The Talking Chop 2020 MLB Draft preview has reached the point of taking a position by position look at the talent available this year. We started on Monday with catcher, and today move to first base.
While the arguable top player in the draft is a first baseman, the overall crop of first base prospects is fairly below average- particularly after a strong draft for the position last year. That’s not to say there aren’t intriguing players, rather it isn’t a spot to specifically focus on this year.
With the Braves not likely to grab a first baseman this year unless they really want someone or someone drops after grabbing two very promising players at the position last spring, we take a look at the top players available at first base. Since the crop drops off pretty quickly, the full writeups will only be for the top five with short writeups for the next five.
The Top 10
- Spencer Torkelson. Arizona State
Even if you don’t agree with the opinion, it’s hard to argue that this isn’t players in the mid to be the top player off the board come June. Spencer Torkelson has teed off against PAC 12 pitching since arriving on campus, hitting 48 homers in his first two seasons and drawing more walks than strikeouts in his career with a slugging percentage over .700 in each season. Tork may or may not be the top player in your opinion, but he’s the top first baseman by a mile and he projects as a legitimate cleanup hitter with big power and on base numbers while also hitting for average.
2. Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
The next tier of first basemen starts with UNC slugger Aaron Sabato, who hit .343 with 18 homers as a freshman last year. Sabato is a draft eligible sophomore, but after his productive 2019 and a strong start to his sophomore year before the season was cancelled the track record with the bat is very impressive. Why Sabato is below Torkelson’s tier is the fact he’s a well below average athlete, which comes into play running the bases and also in the field. Tork brings value everywhere, while Sabato is more of a bat only prospect- something that puts more pressure on his bat. As if that wasn’t enough, Sabato isn’t quite on the same level as Tork with the hit tool- more due to Tork being a plus hitter while Sabato is an average hitter with his plus power. Still Sabato is a guy who can be a middle of the order hitter, and with the universal DH coming in 2020 and potentially beyond, Sabato’s likely got a slight boost coming for that even though he will have to keep hitting.
3. Blaze Jordan, Mississippi HS
Some will put prep phenom Blaze Jordan onto the same tier as Sabato, while others will rank him on the next tier below. I have Jordan on the same tier but quite a bit lower in terms of overall rankings. Jordan is one of the most interesting prospects in the draft, a player who is young for the class after reclassifying into the 2020 class and a player who has produced some heavily viewed tape of him just crushing homers with high exit velos and big distances. Jordan, who comes from the same high school as Austin Riley, has easy plus plus power- but it may only play as plus because the hit tool needs some work in general, before you even factor in the whole Mississippi prep hitter bias. Jordan is going to produce power as a pro, it’s just a matter of how much he can tap into in game, making him a fairly boom or bust prospect.
4. Alec Burleson, East Carolina
East Carolina star two way player Alec Burleson might get a chance to keep pitching some as a pro, but he will be drafted as a hitter rather than a pitcher. Burleson is an advanced hitter without a ton of power in his game- but he does have more in his game that he can unlock with the right coaching. When you add in his great track record of success to the hit tool that’s well above average and some potential for average in game power, there is a lot to like about his bat before you start to look at his other potential defensive homes. The first is pitching since he starred as a lefty pitcher for the Pirates, but as more of a pitchability lefty without plus stuff he projects more as a bat who could give you some innings if needed than a guy you’d be taking for his pitching. The other option is that he can potentially play some corner outfield, though he projects best at first base.
5. Alex Toral, Miami
Alex Toral turned down being a fairly high pick out of high school to attend Miami. Since arriving he has been pretty much what the Hurricanes were expecting, both positively and negatively. Toral has put up huge power numbers, but his swing and miss also means big strikeout numbers. After hitting .161 with a homer as a freshman, Toral was at .293 with 24 homers last year and was at .296 with 5 homers before this season ended. Toral is probably a six hitter in a strong lineup because he is projected to be a below average hitter, but the easy plus power is going to draw attention. Toral is another one of the bat only prospects, so he will really need to produce in order to keep his value.
6. Bobby Seymour, Wake Forest
Wake Forest has been producing some players with huge offensive numbers in recent years and Seymour is the next in line as the 2019 ACC Player of the Year. He is a high end hitter with more average power than a true slugger, which combined with him being a bat only player means he is not quite in the top couple tiers at the position.
7. Kemp Alderman, Mississippi HS
Kemp Alderman produced a 108 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event last summer, something along the lines that got us all excited for Mahki Backstrom last year. Alderman doesn’t have the long track record, but he’s got big power and is a pretty good athlete for a 6’4”, 240 pound former catcher. Alderman may be best off heading to Ole Miss for a few years to continue developing, but it is possible a team falls in love with his big power or big arm if they want to try to put him back behind the plate.
8. Michael Brown, California HS
Michael Brown is another big bodied first baseman with plenty of power potential but happens to be a bat only prospect. In a normal draft it might have been easier to buy him out of his Washington commitment, but in this shortened draft a prep bat only first baseman is a tough way to allocate your bonus pool.
9. Jacob Teter, Florida Southern
Massive D2 slugger Jacob Teter is listed at 6’6” and 225 pounds, and after a strong 2019 he boosted his stock with a big Cape Cod League showing. Teter is a player that has potential to hit for some average and good power, but he comes from a lower level of competition and has a fairly small window against top competition.
10. Niko Kavadas, Notre Dame
Niko Kavadas broke out with the power last year, hitting 12 at Notre Dame before adding 9 in the Cape Cod League in just 154 plate appearances. He was on pace to set a new career high this year as he was at 7 through 13 games. The power is real, but despite some time at other positions in college he is a pro first baseman and also brings swing and miss questions.
Others to Watch
Gavin Casas, Florida HS
Josh Moylan, Maryland HS
Cole Fontenelle, Washington HS
CJ Kayfus, Florida HS
Clay Owens, USC
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