At first glance of the stats, Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley didn’t exactly have a year to remember. If you are a lover of WAR and wRC+, for example, the Braves slugger fell short of expectations.
For people that have watched Riley grow throughout his career, however, there was plenty to be happy with in the odd season that 2020 was. So odd that the best of Austin Riley and the worst of Austin Riley all unfolded in the last series of the season.
What went right
The season started with a duel for the third base spot way back in spring training. Riley and Johan Camargo were rolling in a heated battle when play came to a screeching halt. The third baseman ended his strong spring campaign hitting .375 with four home runs in 14 games, appearing to have Camargo beat out for the job.
Then the world shut down.
Riley was the “Opening Day” third baseman, which is certainly a huge “what went right” for the Braves. His first few weeks were a nightmare. He ended July with just two hits, striking out eight times and walking just twice.
But as the season grew on, Riley was clearly taking better at bats, cutting down his O-Swing percentage quite a bit. He was working counts and while he still had plenty of swing-and-miss in him, he simply looked better at the plate. Unfortunately that’s not always measurable in statistics.
He did have a much improved August when he hit .286 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 22 games.
Overall, his 2020 peripherals were better from his 2019 debut. He walked 7.8 percent of the time and struck out 23.8 percent of the time, a vast improvement from the 36.4 percent the year prior. And he still showed off that raw power we all dream of seeing come to fruition (I mean, did you watch the video above?) with a nearly 43 percent hard hit rate and an exit velocity of 91.0. Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter much when it’s hit right at people, evidenced by his .280 BABIP, the lowest of his entire professional career.
Defensively, he’s still a bit of an enigma in my opinion. A former pitcher, there is little issue with his arm, and he has shown the ability to make pretty darn good plays. Now, he just needs to string it all together consistently, but the days of worrying if he can defensively man the hot corner seem to be behind him. Left field is a horse of a different color. It’s probably better to focus on the infield.
Riley hit a home run in the top of the ninth of Game 1 of the NLCS which proved to be the game-winner. It was definitely a high point of his 2020. After a big go-ahead RBI single a few days later, his fortunes would quickly change in Game 7.
What went wrong
If Riley proved he can handle third base in the field in 2020, the jury is still out with the bat. Yours truly thinks (hopes?) it’s about to all come together, but numbers, as they say, don’t lie.
If you’re into metrics, well, it certainly wasn’t pretty. He had -0.7 bWAR and an 89 wRC+, a number reasonably below average. It’s also fair to point out he was trying to adjust to a new swing and was playing dinged up towards the end of the year.
Of course, Riley’s season ended on the base paths in one of the oddest rundowns in recent history. That’s was probably his ultimate “what went wrong” of 2020.
What’s in store for 2021
Riley will be 24 by Opening Day and while he has played two seasons now, his 131 total games don’t even equal a full year at the big league level.
Why is that a big deal? Riley comes with a lot of question marks, and kind of always has. Will he hit consistently at the big league level? Can he play defensively everyday at third base? Will he be able to hit breaking stuff?
And since we haven’t really seen what he can do over a normal 162 season, the answers to most of those questions are, well, we truly don’t know. Riley is a player who has constantly made adjustments — he did so with his swing entering 2020 and his patience at the plate improved. At the same time more advanced metrics — like a decreased launch angle and a higher ground ball rate than 2019 — were conundrums.
It’s probably fair to expect Riley’s name to come up in some trade rumors here and there. It won’ be the first time and probably not the last. But it would likely take a big move to replace him as the 2021 Opening Day third baseman.
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