2019 MLB Draft: JUCO Players - Hitters

We have finally arrived at the JUCO hitters. I’m keeping this to a single article as there isn’t the level of talent that’s on the pitching side, albiet it’s mainly high risk arms. I’ll also include their Baseball America (BA) ranks as well. It’s difficult to say how many will likely get drafted, but if they don’t many are set to transfer to D1 schools.

As you will see below, hitting 30 home runs or winning the Triple Crown doesn’t equate to success at the next level. JUCO stats are inflated. So what can you look for without access to advanced metrics? In addition to on base percentage, the best thing I like to focus on is the BB:K rates. While that still doesn’t guarantee success, it offers better insight than if a player hit .440, because there’ll be more hitters that do that than have a positive walk to strikeout ratio. It’s also an indicator that the batter has a good sense of the strikezone and that he’s not just up there hacking. Because let’s be honest, most of the pitchers in the JUCO ranks are there because of lackluster control so you don’t want a hitter that’s a completely off the rails free swinger.

For the previous articles on JUCO pitchers as well as draft rules, see part 1 and part 2. Now let’s get to it.

Ivan Johnson, Chipola, 6’0”, SS/2B (J2) - The switch hitting infielder has something in commong with Jackson Rutledge. They were both D1 recruits. Johnson spent one year at Georgia (hitting .239 in limited action) before transferring, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that his talent level places him as the top JUCO hitter. He has a solid arm (throws around 90 mph), but has been error prone this season while playing second base. Johnson has the talent to be above average defensively, but he’ll have to put in the work. He has tremendous bat speed and makes consistent contact, but the power has lagged behind. Coming out of high school (just two years ago), his timed 60 yard put him in the plus-plus territory. However, from all media outlets from Baseball America to MLB Pipeline rate his speed as average to below average. I’m only including it cause I find it interesting because speed shouldn’t be subjective, so to see this wide range for someone’s speed is very strange.

Key stats: .389/.500/.606, 9 HR, 19% BB-rate, 17% K-rate, BA rank #112

Jake Randa, NW Florida State, 6’0”, OF (J2) - Originally a Western Kentucky recruit, Jake Randa decided to go the JUCO route instead. He was named the best high school player in Kansas back in 2017 (Max Preps). He also has bloodlines as his father, Joe Randa, played 12 seasons, mostly with the Royals. His Freshman year he hit .412 with 13 home runs, but his numbers did drop off a bit this season. When he’s at the plate he’s looking to make contact and isn’t a guy that strikes out much (doesn’t walk much either).

Key stats: .368/.438/.547, 5 HR, 12% BB-rate, 9% K-rate, BA rank #179

Burle Dixon, Cosumnes River, 6’5”, OF (J2) - Although he had just average speed coming out of high school, Burie Dixon has shown a propensity to steal bases in his two seasons at Cosumnes River (40 SBs). The lefty hitter has shown he can make solid contact, but while he’s 6’5, he has a slender frame which hasn’t produced much power.

Key stats: .335/.474/.553, 5 HR, 14% BB-rate, 18% K-rate, BA rank #187

Brandon Parker, Gulf Coast (Miss), 6’1”, OF (J2) - Brandon Parker battled injuries all through HS so he wasn’t a big recruit. He was finally healthy last season and hit 24 home runs. Parker was finally getting looks from D1 schools like Ole Miss and Southern Miss. While he only hit 14 home runs this season, it led the team; he also led the team in hits and walks, but was also second in many other categories. Power and bat speed are things that stand out for Parker, and he has a willingness to hit to all fields. He might have some questions about the arm, since one of the injuries he had in high school was a shoulder injury. He should still be able to stick in the OF though.

Key stats: .359/.512/.739, 14 HR, 19% BB-rate, 19% K-rate, BA rank #367

Levi Usher, Kirkwood, 6’1”, OF (J1) - Levi Usher’s main carrying tools are speed, arm and defense. As for speed, he’s plus to double plus. He can throw the ball 95 mph from the outfield. Combined, he has the tools to be very good defensively. The bat presently makes consistent contact. For his first collegiate season, he did well to maintain a K-rate under 20%. And while he has the ability to put on some weight to get stronger, he currently has no game power (18% XBH%).

Key stats: .409/.493/.538, 3 HR, 15% BB-rate, 17% K-rate, 36 SBs, BA rank #457

James Nix, Central Florida, 6’4”, OF (J1) - Nix sat out 2018 and then transferred from UAH (DII) to Central Florida. And what a year he had. His walk to K-rate is one of the best in the JUCO ranks.

Key stats: .462/.593/.739, 9 HR, 25% BB-rate, 7% K-rate

David Mendham, Connors State, 6’2”, 3B/1B (J1) - David Mendham played mostly third base this season, but long term he’s likely to switch to first base as his arm strength isn’t great and he has minimal speed. However, he makes up for it in strength. Mendham hit 14 home runs and finished second in NJCAA DI with 84 RBI. He also had a great BB:K rate too.

Key stats: .421/.529/.701, 14 HR, 21% BB-rate, 9% K-rate

Cody Milligan, Cowley, 5’10”, C (J2) - After only eight at-bats his freshman season at Oklahoma State (OSU also has Jake Taylor whom the Braves drafted back in 2017), Cody Milligan transferred to Cowley. He has some solid pop times at catcher, but that’s about it. He’s allowed an insane 22 passed balls and has a 0.987 FLD%. As for offense, he’s got a solid contact ablility and has a great sense of the strikezone (superb BB:K rate).

Key stats: .448/.565/.675, 5 HR, 23% BB-rate, 8% K-rate, 35% CS-rate

Braydon Webb, Grayson, 6’0”, 2B (J2) - This is actually Brayden Webb’s third season with Grayson after suffering an injury last year. After a sub par freshman year and a season cut short, Webb had a big offensive breakout in 2019 with a whopping 45 extra base hits. His offense is going to have to carry him as he doesn’t have good speed and his defense is also sub par despite improving as the year went along.

Key stats: .450/.535/.842, 14 HR, 16% BB-rate, 14% K-rate

Logan Sartori, Hutchinson CC, 5’11”, 2B/OF (J2) - Logan Saratori has experience playing second base and left field, so there is some positional flexibility there. He has an above average arm and average speed to give him some adequate tools to play solid defense. While he only has average speed, he’s very smart on the basepaths, stealing 28 bases. Saratori is a switch hitter that has a good idea of the strikezone with solid gap power.

Key stats: .325/.424/.598, 13 HR, 15% BB-rate, 12% K-rate, 28 SBs

Zane Schmidt, Hutchinson CC, 5’10”, RF/C/1B (J1) - Talk about a versatile defender, Hutchinson had Zane Schmidt see time in right field, at first base and catcher this season. He even pitched in a game where he allowed two runs. Having said that, Schmidt had a fantastic freshman season hitting close to .400 and crushed the ball for 43 total extra base hits (22 HRs).

Key stats: .395/.479/.782, 22 HR, 15% BB-rate, 15% K-rate

Liam Hicks, Mineral Area, 5’11”, C/1B (J2) - It’s a good thing that Liam Hicks can hit because his receiving skills still need work. He does have good pop times, but a rather sub par arm. Longterm, he’ll likley make the switch to first base. As for hitting, he has an advanced approach at the plate with a stellar BB:K rate, and good gap power.

Key stats: .440/.567/.807, 14 HR, 23% BB-rate, 11% K-rate, 33% CS%

Rody Barker, New Mexico, 5’8”, C/LF/2B (J2) - Have you ever wondered if a catcher could hit leadoff? Well Rody Barker has done that for the most part over the past two seasons and has excelled at it. For one, he’s a fantastic contact hitter. Second, his vision and knowledge of the strikezone is uncanny. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he is that old school scrappy type of player. Barker fractured four vertebrae and broke a rib back in high school (2016). So to come back from those injuries really says something about the type of player he is. Last season he hit .330 with 55 walks and followed that up by hitting .400 with 41 walks. As for his defense, he committed no errors and had no passed balls all while playing about half his games at catcher (25 games).

Key stats: .400/.551/.713, 8 HR, 26% BB-rate, 8% K-rate, 33% CS%

Cael Baker, Wabash Valley, 6’0”, 1B/C (J2) - Yet another D1 player (Cincinnati) that transferred after getting minmal playing time. The first thing you’ll notice about Cael Baker is his frame - standing 6’0 and 235 lbs, he’s a big guy, but also very strong. Baker ranked No. 1 in NJCAA in batting average, home runs and RBI. Yeah, that’s a Triple Crown! And he only struck out 12% of the time. The last Triple Crown winner was Brylie Ware back in 2016. Ware is currently a senior at Oklahoma where he finished the season with a .299 average and six home runs. So take the overall numbers with a grain of salt, but again, he had a terrific BB:K rate to go along with the absolutely bonkers power.

Key stats: .506/.596/.1.051, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 24% BB-rate, 12% K-rate, 17 SBs

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Yavapai, 6’1”, 3B (J1) - Strand ended his freshman campaign tied for second in the NJCAA in home runs with 22. He does have some swing and miss to his game, but still kept it under 20% on the season. He might not have the arm to keep playing third base long term, but if he does have to go across the diamond his bat profiles well at first.

Key stats: .402/.473/.828, 22 HR, 13% BB-rate, 18% K-rate

Others to note:

Manny Gonzalez - Hit just .175 in his first year at Wabash Valley with a 26% BB-rate and a 27% K-rate. He does have some tools with an above avg arm, plus speed and projectable power. Ranked No. 377 by Baseball America.

Trent Brown - Ranked No. 431 by Baseball America. He finished the season with a .294 average and five home runs. Brown had a 16% BB-rate vs a 23% K-rate. Average speed and arm, but a pretty good athlete.

Joab Gonzalez - Put up decent numbers including a .302 batting average, 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Overall, he’s a good athlete with a strong arm and solid defensive makeup. Gonzalez had a 19% BB-rate vs a 17% K-rate. Ranked No. 433 by Baseball America.

Oraj Anu - Oraj Anu was selected by the Red Sox in 2017 (28th round). He’s a switch hitter with good bat speed and power. He’s also a plus runner. This season he hit .398 with 18 home runs and kept his K-rate to just 14%.

Ashton Creal - The 6’1 outfielder has plus speed and an above average arm. After hitting .289 his freshman year, he finished this season with a .389 avg. Creal walked just as much as he struck out (14%), and he stole 38 bases.

If the Braves do draft a JUCO player, hopefully it’ll be someone off this list and you’ll be a bit more familiar with the pick. Let me know your thoughts below.