The past few weeks have seen a flurry of projections, forecasts, and other estimates try to peg the 2017 Atlanta Braves season. Through these, we’ve seen:
- Atlantis Casino: 71.5 wins
- USA Today: 70 wins
- PECOTA: 76 wins
- Current Fangraphs BaseRuns projections: 74 wins
- ZiPS zWAR total-based projection (with me adding one win for the bench): 76 wins
That’s an average of about 73 or 74 wins, and the overall spread above isn’t particularly rangy.
But, as commentariat member leedawg pointed out last week, the projections, and discussions about their estimations of a team’s future record, are only part of the story. Another part, and perhaps the more interesting part, is your expectations for the Braves, and what you would consider a disappointing, or perennially exciting, performance, record-wise, for the 2017 season.
The Braves are entering their third year of the rebuild. They won 67 games in 2015, and followed that with a one-game improvement to 68 wins last season. The various prognostications see them making another jump, but not a particularly big one. [By my own estimation, I think even the more optimistic projections are assigning roughly a one-sixth chance of the Braves hitting .500 in 2017, and that proportion falls for the less-optimistic ones.]
So, I pose these questions to you:
- Where do you expect the Braves to end up, record-wise, in 2017?
- What win total would represent a disappointment to you?
- What win total would greatly please you, in the vein of the Braves exceeding your expectations?
For my money, my answers are:
- I expect the Braves to end up with between 71 and 77 wins, as currently constructed. If I had to get more specific, I’d pick to 72 to 74 win range.
- Personally, I’m not particularly sure I’d be disappointed with any record at this point, except in the broad scheme that any non-competitive season is a disappointing one. But, I would be very (negatively) surprised if the Braves ended up with 67 or fewer wins this season.
- The 2017 Braves would exceed my expectations if they hit .500 or finished above it.
What about you?