Thank you to everyone who sent in questions for this week’s mailbag. It is clear that just about everyone has the offseason on their mind. Hopefully we will see how some of these question marks play out soon. Let’s get to it!
Where do Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussaint fit in the Braves’ future plans, if at all?
I think both still fit in the Braves’ future plans and Atlanta is not in a position where they need to make a decision quickly. Per Cot’s Contracts, Sean Newcomb will not be arbitration-eligible until 2022 (he would have been this coming year, but he didn’t spend enough time on the major league roster this past season) and Toussaint won’t be until 2023. This season didn’t work out for either, but I think there is reason to believe that both could be successful in a relief role. We did not hear much about Newcomb after he was demoted to the alternate site, but he was fine in a relief role in 2019 and I think a return is the correct course of action at this point.
The situation is similar for Toussaint. Atlanta will likely be looking to add a veteran starter to the mix and they have guys like Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller waiting in the wings for an opportunity, not to mention Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson. That may squeeze Toussaint out of the rotation picture altogether. He would profile as a multi-inning relief option but I would kind of like to see what he could do if he really cut things loose in a one-inning scenario.
No matter what the role, this isn’t the same situation that Mike Foltynewicz found himself in. The Braves do not currently need the 40-man roster space and if they do, there are other options, so there is no reason to bail on Newcomb or Toussaint yet.
I wanted to get your take on Joc Pederson as the strong side of a platoon in LF with Adam Duvall. 36 HR against RHP in 2019 and contract should be small enough to allow for spending elsewhere.
Joc Pederson has always been an intriguing name and he often gets overlooked on the Dodgers where there are so many other great players. The regular season numbers were not pretty, but we are talking about 138 plate appearances which could just equate a bad stretch. He looked better in the postseason and the underlying numbers, which is something the Braves care about, look pretty good. He was in the top four percent of the league in exit velocity per Baseball Savant and he actually improved his Hard Hit Rate in 2020 despite the ugly surface stats. He isn’t the best defender in the outfield anymore, but looks like the perfect platoon partner for Adam Duvall.
Eno Sarris recently spotlighted Pederson as one of five intriguing free agents and projected him for a deal in the two-year, $15 million range. If he could be had for anything close to that, then sign me up.
What does Freddie Freeman’s path to the Hall of Fame look like?
The first thing I want to write about this offseason in regards to Freddie Freeman is him winning NL MVP. The second is the Braves locking him up with an extension.
That said, the Hall of Fame thing is interesting and is something that Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe wrote about at FanGraphs last month. The conclusion from Jaffe was that Freeman is a little behind the curve and I think he is right. There is still time for him to make up some ground, but he is going to have to keep producing at a high level through his mid-30s. Winning MVP awards would help, as would a World Series title. Still, the numbers will likely matter and he is going to have to stack up some good WAR totals for the next few years to try and get on the right side of the line. It is something that I am sure we are going to have a lot of fun tracking over the next few seasons.
What do you think about a trade for Lance Lynn? The Rangers need some help at first and OF and the Braves might have a good package that could get the deal done while not dealing away your future team.
This is an interesting question and I think it really comes down to the price. I am wondering if the Rangers made a mistake holding onto Lynn through the Trade Deadline in 2020. It is reasonable to think that they may try to attach a bad contract to him this offseason in hopes of dumping salary. I do not think the Braves would be in play if that was the scenario. I also do not think that Alex Anthopoulos would be interested in trading any of his top tier prospects for one year of Lynn or else he might have been acquired at the deadline in 2020.
Lynn would look pretty good in Atlanta’s rotation but there are a lot of veteran free agent starters available in what appears will be a very depressed market. They may be able to acquire someone much cheaper if they go that route.
MLB Network Radio predicted that Atlanta will not sign Marcell Ozuna, and suggested that the Braves would be interested in a veteran pitcher to help with young guys like Fried/Soroka/Anderson. They also said the Braves could add Michael Brantley for LF and add a starting pitcher in Adam Wainwright. What are your thoughts on either of these ideas?
Michael Brantley was the guy I wanted the Braves to sign two years ago but that never materialized as it appeared Brantley was intent on joining the Astros. He put up two solid seasons in Houston with a 133 wRC+ in 2019 and a 134 wRC+ in 2020. He is 33 years old now and will likely be looking to latch on to a good team for another chance at a playoff run. He could also re-sign with the Astros, which could very well be the plan, especially if they lose George Springer. My thoughts would be that Brantley would be an excellent addition, especially if he could be had on a shorter deal.
On the pitching side, I would not be opposed to bringing in someone like Adam Wainwright. The Cole Hamels addition did not work out in 2020 but that does not mean that the thinking was flawed. The best part of that signing turned out to be that it was for just one year and he isn’t still around taking up payroll.
Like Hamels, Wainwright would be coming in with a lot of mileage, but would bring experience and the ability to eat some innings. Injuries would be a concern there and it would come down to the asking price, but I would not hate it if it happened.
I read MLB Trade Rumors FA predictions today. They have us keeping Mark Melancon and adding Michael Brantley & Jon Lester. Do you think Lester is a possibility or a good fit? Do you think it’s likely that we re-sign Melancon, or do you think there are better options like Brandon Kintzler maybe? If we signed Brantley, how would he effect the lineup & how would Duvall fit in? Possibly fewer at-bats for Pache against LHP?
I will be surprised if the Braves do not at least check in with Melancon about a reunion. He pitched well while in Atlanta and seemed to fit in well. I think the same may apply to Shane Greene as well or a veteran guy like Brandon Kintzler that you mentioned. There are a number of relief options that are available and should come cheap. The good thing is, Atlanta will only be looking to add some supplemental pieces to the pen. It will not need to be overhauled.
Jon Lester would be another of those veteran starters that fits into the mold of what Atlanta is reportedly looking for. I would have him ranked below Wainwright on my wish list, but the price tag should not be high given his last two seasons.
I talked about Brantley above but I will wrap up that discussion with how I would see him fitting into the outfield picture. Ronald Acuña Jr. plays everyday and I think Cristian Pache does as well provided he is on the roster. Brantley could play left and see some time at DH if it sticks and Marcell Ozuna signs elsewhere. That would push Duvall to the bench and you would want to work him some into the mix against left-handed pitchers. I would look at Duvall as the fourth outfielder, but over a normal-sized season, there would still be plenty of opportunities. You could do so much worse than having Duvall around to fill in if another outfielder gets hurt for a while.
Josh Donaldson had a huge year in Atlanta, signed a big contract, and then underperformed that contract in his first year in Minnesota. Almost everyone wanted him back, but it’s starting to look like passing on his price was the right call. Marcell Ozuna had a huge year in Atlanta, looks likely to sign a big contract, and then could very possibly regress or just become the guy he was in St. Louis (plus, he doesn’t play defense). Again, almost everyone wants him back, but his price is likely to be high. Wouldn’t the Braves be much better served consistently betting on guys with 1 year prove it contracts instead of accepting the larger risk of expecting past performance to continue forward? Sure, they run the risk of the player not actually proving it, but that seems preferable to 3-4 years of committing a significant chunk of payroll to a player who doesn’t live up to a contract.
I think you pretty much summed up the Braves’ free agent strategy under Alex Anthopoulos. The only signing that tests that theory was Will Smith but that deal was not to the magnitude that we are discussing in regards to Josh Donaldson and maybe Marcell Ozuna.
There were plenty of rumors, but as we would find out later, once the bidding got to three, four or five years for Donaldson that Atlanta was never really involved. I imagine that the same would apply to Ozuna this offseason. I think it would make a good discussion if the Braves would be interested in keeping Ozuna if the DH does not return to the National League. With the DH it is a no-brainer that they would be interested. Without? I don’t know.
The counter argument to the one-year thing is of course Cole Hamels. That was money that could have gone somewhere else in 2020 but as I mentioned above, is off the books for 2021.
Anthopoulos’ strategy has always been to utilize the minor league depth that the Braves accumulated during the rebuild and to remain flexible. It does not take but a bad contract or two to really cut into that flexibility for a team like at Atlanta that does not have an unlimited payroll. I have not seen anything that would make me think that the Braves or Anthopoulos will be altering their strategy anytime soon.
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