Coming into this spring Oregon State outfielder Trevor Larnach wasn’t slugging Oregon State outfielder Trevor Larnach. Rather he was a very strong college player from an elite program better known for his hitting and getting on base than for destroying baseballs.
Then as soon as the college season started it was clear on that first weekend who the 2018 version of the Brent Rooker breakout award would be: Larnach. Rooker was a good college player at a top program who made some changes in his swing and saw a breakout in power back in 2017.
Similar to Rooker saw his changes push him from solid prospect to first round pick, Larnach’s swing changes will make him a first round pick this June.
That’s where the similarities between the two end actually, as Larnach is a different kind of hitter than Rooker. He’s also quite different from another 2017 breakout turned first round pick- Virginia outfielder turned Phillie Adam Haseley.
Stats
2016-51 AB, .157/.271/.176, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 15 K
Cape-80 AB, .275/.402/.350, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 17 BB, 21 K
2017-198 AB, .303/.421/.429, 16 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 39 BB, 53 K
Cape-104 AB, .308/.390/.442, 9 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 28 K
2018-195 AB, .328/.450/.656, 13 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 38 BB, 46 K
Physical Profile
Trevor Larnach is a 6’4”, 205 pound outfielder for Oregon State who hits left handed and throws right handed. The 21 year old junior originally from Pleasant Hill, California was drafted in the 40th round by the Padres in 2015.
Hit-55
This is the main reason I said Larnach is much different than Rooker overall. Rooker was a capable hitter, but he always had and will have swing and miss in his game. It’s just something that happens with power hitters. Larnach isn’t so much a power hitter as he is a very good hitter who happens to make hard contact- and that’s what leads to his homeruns. Think of him as a similar type of style hitter as Ozzie Albies. Albies is a much better contact hitter, but like Albies Larnach doesn’t have the raw power his numbers indicate.
Larnach also has a great approach. He’s the kind of hitter who will take his share of walks and then some. Even before his power showed up this year Larnach was a high on base guy, even in the Cape.
Below is a tweet from respected West Coast hitting instructor Sam Monroy.
Trevor Larnach....
— Sam Monroy (@Socal_prospects) May 13, 2018
Will make a living out of putting the sweet spot on the ball ala Rafael Palmeiro. Graceful swing without much effort, strain or violence. Hands/wrist are loose. Should maintain or enhance role value. Present day comp Freddie Freeman. (292. 26 94) #mlbdraft18 pic.twitter.com/Y5zDnjZSEz
OF Trevor Larnach getting work in during BP. Physical presence at the plate. Strong wrists. Easy lag. #mlbdraft @d1baseball @DSeifertD1PBR pic.twitter.com/ybwxwcfoHN
— Shooter Hunt (@ShooterHunt) March 10, 2018
Power-55
Prior to their power breakouts, Rooker showed power while Larnach’s was limited to gap power. Rooker also has more raw power potential than Larnach has, as Rooker’s grades as plus while Larnach is more above average to potentially plus depending on how much more it may develop. I’m not ready to slap a plus grade on Larnach’s power right now, but will acknowledge that there is some remaining growth potential considering this is a new thing for him and he’s had plenty of gap power in his past.
Trevor Larnach's two-run got Goss on their feet to score the @OpusBank #12Best Moment.#Pac12BSB pic.twitter.com/Dawu2l9Nbr
— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) May 12, 2018
Scratch that, make it 9-0. @BeaverBaseball's Trevor Larnach goes yard immediately following Rutschman.
— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) May 16, 2018
Watch on our app: https://t.co/ZhZuI5ezsa pic.twitter.com/F3IgY6vjEW
Run-40
This is the weakness of Larnach. He’s a below average runner now and is only likely to slow as he ages. It’s not out of the question that the right fielder needs to eventually move to left field as a pro because of how much foot speed he has. He’s not a base clogger like Seth Beer is for example, but running will never be his strength.
Glove-45-50
This depends on his position. If you put Larnach in right field his defense will grade as the below average 45 because he doesn’t have the ideal foot speed. If he moves to left he likely won’t be an asset in the field, but he will do enough to not hurt a team.
Arm-55
Larnach has a strong arm, making him an ideal fit for right field if he doesn’t slow down too much. The arm isn’t quite a big arm or even a plus grade, but it’s above average. If you put him in left and combine the 50 glove and 55 arm, you’ve got an asset in your outfield as that’s an above average defender.
Future
Larnach is a bat first college outfielder. He’s got an excellent approach and developing in game power. He’s the kind of guy that could hit high in a lineup because of his on base skills, but he could also be a guy you put into a more run producer type of lineup slot.
I like Larnach more than both Rooker and Haseley. Rooker’s swing and miss and potentially ending up at first base. With Haseley it comes down to me never fully buying into Haseley’s bat even though the rest of his tools give him more room to succeed than a bat first guy such as Larnach.
If Larnach is the Braves pick at eight, it’s not going to come as a slot deal. Larnach is a good player, but the reason you take him at such a high draft spot this year is because you can also get some bonus pool flexibility out of the selection. That extra pool money could really help this year in a strong draft, where the Braves are already missing a key pick(and it’s associated pool total), and need to fill up another wave of talent in the system.