Braves Quote For The Day ... A Good Lesson For All Teams

by gondeee on Mar 15, 2011 10:13 AM EDT in Braves Quote For The Day

Joel Sherman of the New York Post laments the choices made to fill the rotation by both the Mets and the Yankees. Here are a couple of snipped quotes from his story about their broken toys:

There just is not enough starting pitching. You search and search, and eventually begin to look at the broken toys. There is a seduction based on name recognition and track records. There is a success now and then, like Brett Myers leaving hip surgery and the Phillies behind for consistent excellence in Houston. [...]

But the home of the broken toys this year is New York. The Mets handed guaranteed contracts and the fourth and fifth starter jobs to Chris Capuano and Chris Young, a brittle duo that combined for just 45 starts over the past three seasons. [...]

This is part of another rite of baseball in which logic is fleeting. Let's call it March Madness: When the strong spring of a broken toy makes you forget his injured recent past and imagine a successful future.

The Braves have been bitten by this bug in the past, though more on the Garret Anderson side of the ball. It's a good lesson to keep in mind with respect to guys like Chipper Jones and Nate McLouth. Spring optimism aside, we're relying on them a lot this year, and their recent regular season track record has been a fragile one.

Tweet Comment 44 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

And here we are with like 12 pitchers who are, or will be very soon, major league calibur starters.

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Mar 15, 2011 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

I'll

Never give up on Chipper. That dude will bring a professional approach every time he’s able to go to the post. Fingers crossed he can play 120+ games this year.

As for McLouth, I won’t be sold on him until he’s hoisting a division title flag in October

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 15, 2011 10:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Cautiously optimistic

I agree, Gondeee.

While it is nice to see Chipper et al, playing well, this is only spring training. The intensity of meaningful regular season games, full games against major league squads, and the rigors of nonstop baseball will tell us how good we are and whether or not we can sustain it over the entire season.

by aaaaandTheBravesWin on Mar 15, 2011 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

So, if they need starting pitching...

feel free to make an offer for Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 15, 2011 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

I don’t want to give up Lowe

And if we did, what do we spend $15m on that could replace him? Odds that Beachy/Minor/another starter can replicate his success and durability seem low to me

by Bravenewworld2 on Mar 15, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

At this point, Lowe may not be “worth his contract”, but it’s a sunk cost, no one will pick it up in full, and he’s become a key cog in thos staff.

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 15, 2011 11:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Draft picks, international FAs, mid season trades...

or just put towards next year when we’ll need several things.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 15, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

justin loves to post the numbers...

but Kawakami has pitched at a similar level here, although not likely as durable. You’d have a top 3 of Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens. Then you’ve got Kawakami, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Martinez has started some and looked great for us (a Campillo type?), Ortegano, Rodrigo Lopez, Todd Redmond, maybe sign Millwood, Medlen could be back by the end of the year, there’s plenty of options to fill the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, and do it extremely well.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 15, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

5.15 ERA and a 4.35 FIP are not exactly at the same caliber as what we could have in the 4/5 spot…sorry I don’t want KK on the staff. Period.

by TBuzz on Mar 15, 2011 12:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Please dont open that can of worms.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 15, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Can of worms = opened

It’s lovely when people look at just the full season lines from last year. As a point of emphasis, 1 year is almost never a good representation of true talent level. As an Atlanta Brave, he’s posted a 4.32/4.26 ERA and FIP. Again, that’s basically league average over that stretch, and anyone can use a league average starting pitcher. Derek Lowe’s time as a Brave has been very similar-slightly better FIP (around 3.98 without me running the numbers) and an ERA of 4.33 (ERA+ of 93, interestingly).

KK’s season line from last year looks much worse than it actually was, IMHO. I can’t especially disagree with sending him to the ‘pen, since we did have 5 other guys pitching as well or better than he was. But I mean, prior to being sent to the bullpen, he had a 4.48 ERA last year, with an FIP right around 4.00. His 1-10 record was terrible, of course, but again, that’s pretty meaningless in determining how good a pitcher is. After he went down there, he was not used at all for nearly a month. It’s different being a starter than a reliever-you can’t work out extensively any day that there’s a game because you might be called out to pitch that night, and without getting any game action, he can’t have been working out his arm very much.

So after that, his last 5 innings of the year were pretty disastrous. They raised his ERA by over .67, leaving him with that ugly 5.15 ERA mark married to his ugly W/L record. The team destroyed his confidence by refusing to rely on him when Medlen was hurt, instead calling up Mike Minor and demoting KK, and then failing to use him again when Minor’s arm began to fatigue. That may or may not have affected his ability to pitch, but it all conspired to be bomb his trade value. Very terribly series of decisions made by the organization.

by Bronn on Mar 15, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by Braves24 on Mar 15, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

So if Tommy Hanson...

didn’t get absolutely rocked in 4 starts he’d have been in the Cy Young race?

Stats are stats. Just because they support a conclusion that you don’t believe doesn’t make them misleading. Your ability to give up hits, walks, and runs doesn’t change whether you pitch in inning 1 or 8.

“Looks worse than it is”…“not telling the whole story”…“mishandled by the manager”. Horsecrap. If he got guys out consistently he’d be pitching for the big club.

by TBuzz on Mar 15, 2011 11:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Yes, Hanson would have.

And stats are stats? People can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Selectively choose the sample size...

and you too can prove anything!

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 12:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Which is exactly what people are doing by focusing on Kawakami last year...

and not his entire MLB career.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Thats exactly what you did

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 16, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

It's what we all do...

see Nate McClouth and Matt Diaz. It’s funny how some people make generalizations about Nate McClouth based on one season…which was an anomaly versus his entire career. And most people swept Matty Diaz’s performance against Righties under the rug when discussing why FW should spend $2M to keep him.

No one has talked about Lowe’s performance as a Dodger when discussing his overall performance have they?

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

At his age...

his production as a Dodger matters how? He’s not gonna be that pitcher again. Last September gives signs of hope that he can regain his near ace form, but as he’s approaching 40 and having it come several years back, I don’t see how his production as a Dodger gives any indication of what type of pitcher we can expect out of a late 30s Lowe.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Once again...

selective sample size.

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

In your opinion...

and the same could be said for you making sure to select better seasons when he was much younger and in a different environment (humidty, which Lowe has admitted can greatly effect his grip).

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you missed my point...

Don’t defend KK by breaking out the “well if you took out his relief appearances when he was being mismanaged by Bobby Cox and Frank Wren” then he pitched pretty close to “average” last year. Two things…

1) All stats count. Even the ones you may think are unfair.

2) We are not going to be a playoff club if we have 4.50 ERA and 4.36 FIP (or so) coming out of the 5th spot in the rotation. That’s about 20-25 starts where your offense has to score 4-5 or more runs to win.

We get better production out of that spot with Minor or Beachy…

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 3:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Where to begin...

I’m not the one who argued taking out KK’s late season appearances, that was Bronn. Although to be honest, I do agree that KK’s late season appearances after being wasted beyond belief in the bullpen, aren’t very good gauges of his ability.

I agree on 1, although they may count, some also must be taken with a grain of salt due to extenuating circumstances, such as win totals for pitchers like Felix Hernandez, Alex Gonzalez’ arrival with 17 HR and a .316 OBP the year before while with Boston, etc.

And 2, if you believe a team with a 4.50 ERA and 4.36 FIP in their rotation can’t make the playoffs, may I present to you example A, who was a #4 for his team. Or perhaps just look at Kawakami, who had “about 20 starts” for us just last year, and we made the playoffs now didn’t we?

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade our bullpen...

with Philly’s last year…and I doubt we win 80 games.

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 5:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Swap Kawakami's run support with Lowe's...

and I doubt he has that pitiful record. Although I fail to see your point. We had our bullpen, and Phily had theirs, so it’s a bs assertion. Plus, we look to have a solid bullpen again this year, potentially even better than last year if Wagner returns mid season (why else has he not turned in retirement paper work unless he wasn’t mulling over such a possibility).

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

And back on point, the guy asked who could replicate his success...

justin has the long list of #s, but over their two years as Braves, Kawakami and Lowe have posted what would obviously be surprising to you and doughnut, very, very similar #s.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Since the only thing that matters is...

that the Braves paid for both of them at the same time…that’s very relevant.

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 12:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

No numbnuts....

the relative fact is if you take away wins (aka run support which they have little to no control of), Kawakami has essentially replicated Lowe’s success. I still think Lowe is the superior pitcher, and prefer him to KK, but the fact remains that in their time as Braves, KK has replicated Lowe’s production on the mound. His “success” wouldn’t be hard for any of half a dozen other names to replicate, not including Hanson, Hudson, or JJ. Flip run support between Lowe and KK, and people would be singing different tunes on both.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Damn it, relevant, not relative...

damn alcoholic fingers.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I was agreeing with you…in their time as Braves…

by TBuzz on Mar 16, 2011 9:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I saw the list a long time ago

I am fully on board with the KK as an average starter thought.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 16, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Kawakami’s numbers wouldn’t look so bad had Bobby pulled him after 80-90 pitches. At the same time, Kawakami’s penchant for a high pitch count is the main cause of his struggles. I recall several games where Kawakami was pitching well, then at some point in the 4th-6th innings he would tire out and leave pitches up in the zone, subsequently giving up hits and runs. He gave up a few leads/ties because of this. He just always seemed to be a 4 or 5 inning pitcher because he couldn’t keep his pitch count down and didn’t have the stamina to throw past 90-100 pitches effectively. Rarely was he an economical pitcher.

by CMassey on Mar 15, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I havent looked at any stats

But I would think 5 innings is fairly typical/acceptable for a fifth starter.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 16, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

A starter going 5 innings is more the minumum of what you want. Ideally you’d want a starter to go at least 6 or 7. If KK were crafty enough to be effective once he was running on fumes it wouldn’t be such an issue. Instead, he leaves pitches up in the zone and gets hammered, leaving the Braves to dig out of a hole. Looking at his career splits as a starter; he’s good innings 1-4 and then it gets ugly from the 5th inning on.

by CMassey on Mar 16, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Look at both seasons, not just last year...

and a 4.35 FIP out of the 4/5 spot is better than the vast majority of other MLB teams get.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions

replicate his success?

what his 4.00+ ERA?

by Braves24 on Mar 15, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Beachy can replicate what Lowe does for an absurd amount less than him. The problem would come when injuries occur to the rotation and Lopez would be forced to start. If the Braves were in this situation pre-2007, they trade him during the winter. Since all those injuries happened that year they realized the importance of depth.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Mar 16, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Why would it have to be Lopez?

If Lowe were gone, with Kawakami still around, they might give him a chance to prove himself and regain trade value. Perhaps injuries don’t occur until Medlen is ready, or Teheran, or Delgado. Perhaps Redmond comes out strong, or Ortegano. If we dealt Lowe, perhaps we’d bring back Millwood on the cheap, and he could have a little bounce back to his form from as recent as 2009. I’d take the savings, and think we could figure out the rotation.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I would be fine with Kawakami throwing again, but it seems the Braves are pretty intent on moving him somewhere. That would also probably be different if they got rid of Lowe though so you’re right.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Mar 16, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Since he's still here...

they may be intent on moving him, but clearly not enough to you know, actually move him yet.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

The Braves

have been guilty of doing this quite a bit in the past. Picking up players that Bobby always wanted but couldn’t get until they were towards the end of their career. I was shaking my head when they acquired Wagner. I ate crow on that one, but it doesn’t always work out that way. The Braves have always had a great farm system, and I didnt always understand why they would sign washed up players when they could have brought up a young guy who looked good at the AAA level. Its probably a good thing I am not the GM. It is so much easier to second guess someone than to have to make the decision yourself.

by HeyMikey on Mar 15, 2011 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

Its probably a good thing I am not the GM. It is so much easier to second guess someone than to have to make the decision yourself.

Something all of us should say to ourselves every now and then.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 15, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

We're relying on McLouth more than Chipper, I think

We can always move Prado to cover third if we need to, but that only stretches our resources even more in the OF, to the point that McLouth almost has to contribute if Chipper isn’t in the line-up.

I’m okay with it, if we can get even the 2009 version of McLouth back. There’s no nagging health issues there, and I don’t think he completely lost the ability to hit major league pitching.

by Bronn on Mar 15, 2011 8:53 PM EDT reply actions