Braves place four prospects in Fangraphs’ KATOH Top 100

In case you haven’t heard, the Braves have a good farm system.

A really good one.

With most of the top 100 prospects lists out now (with the notable exception of Eric Longenhagen from Fangraphs which should be out by the start of the season), the Braves are the runaway winners of the prospect list derby this offseason. They have either had the most or tied for the most top 100 prospects on each list that has come out so far and if Longenhagen’s chats are any indication, that is unlikely to change.

However, Fangraph’s Chris Mitchell has put out a different kind of top 100 list that is interesting on a number of levels. Using the KATOH projection system, Mitchell produced his own version of a top 100 list which basically uses a prospect’s KATOH projection and combines it with the rankings from traditional prospect rankings. It is worth noting that hitters outnumber pitchers almost 3-to-1 in this ranking because of some problems the projection system has with accounting for pitching projectability and the inherent risks associated with pitching prospects. Chris explains it better here.

There are only 4 Braves on this top 100 list with Dansby Swanson (3), Ozzie Albies (8), Mike Soroka (54), and Kolby Allard (60). Chris does a better job of highlighting what this means and doesn’t mean, but one short explanation is that the system doesn’t necessarily account for pitchers’ “stuff” and velocity well (see: a large portion of the Braves farm system with is loaded with pitchers especially in the low minors) as well as small sample sizes (see: Kevin Maitan, Ronald Acuna, etc). That said, the projection system seems to love Vlad Guerrero Jr. who hasn’t played above rookie ball (although he is really really good), so there is that.

The system basically does its best to account for past production in combination with existing prospect rankings to come up with useful WAR projections and rankings. However, with the current system pitchers do seem to be operating with a handicap, although with the amount of risk associated with pitchers that may not be necessarily incorrect.

What say you? Do you find these sorts of projections and rankings helpful? Are their other projection systems of prospects that you find to be better/more accurate? Let us know in the comments what you think.