.260/.371 against him while lefties are slashing .217/.250/.283. Meanwhile, Fried features a curveball that is in the 92nd percentile in spin rate and a fastball that is in the 71st percentile in velocity, per Statcast. Enjoy:

Soroka’s development and path to major league success have been markedly different from Fried’s. Soroka was selected as the 28th pick in the 2015 draft out of high school in Calgary by the Braves. He was able to adjust his approach to have success at each level despite not having any jaw-dropping put-away pitches like Fried’s curveball. Soroka rose quickly through the Braves’ farm system with his excellent control and ability to avoid hard contact. At just 20 years old, Soroka made his major league debut for the Braves in 2018.

Since arriving in the majors, Soroka has done nothing but impress:

Producing such numbers in MLB before turning 22 is nothing short of spectacular. Soroka’s 2.37 ERA is the fifth lowest recorded before turning 22 since 2000 (with a minimum of 40 innings pitched), and his 2.56 FIP is second to only Stephen Strasburg with the same qualifiers.

Soroka’s key to success this year has been growing confidence in his sinker and slider, both pitches with downward movement, to avoid hard contact:

Soroka’s delivery, control, never-rattled demeanor, and cerebral approach have drawn undeniable comparisons to a right-handed Tom Glavine. While such comparisons might be lofty at this point, it is undeniable that Soroka has ace potential, and his ability to make adjustments bodes well for the long term.

Both Fried and Soroka have had injury histories that make it prudent to temper expectations. However, it is difficult not to gush over the potential of these two pitchers. In Soroka and Fried, the Braves have a lefty-righty 1-2 punch that they can build around. With top prospects like Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, and Ian Anderson lurking and Mike Foltynewicz coming off of an All-Star season, there is plenty of reason for excitement in Atlanta.