Matthew Boyd is not the only Detroit Tigers pitcher who is enjoying a breakout year. Shane Greene, the Tigers closer, has emerged as one of the best late inning options in the American League. His efforts earned him his first All-Star nod, and now has made him a popular trade target for many contenders in the Majors, including the Atlanta Braves.
Greene has had a pretty interesting career to this point. A well-thought of prospect with the Yankees in the early to mid part of this decade, Greene was traded to Detroit in the deal that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Robbie Ray to Arizona. Greene’s time with the Tigers did not start off in ideal fashion. Struggles with ineffectiveness and injuries impacted him in 2015 and 2016, including a shoulder aneurysm that resulted in blood cots in his fingers.
Fortunately, Greene was able to overcome that scare and produced a stellar 2017 campaign. Greene produced a 2.66 ERA and was worth 2.4 bWAR in a year where he was one of the more valuable setup men in the majors. However, when Greene was promoted to the closer’s role in 2018, his struggles returned. Despite earning 32 saves, Greene produced a 5.12 ERA. Obviously, Greene eventually settled into the role just fine this year.
With the Tigers in the midst of a long rebuilding project, an effective closer is more valuable to them as a trade chip than a reliever. But is Greene enough of a value for the Braves to commit to him as their main weapon during the stretch run and the playoffs?
2019 Stats: 34 G, 34 IP, 20 Saves, 1.06 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 4.04xFIP, 9.26 K/9. 2.65 BB/9, 1.6 WAR
Remaining Team Control: Greene is currently earning $4M in 2019, and has one more year of team control in 2020 before becoming a free agent in 2021.
Why He Will Be Traded: As is the case with several of the other trade candidates that have been highlighted, Greene is simply more valuable to the Tigers for what he can get in a trade than what his individual production can provide. With a year of control left, the Tigers have a bit of leverage to hold on to him. However, with the likelihood that the Tigers will not be ready to compete for a few more years, that extra control means more to a contender than Detroit. While he has been sensational this year, the ability for a team to control him beyond this year is a significant source of his overall value as well.
Why The Braves Need Him: In 2017, Shane Greene was one of 17 relievers who produced at least 2.4 WAR. That was his second season in his setup role. This season, Greene made the All-Star Team as a closer. Yes, Green struggled as a reliever in both 2016 and 2018. However, he has put an effort into consistently improving as a pitcher. And that has allowed his results to significantly improve as became settled in a new role.
A big reason for Greene’s success this year is an improved GB rate based on an increased reliance on his cutter. For any pitcher with more than 30IP in 2019, Greene’s cutter has the fifth highest wCT mark in the majors. While other numbers certainly suggest Greene has been a bit lucky, his consistency cannot be denied.
As mentioned before, Greene also comes with control for 2020. If the Braves were to acquire him, they would have him available for two potential postseason runs. Through his versatility in a setup role or as a closer, Greene has shown the ability to be utilized in multiple ways while remaining highly effective. He also is durable, as he is on pace for a 4th straight season with 50 or more appearances. Greene fits the profile as an arm that can consistently take the ball and get the job done in any situation.
Why the Braves are Not A Good Fit: There is no doubt Greene would be a great fit for the Braves bullpen as it currently stands. He certainly fits in terms of being an upgrade for our relief corps. However, where there may be some doubt is if a bidding war commences for his services. If the Tigers set a high price on him, the Braves need to be cautious of meeting that price. The reason being is that Greene himself simply is not as effective or dominant as other options.
Greene has been a very good reliever this year, but he also has had some good luck. His BABIP against currently stands at .179 compared to .304 for his career. Since becoming a reliever exclusively in 2016, Greene’s xFIPs each year have been 3.95, 4.24, 4.05 and 4.04. He is 62nd in xFIP amongst relievers who have thrown at least 80 innings over the past two years. He is 64th in K/9 in the same group. Greene is a talented reliever, but his profile simply is not as dominant as other relief options. Greene arguably profiles as more of No. 2 option out the bullpen in the postseason than a No. 1.
The fact that Greene’s track record has been less dominant and less consistent than other options on the market should mean his price tag is a bit lower. However, his year of control, very strong surface numbers, and the Tigers desire to get a premium will likely make his price high. It may be smart for the Braves to let someone else pay that high price.
Likely Cost: Similar relievers who have had their breakout year with a year of control left have resulted in good hauls for sellers. Most of that time, that haul is multiple prospects in the 11-15 range of the buyer’s minor league system. For a team that needs as much talent as it can get, the Tigers likely would target both a bat and an arm in return.
While they may focus on a high level arm like Kyle Mueller or Bryse Wilson, it would be hard for the Braves to part with that for 1 extra year of Greene. As a result, a realistic package could be something similar to Kolby Allard or Joey Wentz plus Trey Harris or Travis Demeritte plus a low level lottery ticket. While that may be a fair offer, it likely will take a top ten arm for the Braves to win a likely bidding war. And I mentioned in regards to Felipe Vazquez, the Braves are far more likely to pay that price for a starter than a reliever. As a result, while Shane Greene would be an excellent fit for the Braves roster, his profile and three months of dominance are likely not enough to justify the likely cost the Tigers will demand.