Ronald Acuna
Despite his objectively long swing which makes him incapable of hitting major league pitching, Ronald Acuña has excelled this spring.*** He not only led the Braves in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, RBIs, hits, and runs, but ranks near the top of the entire league in all of those categories. Although he was assigned to minor league camp on Monday to give the Braves an extra season of control (see bottom), he proved once again that he is ready to make his mark in the major leagues. With the amount of attention surrounding him when he came into camp and the target that placed on his back, his success is even more impressive and further evidence that 2017 wasn’t a fluke.
***This is not an opinion anyone at Talking Chop shares (well, maybe Eric). If you don’t understand the joke let’s just say twitter is a magical place, for better or worst. (Editor’s note: Garrett has now volunteered to watch every game the Miami Marlins play in person. We wish him well. - Eric)
Dustin Peterson
Dustin Peterson had an interesting spring and showed some signs of turnaround from his injury-plagued 2017 season, but once again displayed the problems that have prevented him from rising past being just a fringy prospect. Peterson hit 2 home runs and a double which is a welcome sign after his hamate bone (assumedly) caused a steep decline in his power production last season, but Peterson also struck out 11 times and only walked once in 28 plate appearances. Small sample size and spring training caveats aside, Peterson’s lack of walks have long prevented him from being an OBP machine and his simply average contact and power skills make for a difficult profile for a left fielder. With Ronald Acuna and Ender Inciarte already in the fold, Cristian Pache on his way up, and money to spend in the next free agent class, Peterson has a lot to prove to make himself a piece the Braves feel they can rely on. This spring showed that his power output from last season was certainly a fluke, but wasn’t what you want to see out of a guy whose large jump in strikeouts last season also led to his disappointing campaign.
Alex Jackson
Jackson has shown roughly the same profile as Peterson offensively (albeit a bit more power, bit less contact), but benefits from being a catcher. His spring was a struggle with 9 strikeouts and no walks in his 18 at bats, but Jackson is also jumping from Double-A, and never really had much success there. Jackson’s ability to play catcher gives him an advantage over a player like Peterson, but should he need to move off of the position he would also have a similarly difficult to project profile. Jackson’s defense this spring was a huge improvement over last year, when he was thrust into the position a bit later than one would want, and he gave even more belief that he can stick at catcher. The bat could come, it may not, but if the Braves want Jackson to become an impact player he will have to develop defensively to stay behind the plate. Jackson has the potential to be a nice left fielder, but far from elite. However, with a similar batting profile, he could have an elite ceiling as a catcher with 20+ home run potential.
Austin Riley
Austin Riley has been a bit all-or-nothing in his career, with white hot streaks and ice cold months that have added up to a very solid prospect thus far. Spring was much the same for Riley as he only batted .208 but knocked 4 of his 5 hits for extra bases (including two home runs) to give him a .334 ISO. Riley has also dropped a few bombs in minor league camp and continues to grow into more and more power as he matures. Even with that growth in power, Riley has continued to improve his defense and mobility each year, going from a questionable and error prone third baseman in Rome to a now solid and at least league average third baseman in just two years. Given Riley’s tendency to start slow, especially with his power production, it’s great to see him hitting the ball squarely and as he adjusts the strikeouts should level out.
Cristian Pache
Pache’s 10 at bats this spring were fairly unsuccessful, with just a couple of hits to show, but that’s exactly what we were expecting out the 19 year old. Do we really care about that? Let’s talk about how his regular season is shaping up, as he likely heads to the Florida State League to join up with the Florida Fire Frogs. Following a season where the only question mark for Pache was his power production, going into the FSL and eventually the Southern League (maybe not this year but I’ll guess he will) will not be a fun task. So when you statline scout Pache this season because the Florida State League isn’t on MiLB tv, keep that in mind. A jump in doubles, as well as an increase in fly ball rate is what you should be looking for, and physical maturity combined with a move to more friendly confines will show Pache’s game power down the road. Superstar potential is rare, so enjoy it while we watch him grow.
Stat comparison:
Ronald Acuna in Low A: 15.6% K, 10.8% BB, 62.7% GB, 16.4% LD, 16.4% FB
Cristian Pache Low A: 20.2% K, 7.6% BB, 53.6% GB, 19% LD, 18.7% FB.
Pache also had less protection behind him in the lineup and a much less talented league of pitchers against him, though I will by no means compare the two too directly because both are freaks in unique ways.
William Contreras
William Contreras received two plate appearances for the Braves this spring and made an out in both, so there isn’t going to be much to talk about from Major League camp. Reports from minor league camp, though sparse, have been glowing and this gives me an opportunity to give you my opinions on Contreras. The Braves don’t currently have a catching prospect in their system that I’m 100% confident in both defensively and offensively (though I’m 90/100 on AJax) except for Contreras. I’ve been hesitant on Contreras due to my lack of exposure more than anything, but I have been impressed that he has done what I like to see most in a prospect. He’s advanced a level and continued to improve his performance each step along the way, has kept his strikeouts manageable, and has shown the athleticism to excel at the major league level. His first taste of full season ball will be interesting to watch and by July it will be much easier to get a feel for him as a prospect once he faces more talented and experienced opposition.
Max Fried
Following his dominance in the fall league there was some expectation that Fried could challenge for a spot in the rotation on opening day in 2018. Fried struggled in his 6 2⁄3 innings of work allowing 13 hits and 5 runs and was assigned to minor league camp ending his run at a role in Atlanta. Fried started off each of his first two seasons in the organization very slowly (both with injury questions) and the hope was that he could conquer that beast and come out of the gates strong this year. That doesn’t seem to be the case, though Fried probably needs more time in Triple-A to refine his stuff. Fried will once again have to show his mental fortitude in bouncing back from another (albeit minor) setback to his path to becoming a consistent piece in a big league rotation.
In 2016, Fried came back from Tommy John and led the Rome Braves in one of the most impressive individual postseason possible. In 2017 he came back from injury (blister) to put up a dominant performance late and be one of the stars of the Arizona Fall League, so history seems to be on his side.
AJ Minter
AJ Minter is doing his thing in spring training, dominating hitters as he has done so often in the past. Minter hasn’t allowed a run in 6 1⁄3 innings this spring, with 9 strikeouts to one walk. On it’s own this is nothing that couldn’t be attributed to a small sample (Sam Freeman has 8 Ks and hasn’t allowed a run in 6 2/3), but when kept in context of his dominance in Atlanta last season and in the minor leagues it is further evidence pointing towards the development of Minter as a late inning beast for the Braves. Minter now has a 35 K/ 3 BB ratio in 21 1⁄3 innings with the major league club counting spring training and the regular season. Doesn’t get any better than that.
Kolby Allard
Kolby Allard has been receiving a surprising number of negative opinions lately, namely that his stuff isn’t quite what the Braves thought they were getting when they drafted him and that maybe he is more of a back end type. Unfortunately, Allard didn’t help that image much in his limited time with the big league club walking three and striking out one in 3 innings. Still, it’s mostly unwarranted attention because Allard has proven that he can succeed even without his best stuff. Coming off of two consecutive shortened years, Allard struggled a bit to maintain his stuff towards the end of 2017. I mean of course he did. He’s 20, never had pitched more than 87 2⁄3 innings in a season, and suddenly jumped all the way to Double-A where he pitched 150. Is Allard an ace-potential player? Probably not. But it’s best to back off of the negativity a bit for a player who thus far in his career has been pretty impressive, and has shown 3 average or better pitches with a good feel for pitching.
Mike Soroka
One home run aside Soroka was stellar for the Braves in spring training, with 5 innings at a strikeout per inning and no walks. Soroka’s stock has been soaring lately as he has pushed past the “average stuff” label and shown his ability to turn good pitches into great ones with his feel of command and sequencing. Soroka showed once again that his consistency is a marvel and that his style and stuff can work at any level. 2018 for Soroka will be a waiting game, as it seems more a matter of “when” rather than “if” as he continues to show his major league readiness. Performances in minor league camp have been even more impressive, the most recent of with was a 4 inning shutout with 7 strikeouts and one walk.
Kyle Wright
It’s hard to know what to feel about Kyle Wright performance-wise, because the Braves have done their best to keep him invisible (in Florida in leagues that don’t have cameras) so far in his pro career, but let’s talk about performance. 2 1⁄3 innings, 1 strikeout, 1 walk, 4 runs. I mean I don’t wanna say it was bad, but it wasn’t a good little sample. I don’t care about performance, let’s talk about look. Wright has four pitches, all with movement, all with velocity (and separation of velocity) and all of which he has shown to be able to locate at times. Reports also rave about his poise, maturity, and intellect. So, yeah, a lot to like here. He came in with 17 professional innings, then added 2 1⁄3 more in exhibition games. I couldn’t care less about the numbers in that time frame, but I do care about that stuff that could make him the front line starter the Braves need to be consistent playoff contenders.
Ricardo Sanchez
Ricardo Sanchez held his own in his first major league camp with 2 scoreless innings, and that’s really all you could ask of him in that short time frame. Sanchez has shown the stuff on and off since he was 17 to be a solid major league starter, and his only problem has been a lack of consistency and performance. Now a member of the 40 man roster, the Braves want to see that stuff pay off on the stat sheet a bit more. Sanchez has struggled to stay healthy more than anything, and even when he is pitching often doesn’t seem 100%. Sanchez is only 20 (21 on April 11) and has plenty of time to develop, so immediate results aren’t necessary, but would be pretty nice.
Other players of note:
Jesse Biddle made 3 successful appearances in Atlanta. If he continues to perform like he did in 2017, he will be one of the first Braves called up to join the bullpen. Josh Graham was solid in his time in Atlanta, although he gave up a few hits and runs he struck guys out and showed the potential to be a solid relief arm. Dylan Moore hit a home run in one of his two at bats, which is more than he did basically his entire 2017 season, so that’s nice. Jokes aside, Moore was abysmal and probably as unlucky as totally awful and I expect he will recover in 2018 and put himself in contention for a bench role next season.
Note: The Braves sent Ronald Acuna down to Triple-A, where he will remain for the first two or so weeks of the season. This will grant the Braves an extra year of service time, as he will not have accumulated the 172 days necessary to count as a full season (see this Fangraphs article for a more detailed explanation). This isn’t against the rules, and while maybe it’s not the nicest thing in the world it won’t affect the Braves ability to sign Acuna in free agency (though if he’s as good as we hope the Braves probably won’t have the cash to sway him). 7 years is a lot of water under the bridge and Acuna will long since have put it past him, the only way the relationship could truly sour is over something closer to the end of his tenure.
It’s a good strategy on paper, but the truth is that loophole (kinda) shouldn’t exist. If the rule were extended to, say, two months, a team in contention or on the precipice of being so would have a serious decision to make. If your team misses the playoffs because of a bad first two weeks, one player isn’t really going to change that. It’s a no-brainer, leave the kid down, but make it two months and a team like the Braves, who with Acuna could feasibly make a playoff push, would have to decide if that extra year is worth sacrificing a chance at the postseason this year. A change probably won’t happen, because the CBA protects current Major League Players and owners, and they couldn’t care less about a 20 year old up-and-comer. Trying to protect a select few players of an elite caliber means the Players Union would have to compromise in another area, harming them directly for something that won’t provide them any benefit. It’s a selfish business, unfortunately, and they won’t make that move. That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen though.