Here’s betting there won’t be campfire ghost stories, creating crafts to take home to their families or a showdown with the obnoxious bullies from the rival camp across the lake. Summer Camp, the official moniker MLB has slapped on this fire drill of a second spring training will be unlike anything we’ve ever experienced, leading to a season that will be unlike anything we’ve ever experienced.
Baseball has turned into, for a season, an NFL/college football-type sprint, but while the games change from 162 to 60, the questions and storylines remain largely the same as the Starting Nine takes a trip around the diamond with the Braves before they take to Truist Park for Friday’s first day of camp.
1. Pitcher: Braves’ army of arms in better place with layoff
Alex Anthopoulos said the Braves were throwing around the idea of piggybacking starters, but the makeup of the 60-player pool makes it appear it’s going to happen, at least in the beginning of the season. It’s a litany of starting options with Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Felix Hernandez, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson and a group of top-30 prospects, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, Huascar Ynoa, and Jasseel De La Cruz and newly drafted Jared Shuster among them. The cancellation of the minor league season means having to carry Shuster and those top prospects to continue their development, but over those first four weeks of the season (before rosters are cut down from 30 to 26) figures to be key for those outside the believed five or six-man rotation. It’s a situation that would also seem to have its veterans among those seeing the biggest benefit. With the added time for Hamels to recover from a shoulder ailment that was expected to keep him out until late May, he’s expected to be full-go by Opening Day and Hernandez, whose very place in the rotation was aided by Hamels being out, will now get more looks and have a role over those opening weeks with expanded rosters and an onus on shielding starters from throwing too many innings early on. No one is making out from the coronavirus or the pandemic, but it’s undeniable that the Braves army of arms is in a better place because of the layoff.
2. Catcher: A schedule that will feel like home for d’Arnaud
During a recent conference call, catcher Tyler Flowers let it be known that they’ll be leaning on new acquisition Travis d’Arnaud when it comes to facing American League East pitchers and how the Braves’ arms can attack the division’s hitters. D’Arnaud, after all, found his power stroke after joining the Rays on May 11, hitting eight home runs in 33 games against AL East opponents. Flowers noted that it’s a different scenario for a backstop, as opposed to expecting a player at another position to be a scouting resource. “Guys who have been in the unique position of squatting behind someone trying to hit, or throwing pitching toward someone trying to hit them, I think they have a different understanding and a different idea of strengths or weaknesses of the opponent,” Flowers said. “I think it’ll definitely be beneficial. I assure you we’ll be leaning on him a fair bit in those situations to get his opinion and what he’s experienced against a lot of these guys.” While d’Arnaud had success with long ball, it wasn’t just that, as he hit 84 percent against the Red Sox, 28 percent over vs. the Blue Jays and had 126 wRC+ against the Yankees. Given his past with six-plus seasons with the Mets, this schedule is going to feel like home for the 31-year-old.
3. First Base: Freeman’s troubles vs. AL East a storyline to watch
As detailed last week in this space, fast-starter Freddie Freeman could be primed for a run at an MVP, but there is an aspect of the schedule worth diving into that isn’t exactly positive for the All-Star first baseman. Since 2012, Freeman hasn’t produced a single season in which he’s had a wRC+ lower than 132 against the NL East and with 40 of the Braves’ 60 games coming against those opponents, that part of the schedule is tailor-made for Freeman to put up a monster year ... but then there’s those other 20 games. In 2012, ‘15 and ‘18, those years when the Braves faced off against the entire AL East, he’s had wRC+s of 53 (2012), 103 (‘15) and 63 (‘18) against that collective, the latter of those years drug down by a 1 against the Rays and minus-26 vs. the Yankees. With it has something to do with those Canadian roots, he’s largely devoured the Blue Jays (career 151 wRC+), while he also had success vs. the Red Sox (149), but oddly hasn’t hit well vs. the lowly Orioles (68 wRC+ in ‘18 and minus-17 in ‘15). But with New York and Tampa Bay eyeing postseason returns, those series and his history against them will make for a storyline to watch.
4. Second Base: Albies fit for a (batting) crown?
No Braves player has won a batting crown since Chipper Jones in 2008, but the Vegas odds are firmly behind Ozzie Albies making a push. Via BetOnline, the second baseman is tied with the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte at +900 for the NL’s third-highest odds, trailing only the Brewers’ Christian Yelich (+800) and Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (+800). Albies — like Ronald Acuña Jr. — makes for an interesting study in this shortened season on what we’re gauging more in past performance. In his first two seasons, Albies has hit under league average in the May and his 53 wRC+ in those months are the 13th lowest of any everyday player. But on the flip side, in the last two months of 2019, only four NL players carried a higher average than his .316 (with a minimum of 220 plate appearances).
5. Third Base: Braves boast most experience in division
There remains a battle for the starting third base job between Johan Camargo and Austin Riley, but here’s a surprising thought: Atlanta is going into the season with an option with more cumulative experience at the position than any other NL East team. With Anthony Rendon leaving D.C. behind him for the Angels, the Nationals will turn to rookie Carter Kieboom, with Asdrúbal Cabrera (165 games in his career at third) second on the depth chart; the Phillies are transitioning to Jean Segura, who has never played the position, at the hot corner; the Mets’ Jeff McNeill has 35 games on his resume at third and the Marlins will turn to Jonathan Villar (54 games in his career). That makes Camargo’s 175 games, including 114 in 2018 when he was nearly a 4.0 fWAR player, as the most in the division, with Austin Riley seeing time in five games in 2019.
6. Shortstop: A telling season lies ahead for Swanson
Dansby Swanson was on an All-Star trajectory last season when he hit 14 percent above league average in April and 131 in June (the 75 wRC+ in May hurting that case) and there’s the belief that this is a big year for the former No. 1 pick (whether you want to put any of that on 2019 first rounder Braden Shewmake making noise is up to you). Injuries have clouded the picture, with Swanson limited to just four games last season with a heel injury, though he was among the few Braves to hit in the NLDS vs. the Cardinals, hitting .389 with a .977 OPS in 18 at-bats. But the reality is we’ve not seen a fully productive or season out of Swanson, who didn’t hit a single homer after July 4 of last season and had a near 30 percent strikeout rate, an uptick of 10 percent from his first half, and he has yet to hit above league average in any of his three full major-league seasons. But maybe this abbreviated campaign is what Swanson — who has started strong with wRC+s of 103 and 114 in the first full month the past two years, and not made it past 136 games played since 2017 — needs to start to shed the bust label that can hang over a No. 1 overall pick as the years on the resume build.
7. Left Field: Debunking (once again) the false Ozuna defensive narrative
There’s a school of thought that with the addition of the designated hitter, the Braves will no longer be resigned to using Marcell Ozuna in left field and can instead utilize the platoon of Nick Markakis or Adam Duvall or give Austin Riley time in the outfield as well. It continues to mystify why (outside of one admittedly hilarious play in particular) what facts the narrative that Ozuna is a poor defensive player are rooted in? He has the best UZR/150 of any qualified left fielder last season at 8.6, was second in defensive runs saved. Ozuna would surely benefit from being in the mix at DH and getting days off from being in the field, but the idea that he’s a liability in the field is a false one.
8. Center Field: Inciarte’s path to a 2020 rebound
Ender Inciarte’s hold on a spot in the Braves outfield will continue to be a storyline as long as he continues to chase the offensive heights of his All-Star, 200-hit season of 2017, and as long as top-ranked prospect Cristian Pache remains on the doorstep (and on the 60-man player pool for this season). He’s still not hit at leave average since donning an Atlanta uniform in 2016, and in the past three seasons, Inciarte’s Offensive Runs Above Average has gone from 0.6, minus-1.5 to 0.6 after a 2.0 in that ‘17 campaign. If there’s hope for a rebound in 2020, beyond the fact that he’s historically been better as the summer wears on, it’s that after his return from a 55-game absence in July, he’d post a staggering 164 wRC+ in 69 plate appearances vs. right-handed pitching (he’s a career league-average hitter against them), while seeing limited time vs. righties (21 PAs). By accepting he’s better in a platoon situation, it allowed Inciarte to thrive before he was shut down in August after tweaking his quad. Small-sample-size me all you want, but everything about 2020 is going to be a small sample size, so success in 25-30 game spurts will be more than welcome in this environment.
9. Right Field: Acuña can’t keep this pace up against the Marlins ... can he?
In just 37 games, Ronald Acuña Jr. has already hit 16 home runs against the Marlins — in tension-building, chest-thumping fashion — nine of which came last season. It’s already tied for the 14th most hit against the franchise since its 1993 debut, tied with Matt Holliday in 71 games and former Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur in 115. With the rate he’s already gone deep against them, every 9.063 at-bats, Acuña getting 20 matchups and roughly 80 ABs vs. the Marlins this season, that could be another nine slow trots in 2020, meaning with less than 60 games, Acuña’s pace vs. Miami would mean 24 HRs. That would be in the top 10 all time vs. the Fish, ahead of Andruw Jones’ 22 in 115 games and behind Jimmy Rollins, who hit 25 in 217 games. Jones, Chipper Jones (26) and Freddie Freeman (30) are the only Braves to hit more homers against the Marlins, but if this pace continues, Freddie may want to look over his shoulder.