Today Baseball America released their first mock draft for the 2017 MLB Draft season. It's a first run at it and with the draft nearly three months away yet, there is plenty of time for things to change as players move both up and down draft boards.
This mock draft only covered the Top 10 picks in the draft as it's not an easy thing to project beyond that accurately right now considering how early it is, particularly on the high school side of things. Obviously that covers the Braves top pick in the draft, the fifth overall selection- a name that may surprise some of you.
Things start out as expected with the Twins taking California prep prospect Hunter Greene #1, the consensus top prospect in the draft.
A slight surprise at #2 with the Reds taking Brendan McKay, the Louisville two way star drafted as a pitcher.
San Diego follows at #3 with the top prep bat in the draft, California SS/OF Royce Lewis.
At #4 the Rays take North Carolina right hander JB Bukauskas, a guy with his share of fans here who has only boosted his stock with a very strong opening to his junior year.
With Greene, McKay, Lewis, and Bukauskas off the board the Braves would normally be expected to draft a pitcher based off the current track record and recent comments by the front office. However that's not what happened.
BA gave the Braves North Carolina high school outfielder Austin Beck of North Davidson HS in Lexington and had this to say about the pick:
“It’s a banner year in North Carolina with lefty McKenzie Gore and Bukauskas drawing in cross checkers and scouting directors by the dozen, but they’ve been wowed by Beck, who has returned from a torn ACL to show premium tools, with potential 70 power, speed and defense with a plus arm. Beck has had a couple of “Roy Hobbs” performances where he’s made the game look ridiculously easy, and the Rays are in heavy at No. 4 as well. Beck is the draft’s fastest riser but also could slide back down the draft as teams fret about his lack of wood-bat track record, after missing last summer and fall with his knee injury. That casts some doubts on his true hitting grade.”
The rest of the Top 10 had some of the familiar names with Vanderbilt OF Jeren Kendall at #6, Florida’s Alex Faedo at #7, the dropping Vanderbilt RHP Kyle Wright at #8, and Georgia prep LHP DL Hall #9. The final pick in the 10 pick mock draft was a new name here in UC Irvine bat Keston Hiura, a talented bat with some very real injury concerns.
Thoughts
This was certainly an interesting mock draft and one that the Braves front office could be thrilled to watch unfold in front of them with picks 1-4, leaving them arms like Faedo, Wright, Hall and bats like Beck and Kendall among the players to pick from.
The pick of Beck was one that surprised me because everything points to the Braves being focused on adding another arm, and on top of that heading into the spring Beck wasn't in the mix to be drafted in the Top 10 picks because of his injury and missed time on the showcase circuit.
My own opinion of Beck is that he's clearly got the loud tools to be worth of a high pick, but I'm not ready to buy in completely yet until I'm able to get more data and tape on him from his senior season to see the progress for myself. It's definitely an aggressive pick to see him that high, and it's too soon to say if that's a good or bad decision considering how early into the high school season we are.
Of the guys taken after the Braves pick the one who I think would make sense for the Braves most right now is Alex Faedo, who was dinged for his velocity drop this year despite the impressive results. I've talked about Faedo before the year and once last week and didn't think the velocity drop was worth mentioning considering how early into the year we are and the fact that coming off minor dual knee surgery in the fall he wasn't starting the season at 100%. Faedo still has plenty of time to get back to full strength and regain his normal velocity.
BA also notes how both of the Vanderbilt stars have fallen. Each was in the mix for the #2 overall pick heading into the year(assuming Hunter Greene had locked up #1), but the swing and miss in Kendall’s game and the inconsistent command of Wright.
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