More than one-third of the 2019 MLB season is in the books and, for the Atlanta Braves, the early returns are relatively strong. Brian Snitker’s team sits with a 30-25 record as June nears and, with Memorial Day in the rear view mirror, the Braves are in solid position through the lens of the National League playoff race.
With that in mind, it’s time to examine what five major statistical projection systems have to say about the Braves and how they forecast Atlanta in terms of the team’s chances to make the playoffs.
Even with a loss on Tuesday, the Braves are 12-5 in their last 17 games and that allows Atlanta to vault into “likely playoff team” status according to every metric. FiveThirtyEight paints that picture and, if you’re looking for a dynamic system that changes in real time (rather than waiting until the next morning), this is the one for you.
Part of Atlanta’s lower projection here is that TeamRankings sees the Mets and Nationals as more likely to awaken than some of the other systems. It’s a long season but, well, that’s the explanation for what is the least favorable outlook for Atlanta.
Baseball Prospectus - 57.9 percent
If nothing else, BP gives Atlanta the best chance to win the World Series at 5.2 percent. That gives them some wiggle room.
Say hello to the most optimistic projection! The good folks at NumberFire still project the Braves in a dead heat with the Phillies at 88-74 but, in short, this is the forecasting system that fans will enjoy the most.
Finally, the most heavily cited projection arrives and FanGraphs likes what the Braves have been up to in recent days. When Atlanta was 18-20, FanGraphs only saw a 31.8 percent chanced to make the postseason. A lot can change in a short period of time.
With more than 100 games remaining, a lot can (and will) change in the National League pecking order and there are always unknown factors. Still, the Braves are seen in a rosier light after this uptick and that provides optimism as the season progresses.