Last night’s loss to the Royals was simply inexcusable.
Bad decisions and missed opportunities contributed to the result most of the night. As has been mentioned before, the Braves have a bit of margin for error with their current 5.5 game lead. Inexplicable losses happen multiple times to every team each year. They are expected. The key is correcting any issues that contributed to these types of losses so they do not become trends.
The margin for error that the Braves currently have to work with was due to their impressive offensive production from the middle of May through June. From May 15-June 30, the Braves were fifth in the majors with a 112 wRC+. Since July 1st, the Braves are sixteenth in the majors with a 97 wRC+. The regression of their offense has made it harder for Atlanta to overcome the struggles of their starting staff. As a result, while the Braves were 29-13 from May 15-June 30, they are 10-7 in July. No one is doubting they are still a good team. The Braves simply are not finding as much success overcoming their flaws as they did a month ago.
As a result, last night’s loss probably stings a bit more than most, since it came against one of the weaker teams in the majors during a significant part of the schedule. The Braves have gone 6-5 through this critical 18 game stretch to start the second half of the season, and have only lost a half game of their lead over that time frame. However, with Washington likely to continue surging and Philadelphia righting their ship, the Braves must win the games in which they are clearly favored.
That starts tonight with Julio Teheran (3.61 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 5.21 xFIP) taking the mound against the Royals. Teheran has pitched at a similar level in July as he did during his terrific run in May earlier this year. The Braves have won all three of his starts, and Teheran’s last start was his first one of the season without giving up a walk. Debates on Teheran’s true talent aside, he is consistently doing his main job, which is giving Atlanta the chance to win.
Teheran’s counterpart for Kansas City will be Brad Keller (4.18 ERA. 4.39 FIP, 4.93 xFIP). Keller has regressed a bit from his stellar rookie campaign overall, he has produced some of his best starts recently. The Royals have won all three of Keller’s starts in July, including his second to last start on July 13th, when he went 8 scoreless innings against the Tigers. After last night’s struggles against Danny Duffy, things are unlikely to get any easier for the Braves against Keller.
At the end of the day, the Braves offense is what makes them clearly better than teams such as the Royals. However, the offensive production currently is not living up to its potential consistently like it has in the recent past. Hopefully, that will change tonight, and the Braves can enjoy an off day after a win before they head out on their huge road trip to Philadelphia and Washington.
WPA- Dansby Swanson- He has produced big hits all year, and tonight, the Braves could certainly use a few. If Swanson could contribute to a big first inning, it could go a long way to help Atlanta earn the victory.
GAME INFO
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, July 24, 7:20 PM EST
Location: SunTrust Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: Fox Sports Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Rock 100.5, Braves Radio Network
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