When the Braves signed Josh Donaldson to a one-year, $23 million deal last winter, it was met with a mixture of skepticism and excitement from interested parties. Coming off an injury-riddled 2018 season in which he played just 52 games, Donaldson appeared to be a shell of his former self, and Atlanta seemingly had greater needs. Fast-forward to the end of July, and Donaldson has fulfilled and exceeded every expectation that was heaped upon him when the Braves tabbed him as their everyday third baseman. With good health and great production, Donaldson has likely afforded himself the opportunity to demand a multi-year deal this offseason. Should the Braves be the club that gives him that contract? Let’s examine some of the factors that will dictate whether the Braves should choose to give Donaldson a multi-year deal.
Money
This is obvious, but also a necessary consideration and talking point. The Braves are not a club that traditionally hands out lucrative long-term commitments, and are even less prone to giving those commitments to players in their 30’s. Donaldson would likely require something north of his current average annual value of $23 million, despite the increased total value. If Donaldson and his agent come to the Braves with a demand of three years, $75 million, would you give him that much? Or would you feel more comfortable at two years, $60 million? These are just ballpark figures, but with a five-win season within his grasp, Donaldson is a very real candidate to get offers in this range. Whether the Braves choose to oblige remains to be seen, but make no mistake, Donaldson will be paid handsomely for his services.
Opportunity Cost
Should the Braves allow Josh Donaldson to leave this offseason, they would be left with two realistic alternatives at third base: Austin Riley and Johan Camargo. Both Riley and Camargo have seen their respective stocks rise and fall precipitously throughout the season, and that inconsistency only serves to increase the value of Donaldson returning. For a team in the midst of a contention window, as the Braves currently are, banking reliable production is a necessity. Assuming health, Donaldson provides much more reliability than either Riley or Camargo at this stage. Losing that production would severely limit the ceiling for Atlanta over the next couple of seasons without major leaps for either Riley or Camargo, as Donaldson not only occupies third base, but also bats in the fourth spot for the Braves.
Health
This category is difficult to approach with any conviction because it could change so quickly, especially given Donaldson’s recent injury history. The good news is that Donaldson has been on the field all season, and lingering calf issues from the past two seasons appear to have subsided. If he can remain healthy for the final two months of the season, Donaldson will have quieted much of the concern about his health, which will only increase his price tag this offseason. The Braves have to be considerate of how Donaldson could hold up over the life of any contract and be convinced that paying him beyond 2020 will not be in vain due to injury.
Chemistry
There is no quantifiable value in having good team chemistry, and deciphering whether a team has good chemistry from outside the clubhouse is an exercise in futility, but I am going to mention this anyway. Josh Donaldson has been a welcome addition to a young Braves team. With an MVP Award in his recent past, a wealth of knowledge to share with young players, and an infectious confidence that radiates on the field, Donaldson has all the characteristics of a veteran team leader. The on-field production is vital, but veteran leadership is often a necessity for ascending teams. There, we got through it.
Production
In the end, this is the most important consideration for the Braves with regards to a Donaldson extension. Can Donaldson, 33, continue to produce at a five-win pace over the next two or three seasons? As with all aging stars, regression will come, but projecting a timetable for that regression is vital in determining potential surplus value. Thus far in 2019, Donaldson has produced 3 fWAR, with a pace for around 4.5 fWAR. At $9 million/WAR, Donaldson will have produced roughly $17 million in surplus value this season if he finishes with 4.5 fWAR. With a 131 wRC+ and .376 wOBA, Donaldson is essentially producing at the same level as when he was a member of the Oakland Athletics in 2014. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos believed he could replicate that production then, but that proposition seemed much less risky when Donaldson was only 28. Will Anthopoulos once again feel compelled to retain Donaldson with a multi-year commitment?
Verdict
Given their current trajectory and path, the Braves can ill-afford to let Donaldson leave Atlanta this offseason. His steady production has provided the Braves with a consistent threat behind Freddie Freeman, not for the sake of protection, but for the sake of driving in runs. The Atlanta offense exploded in early-June, which is when Donaldson found his stride, and he has since been one of the best hitters in baseball. Having Donaldson as a mainstay in the Braves lineup beyond 2019 should be a priority, assuming the price point is reasonable. A willingness to give Donaldson three years may be the breaking point, but even at three years, $75 million the Braves could see surplus value. The risk is high, but necessary, and Donaldson is a proven commodity. Retaining Donaldson could be a key factor in pushing the Braves into World Series contention, which may have already happened this season.
Now let’s hear your thoughts. Should Donaldson be brought back at his market value?
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