Merry Trade Season to all!
Trying to take part in the joy of trade season, even though the Braves aren’t serious contenders this year, I have followed all the rumors surrounding the Braves (particularly Jaime). But in the midst of it, I’ve read several commenters mention Yu Darvish, which got me thinking. And since Coppy clearly wants a front-line starter, I decided it was worth a deeper look.
I confess up front that A) I’ve been a Darvish fan since I had him on a fantasy baseball team a few years back and he DOMINATED and B) the call for signing Darvish is not my original idea (obviously).
First, we should look at the money situation to decide if it is even reasonable to assume the Braves could be finalists in the Darvish Sweepstakes.
Second, I want to look at the numbers of a healthy Yu Darvish to get an idea of how much of an improvement he would be to the Braves’ rotation.
Third, we’ll look at the bigger picture, to include other rotation pieces, the top tier pitching prospects, the overall team makeup in 2018 with Darvish, and the financial picture starting 2020. We’ll try to determine if the upgrade of Yu is A) worth the price, B) if the timing makes sense, and C) if this is the one big FA worth putting all our chips on.
1] The Money.
I won’t pretend to know what to expect Yu Darvish to get in free agency, so I’ll leave that to the comments section if you want to help out in that regard. But we have to have something to start with. A 30-year-old David Price obtained a 7 year, $217M contract. Yu Darvish is 30, so a 7 year contract isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Darvish has never put up a 5.0 WAR season, where Price has two seasons at 6.0 WAR, so Darvish is not quite on Price’s level as a pitcher. But there are only so many "aces" in baseball and many consider Yu one of those aces. Darvish has a little bit of an injury history, so maybe he doesn’t go for Price’s total value, but any team that expects to win the bidding should at least have the ability to go 20-30M/season for 7 years. Right?
Are the Braves a team that COULD do 30M a year?
I won’t recreate all of Cot's glorious work, so go here.
Assumption 1) The Braves’ payroll will stay relatively the same, with a 5% potential swing.
Assumption 2) The Braves don’t select R.A. Dickey’s option in 2018 and Darvish fills up the empty rotation spot (looking at potential dollars available requires us to consider a scenario where they trim fat to get Dervish. Besides, Dickey is a good off-season trade candidate even if his option is selected).
Assumption 3) Jason Motte’s salary goes to increased arbitration salaries, so that’s a wash.
Assumption 4) Matt Adams is traded before this deadline (even if for a loss in prospect value) to avoid arbitration salary in 2018. Dustin Peterson takes his bench spot as a PH, 1B, LF, RF backup.
Assumption 5) Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis won’t be moved because nobody wants their contracts, and Coppy won’t waste good prospects for cash relief.
Assumption 6) Despite annual attempts, Julio is not traded until 2019 because he is simply worth more to the Braves with his friendly contract than anyone is willing to pay for his streaky performance.
In this scenario, the Braves will have $26M available from Brandon Phillips and Jaime Garcia, and another roughly 9.8M from Dickey and Matt Adams. That’s almost $36M in savings. Subtract some for arbitration salaries and extending Flowers, but the Braves clearly have the 20-30M needed to attract Darvish.
2. Upgrade?
It’s a no-brainer that inserting Darvish into the rotation makes the rotation better. Its more complicated than simply substituting Yu for Dickey, but since aces only match up on opening day, playoffs, and a few random games a season, a simple Yu for Dickey swap is close enough for our purposes.
Yu exceeded 4.5 WAR his first two seasons in MLB and 3.7 in 2014. Yu then missed a year and a half (all of 2015 into 2016). Yu is on pace for around 4.0 WAR again this season.
I’m intentionally going to cherry pick here, since signing Yu would be done with the expectation he produces at his previous 4.5 WAR potential. Dickey was 1.0 WAR last year and going to end 2017 about the same. It’s reasonable to assume he is no better than 1.0 WAR in 2018, for an estimated 3.5 WAR difference. Of course, this only accounts for 2018, while the investment in Yu will be for half a decade or more.
I’m not sure how to measure the upgrade value of Yu as our #1, but I am very confident in thinking Yu is a significantly better option to square-off against a Sale, Kershaw, Scherzer, Price, or Mad Bum than Julio Teheran in an elimination series.
3 Big Picture
If someone else has the time, what would a rotation of Yu, (good) Julio, Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, and Lucas Sims looks like on paper compared to the NL East?
Should injury or poor performance warrant a need, the rotation would have reinforcements in Blair and Wiser, as well as Allard, Soroka, Gohara, and Fried (assuming he comes back healthy) by mid-2018 as well as Kyle Wright possibly late in 2018. This depth allows the Braves the safety net of letting Dickey go and saving that money.
With Sean Rodríguez, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz all available, a decent manager should find a platoon option at 3B that doesn’t make 3B a big hole. Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Camargo/Ruiz is a very young infield, so expectations should be tempered, but there is still the makings of an exciting core.
Ronald Acuña makes his début after Super 2, and Markakis is moved by the deadline and Ronald becomes the star.
In short, adding Yu suddenly makes the Braves playoff hopefuls.
Now the dreaming and scheming… what if Shohei Otani does decide to come to America after the 2017 season is over?
Otani will be posted whenever he chooses to come to the U.S., based on an agreement he has with the Fighters. Yu Darvish is Otani’s childhood icon. Otani already has millions of dollars from his professional career and sponsorships in Japan. Japanese culture is not the same as American, where money is not the only significant factor in a decision. Yes, if Otani waits a few more years he can make more than he can now under the new international rules, but if Otani’s goal is to play with Yu Darvish, this would be the time to come to the States. If Darvish signs a long-term contract, I would not be surprised to see that team become an immediate contender to land Otani soon after.
If that team happens to be on the cusp of greatness, with a loaded system promising a decade of potential, that team becomes even more attractive. If that team will have the financial resources available in a year or two to buy out the remaining arbitration years and extend a contract (wait…kinda like Ender, or Freddie Freeman…), that team would become very attractive. While MLB would frown upon a team giving Otani more than league minimum the first year (which would negate their new system), the Braves could easily give Otani fair "arbitration" valued salary starting the second or third year, and then just give him a long-term deal like FF got and buy out all of his arbitration from the start.
Hello, Braves.
With Kemp and Markakis coming off the books, as well as Julio (most likely traded 2019), that gives the Braves an additional $43M and change available by 2020 (in addition to the money spent on Yu). So money won’t be the issue.
The Braves can offer Otani the chance to be a two-way player, at least as an experiment to start with.
In 2018 he can split time with Markakis in RF and Kemp in LF to start the season. When Acuna comes up at the end of June, Acuna can split time with Markakis (to keep Nick’s trade value up while introducing a young Acuna and easing him in) and Otani can split time with Kemp between starts. I think Kemp’s hips could use the extra rest anyways. Otani could play 2-3 games between LF and RF and pinch hitter, pitch, and then have a day off. When Acuna takes over RF, Otani could play 2 games in LF, have a day off (pinch hit), pitch, have a day off (pinch hit).
By the trade deadline, the 2018 Braves would look like this:
Yu, Otani, Julio, Folty, Newcomb. (with Sims in the bullpen or AAA)
OF: Kemp/Otani, Ender, Acuna (with Dustin Peterson the 4th OF, PH)
INF: Rodriguez, Swanson, Albies, FF (Camargo as the utility)
2019:
Yu, Otani, Folty, Newcomb, Wright
2020:
Yu, Otani, Wright, Gohara/Allard, Soroka (Folty and Newcomb traded or closing)
OF: Otani/Waters, Ender/Pache, Acuna (DPete a PH)
INF: Maitan, Swanson, Albies, FF
While this seems to go against Coppy’s current strategy, it should be noted that he has always stated pitching prospects are a currency. With Yu and Otani added, that makes Julio expendable for more top prospects. With the waves of pitchers coming behind, a young, controlled pitcher like Folty, Newcomb, or Sims could be traded without leaving a gap in the rotation, and could bring a tremendous return. If the 2020 rotation of Yu, Otani, Wright, Gohara/Allard, and Soroka were to never be traded, that rotation would last through at least 2024. Gohara/Allard, Sims, Folty, Newcomb, Anderson, Fried, Wentz, Muller, Touki and others could all be traded for top prospects, keeping the farm eternally full and replenishing. This would be a self-sustaining system for a decade.
If the Braves grab Yu during the offseason for a 7 year, 20M AAV contract, I think Otani will decide to come to the States and join Yu for 6 of those 7 years. The Braves would be getting the best all-around player on the planet in addition to Yu Darvish. And they can afford both. Yu, Otani, Julio, Folty, and Newcomb could become arguably the best 5-man rotation in the MLB starting in 2018, with a top 3 that could stand against Boston. And the rotation would only get better each year. The Braves would be playoff favorites in 2018.
Bryce Harper becomes a Yankee 2019.
Kevin Maitan arrives 2020.
The Braves dominate the NL East for 14 straight years.
