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Examining Atlanta’s playoff odds at (almost) the halfway point of the 2019 season

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MLB: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The halfway point of the 2019 season is nearing, with 79 games in the books for the Atlanta Braves. With that as the backdrop, it is time to check in on how various projection systems view the team and, in short, things are quite a bit rosier than they were during our last installment.

That comes with the territory given the way Brian Snitker’s team has played in recent weeks but, without further ado, here is a glance at Atlanta’s playoff odds as of the morning of June 25.


FiveThirtyEight - 82 percent

FiveThirtyEight isn’t always beloved but the system does track things on a minute-by-minute basis, which can be eternally useful. At present, Nate Silver and company project the Braves to finish with a 91-71 record and give Atlanta a 68 percent chance to win the NL East.

TeamRankings - 80 percent

This is the second straight time that TeamRankings is the lowest on Atlanta and, in part, that is because of its optimism for the rest of the NL East. This projection still pegs the Nationals, Phillies and Mets for 80+ wins each and, if that outcome comes to fruition, it makes sense that Atlanta’s odds would be a little bit lower.

Baseball Prospectus - 85.9 percent

It is on-brand for BP to be in the middle of the five systems and that is the case here. Usually, the middle is a safe place to be and it feels like this might hold true.

NumberFire - 92.8 percent

From a win-loss perspective, NumberFire is in line with the others, projecting the Braves to finish with 91 victories. Still, it sees a shinier outcome in the playoff odds, giving Washington only a 25.5 percent chance and Philadelphia a 22.8 percent chance to reach the postseason. That is music to the ears of Braves Country.

FanGraphs - 90.6 percent

The Braves have come a long way and that is illustrated here. In fact, FanGraphs gives Atlanta a 75.2 percent chance to win the division and, while that may not seem like much with a significant lead in late June, it is something to note.


Though anything can happen in baseball circles (as we’ve seen lately with the Braves), the numbers really like Atlanta right now. That doesn’t ensure anything, but it is easy to take solace in the math and, with 83 games remaining, the squad is in fantastic shape.