The 2019 season is just over a month old and while that is still relatively early, some encouraging trends for the Atlanta Braves have developed. There are still concerns on the pitching side of things and particularly the bullpen, although the relief corps has performed well of late. However, offensively, the team has a lot to be happy about.
While we are still dealing with largely a small sample size, studies have shown that things like exit velocity and barrels and barrel percentage tend too stabilize fairly quickly. From that standpoint, I thought it would be interesting to see where the Braves are at and then follow up at various points throughout the season.
(All stats current as of 5/8 and are courtesy of Baseball Savant)
Ronald Acuña Jr.
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2018 | 313 | 90.8 | 12.9 | 46.6 | 42 | 13.4 |
| May 7 | 92 | 90.7 | 12.1 | 44.6 | 9 | 9.8 |
The Statcast numbers on Ronald Acuña Jr. look pretty similar to the numbers he posted in his rookie season. His average exit velocity is virtually the same even though he is barreling balls at a slightly reduced rate. His hard hit percentage is down slightly but not enough for there to be a concern. His walk rate is up significantly from 9.2 percent to 12.1 percent.
Ozzie Albies
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2017 | 184 | 86.5 | 15.0 | 26.6 | 9 | 4.9 |
| 2018 | 527 | 86.3 | 15.5 | 29.4 | 25 | 4.7 |
| May 7 | 131 | 87.2 | 14.5 | 28.2 | 10 | 7.6 |
The end of the 2018 season for Ozzie Albies raised a number of concerns, but he has quieted them through the early part of the 2019 season. Albies has upped his average exit velocity while pretty much maintaining his hard hit percentage. His launch angle is down slightly but he is barreling pitches a better rate. Perhaps the best news in regards to Albies start is the reduction in his strikeout rate which is down from 17 percent last season to 13.9 percent this season.
Johan Camargo
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
| 2017 | 193 | 87.6 | 9.0 | 35.8 | 9 | 4.7 |
| 2018 | 359 | 88.0 | 12.5 | 33.7 | 18 | 5.0 |
| May 7 | 65 | 87.8 | 17.3 | 32.3 | 1 | 1.5 |
The addition of Josh Donaldson has thrust Johan Camargo into a new role as a super utility player. Camargo really hasn’t gotten going at the plate and although his average exit velocity and hard hit percentage are close to last year’s totals, his xwOBA has dropped from .310 last season to .251 this season which ranks in the bottom five percent of the league. He got off to a bit of a slow start last season but really got going after taking over the third base job on a full time basis. Regular playing time may not come his way this time around but the Braves need him to figure things out at the plate.
Charlie Culberson
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2016 | 54 | 85.2 | 8.0 | 31.5 | 1 | 1.9 |
| 2017 | 9 | 88.0 | 6.1 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 212 | 84.1 | 7.3 | 30.7 | 11 | 5.2 |
| May 7 | 17 | 90.4 | 14.1 | 41.2 | 3 | 17.6 |
Like Camargo, the addition of Donaldson has dropped Charlie Culberson down a peg and he has seen a reduction in playing time early. Unlike Camargo though however, he has been making a lot of quality contact in limited opportunities so far this season. Culberson’s average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel percentage are all up considerably. A .103 difference between his wOBA (.420) and his xwOBA (.317) suggests that regression is coming but remember he was able to outperform his xwOBA percentage last season by a considerable amount.
Josh Donaldson
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2015 | 499 | 92.1 | 10.0 | 46.3 | 61 | 12.2 |
| 2016 | 463 | 92.0 | 14.7 | 49.2 | 58 | 12.5 |
| 2017 | 306 | 90.6 | 13.5 | 43.8 | 43 | 14.1 |
| 2018 | 134 | 90.2 | 11.8 | 41.4 | 14 | 10.4 |
| May 7 | 76 | 92.9 | 11.4 | 48.7 | 12 | 15.8 |
The Braves have to be pleased with what they have seen from Josh Donaldson. While the numbers may not stand out, he has lit up Statcast with a lot of hard contact. His average exit velocity, launch, angle, hard hit percentage and barrel percentage are all on par with his MVP season of 2015. Atlanta will have to take measures to give him rest in an effort to keep him healthy but so far he has answered all of the questions about what he had left in the tank.
Tyler Flowers
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity (MPH) | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity (MPH) | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2015 | 230 | 90.0 | 11.0 | 40.4 | 13 | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 193 | 93.2 | 12.9 | 48.5 | 23 | 11.9 |
| 2017 | 237 | 89.3 | 10.9 | 39.2 | 15 | 6.3 |
| 2018 | 176 | 90.0 | 12.9 | 44.6 | 12 | 6.8 |
| May 7 | 41 | 91.2 | 16.8 | 43.1 | 5 | 12.2 |
The performance of the Braves catching tandem of Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann might be the biggest surprise so far this season, although we should probably be used to it by now. Not only is Flowers one of the best pitch framers in the league, he has gotten himself off to a great start at the plate as well. His average exit velocity is up slightly and he is barreling pitches at a higher clip than last season. Flowers currently owns a .421 BABIP which isn’t sustainable but the Braves still have to be really happy with what they have received from the catcher position.
Freddie Freeman
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
| 2015 | 320 | 90.7 | 14.4 | 45.3 | 36 | 11.3 |
| 2016 | 423 | 91.3 | 17.3 | 45.6 | 58 | 13.7 |
| 2017 | 347 | 89.6 | 15.8 | 41.8 | 46 | 13.3 |
| 2018 | 492 | 89.1 | 14.5 | 39.8 | 46 | 9.3 |
| May 7 | 111 | 91.5 | 13.8 | 46.8 | 19 | 17.1 |
Freddie Freeman is still the guy on this team that you just pencil in for great numbers year in and year out. This season is no different as his average exit velocity is up along with his hard hit percentage and barrel percentage. Even better, Freeman is also sporting a .388 wOBA versus an xwOBA of .425 which means that his future results might be even better than what he’s gotten so far. That .425 number is in the top four percent of the league.
Ender Inciarte
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrel % |
| 2015 | 473 | 84 | 5.3 | 19.5 | 5 | 1.1 |
| 2016 | 461 | 84.5 | 7.1 | 15 | 3 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 575 | 81.2 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | 519 | 83.6 | 10.0 | 18.9 | 8 | 1.5 |
| May 7 | 87 | 78.9 | 4.7 | 17.2 | 2 | 2.3 |
Ender Inciarte has never been a Statcast darling offensively and this year is no different. He is off to a slow start at the plate where his Statcast numbers are trending downward again. An average exit velocity of 78.9 mph looks like a misprint while his hard hit percentage and launch angle have all regressed. Inciarte’s value has always been on the defensive side but he is going to have to turn things around significantly to justify his status as an everyday player.
Matt Joyce
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2015 | 183 | 85.6 | 15.7 | 27.9 | 7 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | 164 | 88.8 | 13.0 | 39.0 | 16 | 9.8 |
| 2017 | 363 | 88.1 | 15.2 | 34.4 | 32 | 8.8 |
| 2018 | 157 | 87.1 | 14.4 | 31.8 | 11 | 7.0 |
| May 7 | 26 | 89.1 | 21.5 | 33.5 | 4 | 15.4 |
The Braves picked up Matt Joyce at the end of spring training as a fourth outfielder and he has performed well in that role so far this season. He has produced quite a bit hard contact totaling four barrels in just 26 batted ball events. For some context he had just 11 barrels in 157 batted balls last season. It is still a pretty small sample for Joyce but Atlanta has to be pleased with what he has given them off the bench so far.
Nick Markakis
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2015 | 530 | 88.3 | 6.9 | 33.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| 2016 | 508 | 90.6 | 10.8 | 42.9 | 25 | 4.9 |
| 2017 | 486 | 88.3 | 8.6 | 34.2 | 16 | 3.3 |
| 2018 | 552 | 90.6 | 10.1 | 41.5 | 17 | 3.1 |
| May 7 | 110 | 91.9 | 7.2 | 46.4 | 4 | 3.6 |
The Braves’ plan for Nick Markakis this season was to sprinkle in a few more off days in an effort to keep him fresh and avoid him running out of gas at the end of the season. So far so good as he is once again producing at a career-best rate. His average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel percentage are all up over last year. He is outperforming his xwOBA slightly but Atlanta will gladly take this version of Markakis if he can sustain it over a full season.
Brian McCann
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2015 | 375 | 89.0 | 17.1 | 36.0 | 21 | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 332 | 88.7 | 19.2 | 36.1 | 20 | 6.0 |
| 2017 | 296 | 87.4 | 14.1 | 33.4 | 17 | 5.7 |
| 2018 | 151 | 86.0 | 23.1 | 25.8 | 5 | 3.3 |
| May 7 | 47 | 87.0 | 6.1 | 31.9 | 4 | 8.5 |
Brian McCann suffered through an injury plagued 2018 season but it has been a good homecoming for he and the Braves so far this season. His hard hit percentage is up as is his barrel percentage. His launch angle is down considerably but it is still relatively a small sample.
Dansby Swanson
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBE | Avg Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | Hard Hit Percentage | Barrels | Barrels % |
| 2016 | 98 | 88.2 | 9.5 | 34.7 | 7 | 7.1 |
| 2017 | 372 | 86.8 | 8.4 | 31.7 | 11 | 3.0 |
| 2018 | 365 | 86.8 | 12.9 | 34.0 | 15 | 4.1 |
| May 7 | 96 | 91.8 | 12.2 | 49.0 | 14 | 14.6 |
Dansby Swanson’s resurgence at the plate has been one of the biggest storylines for the Braves over the first month of the season. The Statcast numbers illustrate it well. His average exit velocity of 91.8 mph trails only Donaldson and Markakis. His hard hit rate has swelled to an unsustainable 49 percent but further illustrates how he has hit the ball with authority. Perhaps the most telling stat is that he has already accumulated 14 barrels on just 96 batted balls. For context, he recorded 15 barrels in 2018 but it took him 365 batted balls to do so. He’s walked more and struck out less while hitting the ball with more authority. If he can remain healthy, then we may finally see that breakout season at the plate for Swanson.
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