Over the past few years the Braves have spent many picks on pitching, whether elite prep talent or a cheap senior sign. One of the cruel things about baseball is the bust rate of prospects. The past two seasons have shown promising arms like Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair and Lucas Sims not live up to expectations as former top 100 prospects by holding a starting spot for the Atlanta Braves. Even Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz have been uneven over the course of their careers. One thing is for sure is that you can never have enough pitching.
That brings us to Carter Stewart, who brings a traditional 3 pitch mix of fastball, curve and changeup. Before the season began, Stewart was seen as a 1st round pick, but more toward the 2nd half of the 1st round. Heading into his senior season people already knew about his curve, however, his fastball was only topping out at 92 mph and was mostly sitting in the high 80’s. Not exactly top 10 material.
Let’s discuss why he’s now considered a top 10 prospect and why he’d be a good fit for the Braves.
Physical Profile:
18 years old, 6’6”, 200 pounds, RHP. Athletic with a considerable amount of projection. Has the size to be a durable workhorse type of pitcher. Currently attends Eau Gallie (FL) HS.
High School Stats:
2017: 69.1IN, 37H, 14R (8ER), 104K, 21BB – 0.81 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
2018: 61.2IN, 26H, 13R (8ER), 128K, 18BB – 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
*Pitching grades will go by current grade as well as future grade, similar to Fangraphs.
Fastball Grade: 60FV/70FV
All spring long Carter Stewart has been working 91-94 consistently while touching 95/96 every game. He’s been clocked as high as 98 mph, so the consensus is that his velocity should inch more toward sitting mid 90’s once he’s done filling out. As mentioned above, he was only topping out at 92 last season, so he’s shown considerable growth in such a short period of time. Due to his height he creates a downward plane with his fastball. With his length coupled with a mid 90’s fastball, his perceived velocity could be much higher.
Curveball Grade: 65FV/70FV
At the beginning of the season his curveball was sitting in the low 80’s, but like his fastball, he’s seen the velocity on his curve bumped up to the mid 80’s. More importantly than the velocity is the ridiculous spin rate he generates that makes the pitch truly special. His curve has been tracked consistently hitting RPM’s over 3,200 (even over 3,500 RPMs). It’s a 12/6 curve that due to the insane spin rate causes a sharp downward break that’s tough to lay off.
Our player write up of RHP Carter Stewart, a potential top 10 overall pick in the 2018 #MLBDraft Stewart has an elite spin rate on his curveball over 3,400 RPM and a fastball sitting 93-96 mph.https://t.co/8D7S0hZzEq
— JT Baseball Scouting (@JTScouting) May 2, 2018
Changeup Grade: 45FV/50FV
Stewart throws a circle change around 83-86 mph and is currently below average, but has potential to be at least an average offering later on. Stewart will slow his arm down when throwing the pitch too. He hasn’t needed to throw it much, so it’ll have to be something he focuses on after the draft.
Control Grade: 45FV/55FV
Overall his control is pretty good for a taller pitcher who’s gaining in velocity, which means he still has quite a bit of work to do. He did average close to 3BB/9 this past season. Also, his command of his curveball is still a work in progress. He has a good feel for it and can snap off the pitch, but it lands out of the strike zone a bit too much. He’s going to have to show he can throw that pitch consistently for strikes cause more advanced hitters will just lay off that pitch no matter how many RPMs he throws it at.
Future:
The potential is that Carter Stewart will end up with 2 plus-plus offerings with at least an average changeup and control. His ceiling is among the highest in this draft with top of the rotation stuff, but likely a #2/#3 type when all is said and done.
If the draft follows the mocks, then Carter Stewart has a good chance of being available when the Braves pick. It might come down to whether the Padres, who pick just before the Braves, go with Matthew Liberatore or Carter Stewart.
Carter Stewart is my #1 crush right now. He’d be a great fit for the Atlanta Braves as the team continues to build around pitching and have solidified many positions with young talent. As we’ve seen, you can never have too much pitching.