FanPost

Analyzing Lucas Sims' First Start

Statcast data for Sims' first start is out, and it matches pretty well with the scouting reports and the eye test from last night.

He had 5 different pitches according to the radar tracking system: SI, FA, CU, CH, SL.

SI (29%): 91.9 MPH, -9.6 xMov, 6.2 zMov
FA (18%): 91.3 MPH, -4.8 xMov, 9.0 zMov
CU (18%): 75.9 MPH, 7.1 xMov, -5.1 zMov
CH (17%): 83.2 MPH, -11.1 xMov, 1.1 zMov
SL (16%): 86.3 MPH, 0.7 xMov, 2.8 zMov

Right away, just the presence of 5 pitches is encouraging. But, how good are they?

SI: Average velo, above average horizontal movement, below average sink. This is more accurately described as a two-seamer in movement, but a sinker in velo. I don't think this is a good pitch, but is clearly his best fastball variant...must be why he used it 2x more than the 4 seamer.

FA: Below average velo, average movement. This is also a below average pitch.

CU: Below average velo, more of a sweeper than a downward hammer with above average horizontal movement and below average drop. This pitch is not plus, but is at least average.

CH: Acceptable velo delta from FA/SI, very good fade and sink. This is a good pitch. I'm not sure where the bad reports on his CH come from, so unless he telegraphs it or leaves it in bad locations, this pitch should generate a lot of grounders and other weak contact.

SL: Good velo, below average movement. I don't think this is a good pitch.

So, in summation, Sims has a usable SI, a CU that is at least average, and the physics of a plus CH. Seems to me he needs to ditch the 4 seamer and the slider, and get to work perfecting his 3 usable pitches and their sequencing/location.

Sims seems like a back-end guy to me who will not be able to stick in the rotation at all when his velo starts to deteriorate any further. Use him up for a few years, and ship him out.


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