Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Braves walked a ton of opposing batters last night. 14. Fourteen. Ugh. Now, remember that Sean Newcomb is the Braves’ listed pitcher to get the start in the series finale. How are you feeling? Expecting another walkfest? Is the bile in your stomach making its way up your esophageal canal?
Well... I can’t say I blame you. But, there’s one bit of pertinent information you should remember. In Newcomb’s last start, he walked zero. None, nada, zip, zilch. It was only the second time all season he had done so, and since he didn’t manage it even once last year, only the second time in his career. Newcomb was very good in that outing against the Giants, scattering only one run on three hits while striking out eight, and if he can give the Braves and their fans a reprieve from viewing free pass after free pass, and stave off the bullpen (who will likely do it even if he doesn’t), all the better.
It’s hard to say that Newcomb’s season has been a step forward, but it hasn’t been a step back, either. On a value basis, he’s that same 2.5ish fWAR/200 IP starter that he was in half a season last year; on a peripherals basis, his FIP- has barely budged (99 to 101) and his xFIP- not at all (105 both years). Both the walk rate and strikeout rate have dipped by near-identical amounts, and even his grounder rate is essentially unchanged. There’s still room for improvement, certainly, and the start against the Giants was certainly a positive development, but it looks like big strides forward will have to wait until next year.
That is definitely not the story for Tanner Roark, who will likely be hoping both for overall improvement next year, and some very rapidly-infused improvement before this afternoon’s game. After two seasons of above-average run prevention (92, 95 FIP-) and a decent xFIP- (101, 96), Roark has backslid to below-average marks (103 FIP-, 108 xFIP-). His season has been very inconsistent, as he suffered through a very rough patch in June and early July, and then came out of the All-Star Break dominating opposing lineups for a month, before stumbling once again. He’s allowed 15 runs over his last three starts, including five homers. Weirdly enough, though, his struggles have not been related to control or walks, as he’s now gone five consecutive starts without a free pass, and has only issued a walk in two of his last nine outings.
This will be Roark’s third start (and fourth appearance) against the Braves this year. He dominated them in his first outing of the season, allowing one run in seven innings, as the Nationals cruised to a big win. In his second start, he actually faced Newcomb, and the Braves got the best of him: Newcomb allowed two runs in seven, but Roark allowed four and that’s how the game ended. Roark then suffered an ignominious end in that series, as he came on in relief for the bottom of the ninth (the Washington starter was knocked out with injury after facing two batters, hence the depleted bullpen) and allowed a walkoff homer to Charlie Culberson to end the game.
This will be Newcomb’s fourth start against the Nationals of 2018. He’s had a mixed bag of results against them, for certain. His first outing, in his first start of the year, was forgettable: a six-run shellacking where he issued four walks and didn’t get out of the fifth. But, he’s bounced back since: there was the seven-inning, two-run game already mentioned, and he followed that up with six innings of one-run ball in early August. Those last two starts only featured two walks apiece, and if Newcomb can continue to limit the BBs, everyone will be all the gladder for it.
The Braves have already won the season series against the Nationals, so all Washington can do is bring the final tally to 10-9 in Atlanta’s favor. But, hopefully it doesn’t come to that, as despite the Braves sitting pretty with a 6.5-game lead in the NL East, they do need additional wins to firmly ensconce the division crown on their heads. Let’s hope they get another today.
Game Info
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Sunday, September 16, 2025
1:35 pm EDT
SunTrust Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Fox Sports South, MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM, WYAY 106.7, Braves Radio Network, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
XM Radio: XM 186 (Streaming 841)
Loading comments...