Why The 2018 Draft Is More Important Than You Realize

When looking at some of the most recent drafts the 2018 draft is up there with the 2016 draft in terms of talent. But that’s not why we are here today. Nay, instead, we’ll look at why this draft will be important for another reason. A reason that should be apparent and likely is for some. Of course I’m talking about keeping the minor leagues stocked with viable players.

There’s a huge amount of turnover that happens to a system year to year. Teams use the draft and IFA to keep the system stocked and hopefully flush with talent to keep things moving forward. The Braves find themselves unfortunately in a precipitous position due to Coppy-gate.

International Free Agency (IFA):

The Braves have only signed 10 teenagers so far this year, which isn’t a lot. On top of that, they’ve already begun trading several pool slots away. Taking a quick look at the players signed last year and it doesn’t look too good, less than a handful look like they could make the jump from the DSL to the GCL. Asmin Bautista, the big signing from 2017, hit .165 with a .562 OPS. Meanwhile, Christian Zamora, the 6’4” 17 year old kid from Cuba, hit .139 with a .466 OPS and a strikeout rate close to 40% in the GCL. Zamora might be the most intriguing from the 2017 signings, but his first year left a lot to be desired.

One of the interesting things is that out of all the International Free Agents that were placed in Free Agency, one actually re-signed with the Braves - Antonio Sucre, who ultimately didn’t play this season. The 18 year old will have a lot of pressure on him in 2019 to make his mark as a prospect.

In 2019, the Braves have $0 in pool money to spend. 2020, the Braves can spend again without restrictions, but their bonus pool will be cut in half. It remains to be seen if the Braves can trade for bonus pool money. As we’ve seen from recent years, trading bonus pool money doesn’t cost much in player/prospect capital.

This is a big hit for the Braves now and the lack of IFA talent moving upward will continue to be a sore spot for seasons to come.

MLB Draft:

This brings us to the MLB Draft and the importance of drafting not only for talent but for system depth. It’s a fine balance that a GM must uphold, much less one for Alex Anthopoulos (AA) in his first year as a new GM. Let’s take a look at some recent drafts that will ultimately get compared to the 2018 draft. There are a number of things to note. Each season from 2014-2017 is broken up into a double pie chart. On the left is when the original draft took place - who signed and didn’t sign. The second pie chart breaks down those that signed and where things currently stand. Most players just get released, but you’ll see other reasons why a player doesn’t stick around. It only takes a couple of years for a team’s draft to look quite different.

2014 Draft:

There are only 5 players left from this draft (27 original signees), and likely only 2 will amount to anything – Chad Sobotka and Jacob Webb. Both are relievers, which is far from ideal in any draft. Caleb Dirks is kinda intriguing since the Braves traded him and traded back for him. He’s listed on the team, but didn’t pitch this season, so not sure as to his future. Braxton Davidson is coming off a season in which he struck out 213 times while repeating High-A for a 3^rd time, but managed to hit 20 home runs. He’ll be playing in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) in what could be his last shot to stick with the Braves.

2015 Draft:

The first draft by the GM Who Must Not Be Named, John Copollela (oops, I named him), still has 12 players remaining in the system out of the original 32 signees. The Braves even have a 25^th rounder in Jonathan Morales still active. When looking at the first 5 picks in the draft, 3 of them have made it to the Bigs, 1 is close in Austin Riley, and the last is looking more and more like the wrong pick at the time in Lucas Herbert. Sometimes drafting a player based on a teammate (Kolby Allard) isn’t the smart choice. So while I wasn’t a fan of the pick at the time and still not a fan, Herbert’s defensive skills should keep him in the system for awhile.

Then you have Patrick Weigel, who should earn his way to the majors even if it’s not with the Braves. Josh Graham has control issue, but still has a quality stuff to get guys out. Then you have talented guys like Chase Johnson-Mullins and Matt Withrow that have issues staying healthy. Regardless of whether these players make it to the majors, they should at least stick in the system.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kurt Hoekstra and Sean McLaughlin get released at some point since both have shown very little since being drafted.

2016 Draft:

This class boasted the biggest number of signings due to all the extra picks, 34 players in total signed out of 42. 2 years later there are 17 players still on the team. The good news is that there’s potential for 7 players to make it to the major leagues in some capacity. There’s even potential for another since Matt Rowland is just making his way back from TJS.

The bad news is that although there are 50% of the signed players still remaining in the system, I could easily see up to 6 players getting released. However, that may be a bit premature due to the lack of players that will be coming in to the system over the next few years, so we’ll see if some stick around solely based on the lack of fresh faces.

2017 Draft:

This class was the direct opposite of 2016 where just 25 players signed. Essentially every pick after the 24^th round didn’t sign. It’s important to remember that any player signed from round 11-40 don’t count toward the bonus pool cap if signed for $125K or less. That’s 16 rounds the Braves punted on; many of the prospects were HS players that were draft and follow. So the Braves have just 18 players remaining in the system from a draft only a year old.

After the first 4 rounds, there isn’t much to be excited about, but there are still some standouts like Riley Delgado, Drew Lugbauer and Cutter Dyals.

2018 Draft:

With the IFA restrictions, past draft classes dwindling, and players graduating in addition to a new GM, talk about pressure. It was crucial for AA to make the most with his first Braves draft. Then, wouldn’t you know it, the Braves signed a whopping 85% of this year’s draft class. They didn’t sign their 1^st round pick, and 34th rounder Zach Hess was always going to be a long shot. Had the Braves signed Stewart, they’d have likely had enough pool money to land Hess. Sadly, things didn’t work out perfectly, but even without those 2, it was still a fantastic group of signings.

However, AA wasn’t done yet. After the 2018 draft was over, the Braves went on to sign 2 undrafted players: Matt Hartman and Mason McReaken. Both are pitchers, but while Hartman didn’t do much, the Braves may have found something with McReaken who struck out 15 batters in 12 innings while putting up a 1.08 WHIP.

It remains to be seen how many of these players ultimately stick around, but early returns show this could be a special class. A class of quality and tremendous depth. A class that just added 35 new players into the system.

It gets even more interesting as AA has been pushing top pitching prospects through the system quite quickly, which could potentially leave big voids at the lower levels. This should give guys like Tristan Beck, Trey Riley, Noland Kingham (hope he can get his velocity back), Victor Vodnik and maybe even guys like Mitch Stallings and Gabe Rodriguez all plenty of chances to start. It will also give the Braves a longer look at fringe prospects like Alan Rangel, Odalvi Javier, and others.

The 2019 draft will be valuable too, but the importance of the 2018 draft and how AA struck a perfect balance of talent and depth should not be understated.

Let me know your thoughts on this year’s draft. Do you think 2018 was a pretty crucial draft or not?