In a small but dark corner of the Braves fanbase, a debate has been posed as to the future at second base in Atlanta between the long time heir apparent Ozzie Albies and the relatively newly acquired Travis Demeritte. Fueled by the lust for power prospects, a strong case of prospect fatigue, and a tweet from former scout Bernie Pleskoff there have been some even calling for a trade of Albies to make way for Demeritte and capitalize on Albies high prospect value.
As a quick starting point, the trade-now idea for Albies is fairly ludicrous even if Travis Demeritte were a much more sure thing than he is. The value of a prospect is a bit overrated, but in recent trading it has been fairly obvious that prospects are not seen by very many clubs as pieces of immense value made to be collected and admired. Given the landscape of the game and the asking prices around the league, it is fairly unlikely the Braves would be able to garner any piece of interest that provides any value beyond what Albies himself could. Additionally, Albies is coming off of an, albeit fairly minor, injury that further depreciates him. In the current market with the current situation surrounding Albies it would be pretty foolish to throw away a potential star for the hopes that Travis Demeritte doesn’t continue to strike out 30% of the time.
This boils down to one simple thing, the phenomenon known as prospect fatigue. I mean this Ozzie Albies kid, we’ve been hearing about him for 3 years now, he’s been 1 or 2 in Talking Chop’s last 5 top prospect iterations, and is likely soon to be (spoiler alert) a unanimous #1 prospect selection for next season by the staff. We hear about his bat and his glove and it gets boring sometimes. With all of the names in the system it’s easy to just pass off on Albies and focus on the new gems-the Acunas and Maitans and Andersons that we have so much left to learn about. Eventually we go into each and every facet of his game, and there’s nothing left to do so we nit pick, and we ignore, and we become disappointed by anything less than spectacular. Now, in strolls this behemoth of a batter in Travis Demeritte, who is clubbing extra base hits left and right and represents a direct threat to the hole in the system that kept many evaluators from deeming the Braves an elite system. Demeritte comes in, hits reasonably well, and then when Albies goes down with an injury all eyes fixate on the new kid as he makes his way to the Arizona Fall League.
Credit where credit is due, Demeritte made an argument by being one of the top performers in the league including cutting his strikeout rate while maintaining a high power output. The fresh, cute new toy has all the attention and it was easy to get swept away in the commotion and bandwagon away from the tried and true. This is prospect fatigue, plain and simple, and it happens to us all and it causes at times some silly debates. So, drink your prospect coffee, wake up those scouting minds, and let’s entertain this “Demeritte vs Albies” idea for a minute and take a look at what each player provides right now.
Ozzie Albies is currently a top prospect in all of baseball by any reputable source, while Demeritte doesn’t even manage to crack Top 100 lists. While most of these lists are just a rehashing of each other, with nothing more than minor switches and popular opinions driving them, they are created by some of the more respectable bunches of people and there is good reason to account for such a significant difference in status. This is a difficult comparison to even make as these are polar opposite figures from an offensive standpoint, so let’s start on the defensive end. Demeritte has gained high marks, graded as highly as plus on the defensive end, and would be a more than suitable second baseman for the coming future. Still, the pure instincts and range Ozzie possesses up the middle is matched by few in baseball, and gives him the edge here despite Demeritte’s abilities. That said, the difference over a 162 game season is probably not going to significant enough to make up for any sort of major difference in offensive ability.
It would be easy to say Travis Demeritte has the higher offensive ceiling. He can hit the ball to Jupiter, and with plate discipline to boot that will help his OBP numbers even if the strikeouts continue. Again though, Ozzie Albies is just a special baseball player. Very few players can lay claim to a double plus hit tool, but Albies is as close as you are gonna find from a prospect. Better yet, Albies has succeeded at a higher level and is more than 2 years younger than Demeritte. Ozzie is never going to pop 20 home runs (well...maybe over the course of 3-4 years) but his gap power makes up the gap more than you would expect and when the parks are normalize (Demeritte played in the very hitter-friendly Cal League, Albies in Trustmark Park, one of the toughest hitter’s parks in the minors), it becomes significant but still not as significant as the gap in hit tool and major league readiness. Add in Albies plus to double plus speed, and I think you get the picture that not only does Ozzie project out better over the course of his career-it’s not particularly close.
There is no argument beyond “5’7” that could legitimately place Demeritte in higher status at this point in their respective careers. This is not to say that I don’t think highly of Travis Demeritte, rather I must say I love Demeritte. A player with power, some speed, and plus defense up the middle is a rare combination that any team should be lucky to have. Demeritte just comes with his major caveats. This is a player that has already been busted and suspended for PEDs, barely played at his appropriate level in A+ at 21, and frankly is a flawed baseball player. Demeritte has spent 3 seasons in A ball and has a .240 average with a 34.8% strikeout rate. He can be and has been consistently exposed at every level he has played at and is such a risky player that even with his ceiling can’t be considered a top level prospect. Ozzie Albies simply has fewer holes in his game with the added benefit of being able to help a major league club now, a position Demeritte its at least 3 years away from.
The most simple point that makes all of this indisputable is Ozzie Albies. This is a star level talent that is difficult for any other team to match, much less for a team to do so within their own ranks. Could Demeritte be nipping at the heels of the Great Dane, waiting to take his place were he to stumble? Absolutely. If Travis Demeritte is the backup plan at second base you can’t help but feel good about your organization. There’s somehow still this overwhelming feeling that Albies can’t fail. I mean that’s stupid of course, because anything could go wrong, but Ozzie is one of those players that is so gifted he could come up well short of his potential and still be one of the better second basemen in baseball. In that department, Travis Demeritte just can’t compete. I’m sorry Travis, it’s not that you aren’t good, it’s just that Albies is somehow so much better. My, how fun it will be to watch the infield race unfold for the Braves.
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