While not ideal, last night’s loss should not be one we let linger.

Aaron Nola seems to be a talent that gets lost in the shuffle when it comes to discussing the National League’s best young pitchers. He certainly was on a mission to validate that statement last night, and he did. The Braves were simply shut down by a talented pitcher who threw one of the best games of his season last night. Now, Atlanta finds itself in a familiar position in which they have prospered in many times before.

Atlanta has now lost two in a row for only the second time since the beginning of June. They responded to two straight losses back on June 5th and 6th by winning 10 out of their next 11. Obviously, responding to last night’s loss with a win tonight carries a bit more significance due to the opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are now 5-2 against Atlanta on the season. Atlanta is a much better team now than the one that was swept in Philadelphia to begin the season. However, the Phillies have had the upper hand so far this year.

Last night’s pitching duel had a playoff feel to it. Both Dallas Keuchel and Aaron Nola were on their games, with Nola simply making less mistakes. Keuchel pitched a wonderful game, and with this offense, likely wins 70% to 80% of the time with his stat line.

As has been mentioned, Keuchel’s effectiveness is a nice positive to take away from the loss. However, the biggest stat of the night could be the fact Keuchel threw seven innings. In 2019, the Braves are 24th in the majors with 10 games where a starter pitched seven or more innings. While the Braves bullpen has weathered the storm quite well, they have been used quite a bit. If the Atlanta starters can work deeper into games, it can keep the bullpen arms fresh. And because of Keuchel’s efforts last night, those fresh arms could make an immediate impact tonight.

The Braves will send Bryse Wilson (8.31 ERA, 5.63 FIP, xFIP 4.66) to the mound to face the Phillies for the second time in his career. Wilson will be making his fourth career start, including his third this season. While he has certainly shown flashes of his significant talent, the early results for Wilson have been underwhelming. One common note from his first two starts has been that Wilson has made his way through the first part of the order pretty easily, only allowing two runs (his only mistake was to Kyle Schwarber in the early going against the Cubs). However, it is the second time through the order where he has run into issues.

As the xFIP above shows, not all of that fault lies with Wilson. Defensive blunders have unfortunately contributed as well. However, it seems that batters do have an easier time making hard contact once they see Wilson a second time. As a result, the Braves could truly treat this as a playoff game. If he experiences trouble early, the Braves may be wise in featuring a bullpen where some of their best arms have had multiple days of rest.

On the mound for Philadelphia will be Nick Pivetta (5.63 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 4.55 xFIP). After last year’s potential breakout season, Pivetta has struggled in the first half of 2019. A big reason for the results thus far could be a K rate that has declined from 27.1% to 19.4%. Not only are more balls being hit, more of them are being hit hard. Pivetta’s LD% allowed and Hard Hit % allowed are both more than 10% higher than they were in 2018.

The Braves have had very good success against Pivetta, which is a welcome sight coming off last night’s performance. Over 11.1 career innings, the Braves have produced eight runs off 16 hits, including four homeruns. Three of those home runs were hit on June 14th when the Braves beat the Phillies 9-8.

There is no denying that the Braves and their fans hope Bryse Wilson can put together a start like he had against the Pirates last year. However, the Phillies have a good lineup, so the Braves must be prepared if Wilson runs into trouble. Furthermore, the Braves offense needs to bounce back to life quickly. If they can get to Pivetta early, the Braves have also had success against the Phillies’ bullpen. In what likely will be an offensive game, you have to feel good for the Braves chances.

Tonight should feel like a playoff game, because if the Braves win, they have a very good chance of being five or more games up in the division heading into the All-Star Break. Furthermore, they will go into the rubber game with Mike Soroka taking the mound. The Phillies may be 5-2 against us on the year, but our offense has clearly proven we are the better team. Tonight is the perfect night to prove that once again.

WPA- Brian McCann- The last time the Braves faced Pivetta and the Phillies, McCann had his best game of the year. With another needed win against the Phillies, perhaps McCann can conjure up the magic a second time to help Atlanta earn a victory.

(If Flowers Starts, then I will go with Freddie. This is not cheating, it is simply being proactively creative.)

Game Info

Time/Date: Wednesday, July 3, 7:20 pm ET

Location: SunTrust Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: Fox Sports Southeast

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Rock 100.5, Braves Radio Network