Is it too much to label tonight’s game against the Dodgers a must win for the Braves?
Of Course! It’s Baseball! It’s May!
Logically speaking, that label is a bit dramatic. Yet I feel there is some sense behind it. With the Braves playing their first of four straight series against four of the five best teams in the National League, every chance at a win is critical. While no team is running off with the NL East in the early going, losing more than 10 games in April where they had the lead at one point in each of those games really shrinks the Braves’ margin for error.
As a result, the Braves must make up for the potential wins that got away by being victorious in games where trends and match-ups are in their favor. Thankfully for Atlanta, tonight seems to be one of those nights.
After last night’s 5-3 loss to the Dodgers, the Braves will send pinch-running extraordinaire Max Fried to the mound. On the season, Fried (2.11 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.41 xFIP) has recorded four wins and only one loss. While he certainly started the season off in dominant fashion, he came back down to earth a bit against Colorado. Fried did not give up a home run in his first three starts of the season. He has surrendered four home runs over his past three. While regression has settled in a bit, Fried regained some of his dominant form last time out against the Padres. Overall, he still gives the Braves the best chance to win among pitchers not named Soroka.
Fried certainly improves the Braves chances against the Dodgers since he is a southpaw. Left handed batters are only producing a .533 OPS against Fried this season. The Dodgers top four hitters in 2019 (according to wOBA) who have had 90 or more plate appearances are all left handed. As a whole, Dodgers left handed batters have produced a .963 OPS against right handed pitching. That falls to a .832 OPS against left handed pitching. Furthermore, the Dodgers right handed hitters are producing a .710 OPS against lefties so far in 2019.
The Dodgers rank fourth in baseball in wOBA against righties, but drop to thirteenth in wOBA against lefties. The Braves offense actually is a complete 180 from the Dodgers so far this season. The Braves rank thirteenth in wOBA against right handed pitching, but improve to fourth against lefties. The Braves overall record against lefties stands at 6-3, while the Dodgers are 7-6.
While Atlanta certainly seems to be the better of the two teams against southpaws, they certainly have a tough one to face tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2.55 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.55 xFIP) will look to continue his impressive comeback tour on Tuesday. A key to Ryu’s success has been his amazing ability at limiting walks. He has walked only two batters on the season, compared to registering 39 strikeouts. His 19.50 SO/BB ratio is the best mark in that category in 137 years for a pitcher who has thrown at least 35 innings to begin a season. Bert Dorr was the last to complete the feat in 1882 for the St. Louis Brown Stockings.
Of course, Ryu’s historic pace comes as a result of consistently throwing strikes. While Ryu has given up only 10 runs, eight of them have come as the result of a home run. Ryu has surrendered six long balls overall, with at least one coming in five of his six starts. If Fried can do his job and keep the game a low scoring affair, chances are the Braves may have a couple of opportunities to put one in the seats.
Overall, it should be another fun game to watch. With Clayton Kershaw taking the hill tomorrow, the Braves need Fried to be at his best as their stopper tonight. While a win tonight may not need to be labeled as a must, it certainly is not far-fetched to identify it as much needed.
WPA- Josh Donaldson- Since his game winner against Colorado, Donaldson has gone hitless in four of five games he has appeared. Ryu has yielded a 1.500 OPS against hitters from the 2 spot in the lineup this year. On a big stage and in a game the Braves certainly need to win, Donaldson seems like the perfect candidate to deliver the big hit.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Tuesday, May 7, 10:10 p.m. ET
Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California
TV: Fox Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Rock 100.5, Braves Radio Network
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