This has been a fun start to the year now that I’m writing for Talking Chop. I don’t think of myself as a writer by any means, just a guy that has a passion for the sport of baseball. Over the past few years, really since Coppy was brought on board, I decided to jump off the deep end for prospects. Even in the early years of my fandom, I’d heard such names like Wilson Betemit, David Justice and Chipper Jones. But it was all on the surface level and wasn’t anything that I ever tried to learn more about. The rebuild certainly expedited some of the thoughts I’d been recently having about all the players that make up a farm system. Data on prospects was become more readily available, but some of it still wasn’t all that good.
The folks at Talking Chop noticed my passion and were really able to coax more out of me than I thought possible. The MLB draft and prospects are becoming like second nature. I’m already hard at work researching for the 2019 draft class.
Speaking of draft classes, one of the more frustrating things for me as a fan was the draft. Most of the college and HS players were complete mysteries. I wanted to bring more familiarity with high school and college players for Braves fans. So hopefully this draft you recognized more names than in previous years.
The weekly prospect tracker was a lot of work manually pulling numbers. Most of the aggregate sites don’t update on weekends, so that meant I needed to pull numbers directly from each of the college sites every Sunday. I didn’t mind it because it was for a good cause. Maybe things will change next year, but I wanted to put out something that was fresh and to beat many of the aggregate sites with that info on who was hot and who was struggling.
Leading up to the draft, if you paid attention to my weekly series, you might have caught on to certain players that I was becoming enamored with. And a few of them were not top prospects. I even wrote about some of them for days 2 and 3 of the MLB Draft.
I wanted to circle around on the draft now that the MiLB season is over and do two things.
1. Check in on the players the Braves didn’t draft and how they performed
2. Have a fantasy re-redraft to see if choosing one of the players I wanted would have been the better pick
I am not going to do a complete shadow draft. Instead I’m only going to focus on the players I wrote about and was captivated with heading into the draft. In some instances, I thought the Braves picked the better player, while others I would have preferred my guy. I don’t pretend to know if the Braves had these guys on their board and how they graded them. It could be that they planned to take them all but another team pulled the trigger a round too soon. It’s more fantasy than anything else. Also, I won’t look at every round either, as most of the picks fell in the top 10. It’s an interesting retrospect for me, so let’s begin.
Round 2, pick 49
Braves pick – Greyson Jenista, OF
My pick – Owen White, RHP
For the 2nd round, I was all over the place on which player I really wanted, but it was definitely a HS player to keep the lower levels stocked with quality players. I wanted Nick Schnell, Parker Meadows, Owen White or Joe Gray Jr. Schnell and Meadows were long gone by the Braves pick. While Owen White didn’t even throw in a game after the draft, Joe Gray Jr had some struggles hitting 0.182 with a 26% K-rate. Then you have Griffin Conine and Nick Sandlin. While I wasn’t a fan of Conine, he certainly had the bloodlines. Meanwhile Nick Sandlin made his way across 4 levels to end the season in AA. I’m a big Nick Sandlin fan, but I had him more 3rd or 4th round. Now that I’ve had time to look back on this pick, I’m actually quite happy the Braves drafted Greyson Jenista. While Jenista had a down year by some, he was also overshadowed by Alec Bohm. There’s a lot to like about Jenista.
Round 4, pick 112
Braves pick – Tristan Beck, RHP
My pick – Kyle Bradish, RHP
Did anyone think Beck would still be here? I like Bradish, but this was a fantastic pick by the Braves. Once again, I’m ok siding with the Braves here and won’t put up a fight.
Round 5, pick 142
Braves pick – Trey Riley, RHP
My pick – Nolan Hoffman, RHP
I wrote an article earlier in the year on JUCO players and mentioned Riley. I love guys from smaller schools that go on to be successful. Riley has a good chance since he has 2 potential plus pitches, but his control is a big problem. Don’t get me wrong, I love high risk/high reward picks and this is what this is, but I would have played it a little safer. Instead, I would have put a bigger focus on relievers in this draft, and this would have been my first reliever pick and there were 5 guys I liked a lot. First, you can never have too much pitching. Second, a team always needs relievers and must have good ones in the pipeline for when current ones get too expensive. It’s just a must. Nolan Hoffman put up great stats in college, and he’s a side arm throw, which is just a plus in my book.
Hoffman would have saved the Braves money for other picks. He finished the season and A-Short league putting up a 1.12 WHIP with an 8.28 K-rate and a 2.88 BB-rate. He totaled 4 saves too.
Round 7, pick 202
Braves pick – Brooks Wilson, RHP
My pick – Brett Kinneman, OF
Well this is slightly embarrassing. After my short rant on relievers, I actually remove one to take an OF. Here’s the thing, we’ll be picking up a couple more here shortly. While Wilson put up some stellar numbers in college and seems to have that grit factor, I’m not quite sold that a reliever that throws 90-92 can really excel in today’s game. However, so far so good for Wilson as he pitched very well for the Braves with an ERA just a little over 1.00 and a 1.05 WHIP.
Brett Kinneman finished with a slash line of .253/.344/.413 and ended the season in A-Short ball. He still managed to hit 24 XBH and coupled that with a 12% BB-rate and a 29% K-rate. Kinneman won’t hit for average, but he hit 17 home runs his junior year of college and had a fantastic 17%-BB-rate. So he knows how to get on base at a high clip which is always valuable.
Wilson was mostly a budget pick since he signed well below slot. Don’t worry, we’ll get savings elsewhere to afford Kinneman who was a slot signing.
Round 8, pick 232
Braves pick – AJ Graffanino, SS
My pick – Joey Gerber, RHP
Graffanino didn’t really hit at college until this year. He carried that over after being drafted too finishing out the year hitting over .300. Joey Gerber was one of 2 relievers that were must haves for me, and Gerber didn’t disappoint in the least. He put up 43 strikeouts in 25 innings. Yeah, that’s an insane 15.36 K-rate. He also recorded 8 saves in a short period of time. So while Graffanino is a fine pick, he signed way over slot too. Gerber was an at slot guy, so the savings here will help pay for Kinneman.
Round 9, pick 262
Braves pick – Ryan Shetter, RHP
My pick – Keegan McGovern, OF
Shetter was mediocre pick that didn’t put up great stats in college and in his short stint with the Braves. All this and he signed almost at slot. He had a 1.30 WHIP and a 3.90 ERA. Meanwhile, McGovern was one hell of a hitter for the local Georgia Bulldogs. He also signed way under slot too! His slash line after being drafted was .271/.351/.518. He hit 15 home runs in 69 games and totaled 31 XBH. He finished the season in Low-A too.
Just crazy that McGovern lasted so long and signed so cheaply for being a junior. I’d love to ask the Braves scouts about this one.
Round 10, pick 292
Braves pick – Brett Langhorne, 3B
My pick – Luke Reynolds, 3B
Well isn’t this interesting as both players are third basemen. Langhorne couldn’t even get playing time at Tennessee so he transferred to a junior college. Meanwhile, Luke Reynolds played for Southern Miss (Conf USA) hitting .389 with 15 home runs, and gets passed for a guy that hit .323 with 6 home runs for a junior college team. Ok, to be fair Langhorne was an under slot player. I make no apologies, I followed Reynolds for most of the season and was one of my favorites leading up to the draft. So I’m a bit bitter for this pick. McGovern was an under slot guy and a much better player than Langhorne, so why not go for the local guy? This isn’t even my most frustrating pick.
Luke Reynolds slash line after draft is .265/.366/.386 with a 14% BB-rate and a 24% K-rate. Langhorne’s slash line is very similar but with a much higher K-rate (31%). At least CJ Alexander is making me forget about Reynolds a little bit.
Top 10 recap:
The first 10 rounds count toward the bonus cap, and anything after round 10 players must sign at/below $125K, or it counts toward the bonus cap. Let’s see how I did for the first 10 rounds.
Braves total original Signing Bonus - $3,315,000
Out are Trey Riley, Brooks Wilson, AJ Graffanino, Ryan Shetter and Brett Langhorne
In are Nolan Hoffman, Brett Kinneman, Joey Gerber, Keegan McGovern and Luke Reynolds
My picks total Signing Bonus - $3,212,900
Well alright, I finished slightly below what the Braves did. Boo-ya!
Rounds 14-17
Braves picks – Victor Vodnik, RHP; Greg Cullen, 2B; Ty Harpenau, RHP; Justin Dean, OF
My picks – Matt Frisbee, RHP; Alex Holderback, C; Cesar Trejo, IF/OF; Ethan DeCaster, RHP
Getting a HS talent like Vodnik for $200K (slightly over the $125K cap) is a damn bargain. Matt Frisbee is a nice player, but I’m happy with Vodnik.
Like the previous pick, Greg Cullen was a guy I discussed in the prospect recaps before. He doesn’t have any power, but the guy can hit and has a stellar 1:1 walk to strikeout ratio. I liked Holderback quite a bit, but I’ll be happy sacrificing my pick for Cullen since I’ll get the catcher I was even higher on a bit later.
Cesar Trejo is a solid contact hitter with some speed. Not much power, but the guy hit close to .400 his junior year and stole over 20 bases. Give me players that can hit, and Trejo ups his value by being able to play all over the infield and outfield. Ty Harpenau put up pedestrian numbers in college, but didn’t pitch after being drafted. I don’t know Harpenau that well, but I’d have loved Cesar Trejo.
Ethan DeCaster is easily my most frustrated non-pick. One, I talked about this guy and the straight up nasty slider he has. A true strikeout pitch. He then goes on to put up a 0.84 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP to go along with a 10.97 K-rate and a 1.69 BB-rate after being drafted. He moved up quickly too and ended the year in High-A. DeCaster was one of 5 players that I liked in the draft (not drafted by the Braves) that made it up to High-A. He was the only pitcher of the bunch to do so too. Ok, so what’s the most frustrating part? He signed for a mere $4K! Justin Dean has been great for the Braves, but c’mon, this makes me want to pull my hair out.
Round 23, pick 682
Braves pick – William Woods, RHP
My pick – Hayden Senger, C
William Woods was a J1 player so he’s still really young at 19 years old when drafted. Can’t be mad about this type of upside pick. He certainly wasn’t good in his short stint after getting drafted posting a 1.55 WHIP and an ERA over 6.00. However, Hayden Senger is a really good defensive catcher (42% CS-rate his junior year in college) with solid contact skills (.342 avg with a 7% K-rate). Senger’s slash line after getting drafted - .301/.411/.417 with an 11% BB-rate and a 27% K-rate.
Overall recap:
Kept Greyson Jenista, Tristan Beck, Greg Cullen and Victor Vodnik
Out are Trey Riley, Brooks Wilson, AJ Graffanino, Ryan Shetter and Brett Langhorne, Ty Harpenau, Justin Dean and William Woods
In are Nolan Hoffman, Brett Kinneman, Joey Gerber, Keegan McGovern and Luke Reynolds, Cesar Trejo, Ethan DeCaster and Hayden Senger
The best thing of all is that this was perfectly with the constraints of the draft bonus caps. I hate what-ifs, but I just can’t help but feel the Braves could have done a smidge better. And adding stud relievers like Hoffman, Gerber and DeCaster to some of the others the Braves drafted would have been a worthy highlight. Having said that, the scouting department for the Braves is just phenomenal. Mad props to all the hard working people over there. This draft was pretty great.
For the 2016 draft, I didn’t know that many prospects, but it was the first time the Braves drafted a player I Iiked in the draft. That player was Joey Wentz. It was a weird feeling. So many players in a draft and the Braves drafted someone I was familiar with and liked.
In 2018, The Braves drafted around 10 prospects I was actually familiar with including Greg Cullen, Brendan Venter, Mitch Stallings and Andrew Moritz.
Another interesting thing to note is that I feel like the Blue Jays must be looking at my sheet, because they drafted a lot of players I was keeping close tabs on. The Royals and Mariners were two other teams that snatched up some of my favorites in the draft too. But of course the Cubs were the team that drafted Luke Reynolds. Drats!
Let me know your thoughts on the players I wanted to get drafted. Are there any players you wanted to get drafted? Any player you liked get taken by a team you absolutely hate? How many prospect names did you recognize that the Braves drafted?