Top-5 Off-Season Questions For The Atlanta Braves: #3
by gondeee on Oct 11, 2011 11:11 AM EDT
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This is part three of a five part series of posts that will examine the most pressing questions for the Atlanta Braves this off-season.
Question Three: Where can the Braves add more offense?
When I look around the diamond at the Braves offense there are really only two spots where I believe the team can add offense. The first most obvious spot is shortstop. Alex Gonzalez was the worst everyday hitter on the team last year with a season OPS of .642, which was made to look that good only by his September to remember. Sea Bass had a remarkable 1.018 OPS in September ... but put up a number almost half of that (.597) the rest of the year.
Gonzalez could be brought back for his terrific defense, though he should not be counted on for anything more than a sub-.600 OPS -- don't let one strong month lull you into thinking that can be repeated for an entire season ... we'll call that the Derek-Lowe-rule. Lesson learned.
Some folks think the answer at shortstop lies within the organization, with rookie Tyler Pastornicky, who had a one-game cup of coffee last year in Atlanta. He put up impressive numbers across the upper minors in 2011, but scouts are split on whether he could be an everyday shortstop or just a really good utility player. While the Braves could re-sign Gonzo as a bridge to Pastornicky, with the intention of working the kid in during the season, Pastornicky himself would likely only be a bridge to another young Braves prospect, Andrelton Simmons.
Any of those three options would be weak offensive options for 2012, but the days of a shortstop being counted on as a cog in a team's offensive machine may be coming to an end. There are some second division shortstops who could be available on the trade front, but many of them come with the Nate McLouth low expectations warning.
The best the Braves can hope for is a shortstop who can deliver solid defense, and won't do too much harm in the lineup. Gonzalez accomplished the first part of that equation last year, but failed for much of the year on the second part. The Braves aren't going to commit the many millions over many years that it would take to sign Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, so it seems the only answer at short for Atlanta will be another roll of the dice on an all-glove-no-hit short-term shortstop. Check that position off the list of where the team can get more offense.
In my book that leaves only one position, left field. Some may argue that right field should be a place to look for more offense too (maybe even the Braves front office, as Wren alluded too last week), but the team needs to stick with Jason Heyward in right. By either measure of WAR, Jason Heyward had the third-highest mark in that department last year. Much of that was because of his great defense, but even at the plate Heyward was better than the everyday player in left field.
Left field is where the Braves need to look to add offense. I like Martin Prado. I root for him. I like his grit and his facial expressions, which convey to me that he's really trying hard. But a Martin Prado who is not getting base hits is almost worthless at the plate as a left fielder. Yes, the staph infection probably hurt his production last year, but there's been a sentiment around the choposphere that Prado was hitting on borrowed time for the last couple of years. I like him as a member of the team, just not as an everyday player (unless he's in the midst of a Constanza-esque hot streak).
Prado could be a valuable player on the Braves as someone who fills in for Chipper, Uggla, and Freeman from time to time, as well as playing some left field. I just want a player who can produce more offensive production on a regular basis in left field. (Easier said than done, right?) It probably won't be popular to relegate Prado, but when I look around the diamond the only place I can see where an offensive upgrade would be possible is left field.
The Braves don't have any players in their system who would be ready to step in any time soon, so trading for a longer term solution in left would be worth giving up key players or prospects. As I mentioned yesterday when talking about the surplus of starting pitching on the team, the Braves have room to part with a very good starting pitcher, and one of the pieces they should look to get back in return is a left fielder that the team could control for several years.
Maybe I'm reaching too much. Maybe I'm just rosterbating aimlessly. Maybe the Braves already have enough offense, they just have to make sure everyone doesn't slump at one time like they did last month. Still, I'd like to see one more dynamic hitter added to the offense this off-season, and the team has the pitching to trade to make it happen.
In the comments, tell us which outfielder you think the Braves could realistically trade for this off-season.
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Before this year I wanted Mike Morse, too bad that didn’t happen. But the Braves may need to get creative and find someone who could be poised to be the next breakout player like Morse was in 2011.
I still think the trade target is SS above LF...
there’s a handful of FA options for LF, like Willingham.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I think you have two options:
a) Package together Hanson or JJ + maybe someone else for a true star OF, or maybe even both and get a superstar LF.
b) 2-yr deal on Beltran. Anything over 2-yrs for Beltran is crazy.
exactly my thoughts
We need to put Prado in more of a utility role even if he doesnt start as much and we need a LF who can produce, if not that then Reyes or Rollins
Possibly packaging Hanson and JJ for a true star OF? Sorry man, but it better be freaking Ryan Braun. And even then, Hanson has Ace material if he can stay healthy. We would be pretty much relying on this rotation: Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Medlen. I like Medlen more out of the pen to go 1-3 innings, big time valuable. That’s not a bad rotation, just very young.
braves#1
He said or, not and
Hanson or JJ, not Hanson and JJ.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
“or maybe even both”
That is what he said. Maybe I misunderstood, but the “or maybe even both” got me thinking he meant Hanson and JJ.
braves#1
I missed that
But the list I trade both for is rather short, and the other team is adding value too.
That’s not happening though.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If Braun took Hanson and JJ, I’d do it.
It would improve the team, even if it would be a slight overpay.
There’s no way the Brewers lose Braun and Fielder in the same offseason. Milwaukee would burn to the ground.
by dutchschultz on Oct 11, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
They’d lose their offense, but gain good starting pitching. They could always try to re-sign Fielder also.
brewers SP is already good
Grienke, gallardo, marcum…
But Greinke, Gallardo, Hanson, Marcum, JJ is better. Wayyyyy better.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
The Brewers got Greinke and Marcum for less than Braun last season, so I don’t think Hanson and JJ are going to match that in terms of value. Hanson has an extra year, I suppose, but Braun is signed to an incredible deal, short-term, and the long-term deal isn’t horrible if he can continue to produce. He’s also got trade protection, so it’s a moot point all-around.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I didn’t say we would do it. I was replying to Broccoman. I was just saying about the only corner OF that I MIGHT would deal them for is Ryan Braun. I know they aren’t going to trade Braun, and honestly I don’t think we should deal Hanson AND Jurrjens for one player, no matter how great the player is. I even talked about the SP and it would overall hurt us.
braves#1
Josh Hamilton?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
High risk/high reward has always kind of been the Braves way though.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think our OF is on the trade market
Although I do think its worth noting that the White Sox are going young and we’ve had interest in Quentin in the past.
No, I think our OF is sitting in free agency and is a guy we’ve been linked to for years. Of course I’m talking about Josh Willingham. Given that he’s somewhat injury prone, the overall value if his contract should be low compared to other OF bats and he would bring a career .836 OPS with 25 HR power to the middle of the order.
Sign Willingham and put Prado in the DeRosa role.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
I like
Cheap and could be very successful if Josh stays healthy.
Jeff Franceour
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
would cause quite a fan base
braves nation would be excited for a redemption of the homegrown talent but what happens when he starts K’ing like we are used to..
and nobody would score on a hit to left field.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Do you think he'd scratch his head wondering what this meant up there?
Jeff Francouer
OBP .040
doh!
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Sea Bass was that good on defense
Yes he’s old and should get worse, but Gonzalez has a slightly higher BWARP than Chipper and was third best on the Braves. Yet the poor defensive Chipper was the team MVP some lazy writers.
Keep Alex at least for another year as a starter.
agree
I’ll take a gold glove SS like he should be as the 8th hitter. Just hope he finds his stroke. He will only be back for one year. Then we will see if pastronicky is ready.
Oh, I hope not. I can’t stand the thought of Sea Bass hopelessly flailing away after a pitcher has just walked two straight hitters. It is not acceptable to have an every day starting player with an OBP of .270. There is no amount of defense that will make up for that much futility.
by FourScore199 on Oct 11, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Ozzie Smith.
And he did have one season with a .260 OBP, lol.
Agreed that Sea Bass is worth his glove
The problem is Frediot batting him second. Gonzo should only be freed from the #8 spot against LHP and then only advisedly.
His defense is worth his roster spot. He also seemed to wear down, so he needs to split time with someone Pastornicky or a Wilson-type backup.
Spon on...
The Braves don’t have enough offense. September was catastrophic, but the rest of the season was awful.
It’s apparently that Heyward was never 100% throughout the season. Getting an MRI is proof of that. The question with Heyward is can he get healthy? He’s played two season and been relatively healthy for two months. Counting on him to contribute significantly is a bit of a stretch right now.
We have to have a proven LF bat or we’re in danger of repeating 2011.
Twitter:ChopAttack
Best case scenario
1. Replace our SS
2. Trade for someone who can play 3B WELL and LF. Keep Prado on the bench or use for platoon situations. If Chipper gets hurt, Prado can then move to LF.
Easier said than done.
Whereas people in the South are all ignorant, uneducated rednecks, everyone in Philadelphia is very sophisticated and exceedingly intelligent. It is not known exactly how such extraordinary genes came together in this one location.
-- Unknown
Who???
Who is out there that can play LF and be better offensively who is under control for 3+ years?
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 11, 2011 12:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This guy
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=460086
Ladies and gents, Alex Gordon
you could release/trade Prado and then sign a DeRosa type to fill in as Chipper/Freeman sub or another OF with Gordon sliding to 3rd if/when Chipper takes a day/week off.
Why would you get rid of Prado
To sign somebody to do what he excels at?
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
DeRosa too old
DeRosa is aging and gets injuried too much. Prado is an upgrade over him.
Looking exclusively at hitting...
…(and we can’t really compare defense because of different positions played), Alex Gordon has a career wOBA of .341 and Martin Prado has a career wOBA of .337. Some upgrade. Whoops, I forgot, nobody here apparently can remember anything before 2011.
Playing devil's advocate...
But we can look at Gordon’s year as the break-out season for a former top prospect.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It's true though
Prado should be better in 2012 than he was in 2011. I’m not sure we can afford both a LF and him on the bench, unless we can trade for a young, cheap SS. JJ and Hanson for Starlin Castro?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
JJ OR Hanson, not and
Don’t think cubs are willing to trade him considering he is about their only good young player. Also I do not like the idea of trading 2 of our starting SP. That leaves way too many young SP in our rotation. Yes they are good but they are not matured yet.
Lowe does not belong in our rotation
Wren has even said he is not in our rotation. PLus, We are not a better team without Hanson and JJ…
Fine then, ....
how about JJ, Hanson, Lowe, and Pastornicky for Starlin Castro, Jeff Smardzija, Carlos Zambrano, and $8m. We get a long term option at SS, a needed power RH reliever to go in to a set up role before O’Ventrbil, and a veteran arm with plenty of talent in Zambrano (with money to offset the cost of taking on crazy). We can even resign Sea Bass to backup Castro, and use him and Prado as fellow Venezuelans to keep Zambrano calm. If only we could get them to throw in Alphonso Soriano (+ like $30m to offset his extreme cost) too, that’d fix all our needs in a single move!
http://sportsandgrits.com/
zambrano
hell no, i would never take that head case on the braves. Nor would the braves organization. Braves players don’t abandon their teammates.
We do not need to trade for a bullpen arm.
Soriano is not going to help our team. He Ks which we do too much and doesn’t exactly get on base alot. Thats a huge win for the cubs.
But you forget.
If he’s on the Braves he doesn’t have to FACE the Braves.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Zambrano is a cancer. He has blown up many times other than the one time he blew up against the braves this year. He is not a braves organization player. Zero chance he is a brave.
You're ignoring the calming effect some
fellow countrymen like Prado could have on him.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Hmm. Interesting thought. On the other hand, I’m not sure it’s fair to put that burden on Prado’s back — he’s doing enough for the team already.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Hint...
sarcasm font doesn’t always come through. At least cave caught I was joking though.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Ouch
sorry.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
You're good
I thought Zambrano would be obvious enough, no one is touching him. Adding Soriano just would be over the top. To be honest though, Prado probably could help a bit, but as crazy as he is, no one is keep Z in check.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I do appreciate the humor, Mr. Sanchez.
And of course the Cubs would throw in Soriano and $30 million; hell, they would throw that in any deal. In fact, with Soriano and what you suggest, they would probably even do the deal, even though Castro is probably otherwise untouchable.
The rub, of course, is that we are giving up Hanson, JJ, and Pastornicky for Castro, a guy who would never make our rotation (and we would probably release), a decent middle reliever who gets more press than he should b/c he was Notre Dame’s tight end, and a fourth OF (Prado is better than Soriano and should play over him) and we take on $19 million in salary for the privilege of doing that. (Even with them kicking in $38 million and taking all of Lowe’s $15 million, we are taking on $72 million in Zambrano and Soriano.) Pass. Really fast.
Gordon career OPS is .777, Prado’s is .775… Why would you trade for what you already have?
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 11, 2011 12:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Prado is getting more expensive and Gordon’s stats weren’t inflated by a high BABIP. He’s a former #1 prospect and has always had the talent/skills, just hasn’t put them together until this past season. It’s a chance, obviously, but I was just throwing something out there that was semi-reasonable.
You understand he also might regress to his past numbers
with this year being a fluke/outlier, right?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Except Prado...
had a pretty strong May extending in to June, and has the almost obvious reason for the change as the staph infection and lingering effects of it. Aside from the suspect “he figured something out”, what changed for Gordon from his bad to good? At his age, it’s a little late for finally “breaking out”, although that is certainly possible he’s pulling a Werth.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Gordon had a .358 BABIP last season. That’s incredibly inflated. Check your fax.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Just to emphasize...
I went back to 1951 and tried to find who has a career BABIP higher than that mark.
Austin Jackson in a two-year sample size. Rod Carew.
That’s it.
Gordon’s likely to regress quite a bit from that.
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I think you meant to say
ZOMGZ ALEX GORDON IS THE NEXT ROD CAREW TRADE FOR HIM NOW
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
True, but there are 5 active players with at least 2000 PA that are over .350
Jeter, Choo, Votto, Kemp, and Suzuki
Not saying that Gordon will stay in the .350 range, but its certainly not outside the realm of possibility. The main things with Gordon is whether he can maintain the new found power. If he keeps his BB%, K%, and ISO constant, even a regression in BABIP towards his career mark would still make him a very valuable player.
Absolutely.
I’m not saying he’s a fluke. In fact, I’m one of his biggest fans, having covered the Cornhuskers for a local newspaper while he was a member of the team.
That said, the BABIP is fairly extreme and should not be expected to continue moving forward. I did a study on it awhile back, and it had been done 72 times in the past five years. 56 players achieved the feat, with 14 (25%) doing it twice and 2 (3.5%, Ichiro and Michael Young, if I remember right) doing it three times. No one was able to replicate the feat four or five times in a five-year window.
A couple people (Kemp and Votto, if I remember correctly) were close to three…Kemp played more than half the games in five seasons, Votto almost pulled three in four years.
That said, we’re now looking at 4 guys out of 240 starting position players (30 teams, 8 positions/team, < 2% accomplish rate) in the league accomplishing the feat with regularity close to half. Granted, there are players that haven’t played five years or players that retired prior to 2011 in there, but those guys generally weren’t the ones accomplishing the feat even twice.
And, FWIW, Gordon’s done it once – he’s not a repeat guy thus far. It’s unlikely that he’s a member of the 6% of position players that can repeat even once.
All this said, I absolutely loved the guy coming out of college and I’d love the Braves to get him someday…I just don’t know that doing it now is the right time. I was calling for him as a possibility all last year and perhaps the offseason before.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Won't happen...
… because he doesn’t have to listen to Larry “Swing at anything that’s close!” Parrish anymore.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Left field is the most logical place for an offensive upgrade, but I still feel for Prado. I would love to see him shine in the super-utility role again, but I know I’d start to be bitter towards the team if I was moved around to a different position one year and then back to a utility role after a bad season (which was a good season for him till the staph).
Course, Prado is the consummate professional, but Wren needs to throw Prado the proverbial bone (or two). Prado as the 3B-in-waiting for when (or if) Chipper retires and until then, he’s giving breaks to FF, Chipper, Uggs, whoever is in LF, etc, would be ideal (to me).
That, or Wren surprises us with a shiny new SS.
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
Prado will start at least 50 games
No way will Chipper start more than 100 games. Possibly a lot less. Prado will get his innings. And after next year, he’s the full time starting 3B.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Chipper has played in less than 100 games...
…a grand total of once in his career—-in 2010. Last year he played in 126 games, starting in 114 of them.
Thank you for pointing that out.
A lot of less educated fans assume Chipper plays like 60-80 games a year. I had a guy come in the store once during this last year that said Chipper had “Never played 100 games in a season since 2000.”
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 12, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The trend is downwards
Last year was the anomaly… Chipper hasn’t appeared in 150+ games since 2003. Further, in the games he has appeared in over the past few years, he hasn’t been as effective as he used to be. He used to routinely have 600+ plate appearances, OBP of over .400, and slugging of over 500, but he hasn’t hit any of those marks since 2008.
Chipper isn’t the player he was 10 years ago. He isn’t going to carry the team on his back anymore. I’ll repeat what I said: I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he starts 100 games. I think he’ll appear in about 115 games overall, and 20 of those will be just pinch hitting or DH.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Prado's 2011 was more of an aberration I think...
How much do you think an everyday LFer with a career OPS of .775 cost? Probably a slot more than $4MM-$5MM like Prado will get in Arb. I say get rid of Diaz, and instead bring in a Cuddyer/Willingham type to back up RF and LF.
Then you move Prado to 3B in 2013, and then you go after your stud LF if there are no internal options (like Terdoslavich or something).
by TBuzz on Oct 11, 2011 12:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Changes
First off, with SS I would sign a 1 year guy. Gonzo does play good defense, but he would be my 3rd option. My first would be Marco Scutaro. There’s a chance the Red Sox don’t pick up his option. He is a solid hitter. After Scutaro, I would try to get Jamey Carroll. More of a utility guy, but he played SS for most of the season last year for the Dodgers. Then Gonzo would be my third option. If Pastornicky is still hitting well by June, you can bring him up and move one of those guys to the utility IF role.
***Keep in mind Reyes and Rollins will be too expensive.
Second, I would try to add a bat in LF. I am a huge Prado fan, but I think we should move him back to his super utility role this season. He will still get a lot of time seeing how Chipper and Heyward are always hurt. If we bring in a bat to play LF, Prado could fill in some for Chipper at 3B and the new LF could slide over to RF when Heyward is hurt. Maybe the new LF is a FA, maybe he is a piece that comes over in a trade with Jurrjens or Hanson (I highly doubt we get anything valuable in the Lowe trade).
FA LF’s:
Josh Willingham
Carlos Beltran (likely too expensive)
David DeJesus
Cody Ross (I see as more of a 4th OF)
Grady Sizemore (huge risk/reward)
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Ludwick (no thanks)
Nick Swisher (if Yankees don’t pick up his option)
Trade Candidates:
Carlos Quentin
Nelson Cruz
Delmon Young
BJ Upton
If I had to guess, the Braves would be most likely to make a trade for Quentin, who they kicked the tires with the White Sox last year. He does seem to miss some time each year, but with a guy like Prado on the team it won’t be that big of a deal.
1. CF Bourn
2. SS Scutaro/Carroll
3. 3B Jones
4. C McCann
5. 1B Freeman
6. 2B Uggla
7. LF Quentin
8. RF Heyward
C Ross
UT Hinske
UT Prado
IF Wilson/Hicks/other FA utility IF
OF Constanza or Diaz(may not have room for Diaz this year)
Wren needs to get Constanza off this team this offseason.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Selling high
I like it, but the only way the Braves would trade him is if he was coupled with a higher-caliber guy (say, Jurrjens)
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Oct 11, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Diaz is under contract next season, he’s not going anywhere.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but...
If the Braves go out and get a right handed hitting LF, I don’t see Diaz having a spot.
Ross, Hinske, IF that can play SS are a lock to make the team. If Prado isn’t traded, he stays on as the super utility guy. That leaves one spot and it will likely be a 4th OF that can play CF. Right now Constanza is the best in-house option. You could also sign a guy like Cody Ross.
Um, they will keep Diaz over Constanza. Constanza will be back in AAA where he belongs.
by FourScore199 on Oct 11, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no chance...
That Scutaro’s option does not get picked up.
None.
I’ll say it one more time.
None.
He’s got a $1.5MM buyout on a $6MM contract, of which he clearly exceeds the value in terms of performance.
Even if the Red Sox go out and sign Jose Reyes AND Jimmy Rollins, they’ll pick up the option simply because they can deal him elsewhere.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I liked your minimalist ideas in the other thread...
…but I don’t get your ideas here. As someone else noted, Scutaro’s option will get picked up, so we would have to give up something for him. I am not sure I get your Jamey Carroll love, either. He is old, making him a candidate for a drop-off in production, and while he is a decent contact hitter, he is hardly a great hitter, and his SS defense is slightly below average. I guess he is okay, but if you are going to pick up a singles hitting SS, why not get one with a good glove?
I really don’t get most of the LF candidates you mention. The Yankees will keep Swisher. Willingham can hit, but he is often injured and his defense is so bad that he was barely more valuable than Prado last year—-and that was Prado’s worst season and Willingham’s best. Beltran costs too much, as you note. Cuddyer is like Willingham, but less. His bat varies, and his career wOBA is barely better than Prado. His OF defense is also horrible. Sizemore is probably a lost cause. The rest of the free agent OF’s you mention are quite obviously worse than Prado, so what’s the point.
I don’t understand the trade candidates either. Quentin is a slightly worse version of Willingham—good power and patience, poor contact, and abysmal defense. Nellie Cruz isn’t going anywhere. Upton is about the same defensively and offensively as Prado. I guess he gives you a little more speed, but I am not sure why we would want to pay him $10 million or so and give players to the Rays for getting just about the same as we already have. And Delmon Young is bad defensively, and worse offensively than Prado but any reasonable measurable standard.
In essence, you have made the best case I have seen for keeping Prado in left: you mention all the reasonable free agent and trade possibilities (barring some big trade for someone who does not appear to be on the market) and Prado is not noticably worse than any of them. So why pay big bucks or give up players for something that isn’t even an upgrade?
Finally, the batting order you suggest has a serious flaw. You don’t bat your worst hitter second. That’s just silly.
So am I correctly gauging Gondeee's projection for our best positional prospects...
SS – Andrelton Simmons
3B – Edward Salcedo/Brandon Drury
CF – Matt Lipka
And the other positions would be…
LF – Joey Terdoslavich (could back up 1B as well)
C – Christian Bethancourt (obviously)
Pretty good
I’d put Todd Cunningham and/or Mycal Jones ahead of Lipka right now in center. Also, Salcedo may end up in LF eventually.
Sure, not certain if you meant top positional prospect or next one thru the pipeline.
I like Myke Jones as a possible Omar infante type player, I hope be gets to Gwinnett sometime in 2012 and excels.
by TBuzz on Oct 11, 2011 1:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Logan Morrison for JJ. We just have to convince them that they need another pitcher.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
Might work anyway since Loria and LoMo haven’t been getting along. He strikes me as another Jason Heyward – great raw, somewhat-untapped talent… but yet another Lefty… dang.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I don't think Morrison...
…has anywhere near the upside of Heyward. His power potential is limited and he really can only play first base (even though Florida has tried to stick him in left b/c of Sanchez). Total package-wise, Prado is easily the better option in left.
True, he’s not Stanton – but 23 homers at age 23/4 is pretty good. Nonetheless – we can’t possibly field a team with 5 Lefty regulars. I would prefer guys who are hitting for average… we have sluggers.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I don't give a damn about a player's average
What we need is people capable of getting on base. Some of that will be resolved by not having the entire team’s BB% drop, but we need someone who’s value isn’t tied up in his batting average.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, I’ll clarify — because I like OBP, personally. Right now we pretty much have one table-setter in Bourn. With a LoMo, Prado sits and we add a guy who wouldn’t be my ideal choice for a #2 guy who would probably have to be a #2.
When I look at “average” hitters, I’m thinking guys who can handle the bat well situationally. That had been Odarp in 2010… not so much last year. I think we need a really good #2 (and maybe Martin is it)… but not really another 4-7 hole hitter… we have 4 of those already.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Don't take that into consideration
You get the best hitters you can find and make them fit. Ignore terms like table setter and run producer and just get guys that get on base and hit for power and everything will work out fine.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, he won’t be as good as Heyward, but he’ll still be pretty good. I would rather have LoMo in the outfield with Prado as a super utility guy than have Prado in left with several pitchers gathering dust.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Oct 11, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I forget to mention that above. I say we give Loria a chance to get in the last word and ship him off…to us. In return he gets a top flight pitcher. It seems to help out both parties.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Oct 11, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
His splits against lefties are fine though, so that’s not really a problem.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah if he can hit above .250. Of course, he’d fit right in, then.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
But LoMo’s career OBP against righties is still 340. That’s not terrible at all.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Oct 11, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
True… I still see him as an XBH guy – other thoughts around here notwithstanding. See above about my ‘clarification’, FWIW. Overall, I wouldn’t be unhappy to have him on the team… just not sure about the fit.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Logan Morrison for JJ.
I don’t like the idea of trading .JJ. to a division rival & having to face him.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
You afraid of his 89 fastball?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Our lineup is notorious for flailing away at a Livan Hernandez type of pitcher who, like JJ, mixes speeds, gets great movement on his 2-seam fastball, and has a great sinker.
Except that Livan hasn't really fared well against us
yeah.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Three words
John Freakin Lannon
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
John Lannan
Career:
ERA: 4.00
WHIP: 1.423
K/9: 4.7
K/BB: 1.39
Career against ATL:
ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.522
K/9: 5.9
K/BB: 1.62
SSS, of course, but we hit him a bit more and strike out a bit more. Doesn’t really seem like “flailing away” to me.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I was thinking of last season in particular
ERA: 2.97
WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.9 (24% of all his strikeouts last year were against us)
K/BB: 2.4
There were three other teams that he had more than 15 innings against last year. His ERA against those teams: FLA 4.76, PHI 5.13, PIT 4.26. He’s a junk pitcher with not especially good control, and we made him look like John Smoltz.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
And there were other good pitchers that we made look like John Lannan
it happens.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If memory serves me right
J.J had a pretty good season going before his injury. Pre-All Star ERA was 1.87. Of course no one expects a performance like that to continue all year but it does go to show , when he is healthy & conditions are right, J.J. can be a formidable opponent. We all know what a disaster the second half was for him. A knee injury derailing him. That being said, on the year he still ended up w/a 2.96 ERA. Not too shabby IMO.
His FIP @ 3.99 & WHIP @ 1.22 puts him a little better than MLB average per FanGraphs & his XFIP (4.23) right at MLB average. If he would have stayed healthy all year surely some regression would have taken place (from his pre-all star numbers) but I’m guessing he would’ve still had some above average year end numbers.
Granted he’s no Halladay but he’s far from chopped liver. And since when did you have to have an overwhelming fastball to be a good pitcher.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
When conditions are right
anyone can be a formidable opponent. The question is, what are the conditions, and how sustainable are they?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
So you’re basically afraid of trading a league average pitcher to a rival? And for reference LoMo is 2/5 with a walk against JJ in 6 PAs.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not afraid of trading a league average pitcher to a rival
I don’t think J.J. is league average. I believe his numbers fell to average due to a crappy 2nd half in which his performance was affected by injury. If J.J. would have remained healthy for the year I believe his numbers would have fell in well above average. Of course we’ll never know because he got hurt.
For reference here are some other career #‘s from National East rivals against J.J.
Victorino: 6 for 31. .194 / .265 / .226 / .491
Wright: 6 for 29. .207 / .258 / .414 / .672
Bay: 3 for 15. .200 / .278 / .267 / .544
Reyes: 6 for 24. .250 / .333 / .292 / .625
Werth: 5 for 23. .217 / .333 / .261 / .594
Too be fair, in doing the batter vs pitcher research some guys in the NL East have done well against J.J. (Hanley R., Ryan Zimmerman to name a couple) so this exercise could easily digress to cherry picking. I think J.J. is an above average pitcher. In fact I think he’s pretty good & with the way the Braves were hitting this year they had struggles against average & below average pitchers. I just don’t take J.J. as lightly as you & think he would be a worthy adversary for the Braves to face.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
I am afraid of trading JJ to the Marlins for Morrison because:
1. JJ is better than league average. Yes, the FIP and xFIP aren’t particularly pretty, but I don’t think using xFIP is fair for JJ because he has consistently had low HR rates. I am not sure how he does it, but he has a way of avoiding the HR.
2. Even if we got Morrison, I’d still start Prado in left. He’s a better player. So why give up JJ for a bench guy?
Having both Morrison and Prado is good, IMO. I think there would be pretty big value in having Prado play the super utility role 5 days a week. Also let’s be honest, Chipper is fragile these days. I can’t imagine we get many more than 110 or so games. Having a good player for left field makes spelling Prado a much easier decision.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Oct 12, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t love the idea of ever giving up anyone with talent, but we simply have too much MLB pitching talent anyways. Other people have talked about how JJ may leave anyways too. I would at least like to get a young quality hitter in return.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Oct 11, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Lowe to the Astros for Carlos Lee. Straight up. We have no room for Lowe or his 15 mil. salary. Lee is due 1 year 18.5 mil.
Sure, Carlos is terrible defensively in left, but he can still hit. .275/.342/.446/.788 w/ 18 HR’s and 94 RBI. And, he crushed LHP to a tune of .348/.413/.615/1.028
Astros aren’t going to win anytime soon so they may bite to clear the extra 3.5 mil off the books.
This is the first idea that I have simultaneous hated and agreed with at the same time.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
+1
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Carlos Lee...
…owns a ranch outside Houston, loves living and playing there, and has a full no-trade clause (and is 10-5 anyway). He’s not going anywhere.
Michael Bourn is a Houston native, yet the Braves pried him away.
It’s not impossible.
Twitter: @TAlmeyda
Just because it can be done.
Doesn’t mean it should be done.
by TBuzz on Oct 11, 2011 1:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bourn would play Left Center field and the SS-TBNL would play “rover”. That oughta cover it. I’d love his bat; I’d hate his glove.
But man — talk about a team built for the solo homer.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
But it's not impossible because of what you say...
it’s impossible because of what Lee says, and that’s been repeatedly that he’s not waiving his no trade clause.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Derek Lee always said he wouldn’t waive his no-trade. It’s always possible for a player to change their mind.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Especially if Zambrano is on your team
Lee probably changed his mind so he could seek refuge from all the flying objects in the dugout.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
by adc62 on Oct 11, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
She also told me don't be a fool
the man keeps saying no for a reason. The man has publicly said countless times that he will not waive his no trade clause for a reason.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
True, but...
Right now, he’s basically looking at spending the rest of his career with a rebuilding team. If Wren’s guys went to him and said, “Look, here’s your chance to earn a ring before you retire”, he might listen to that.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
IIRC...
…he has one year left on his contract. Houston isn’t bringing him back after that. He likes playing at home. It happens. And honestly, why would we even want him? His defense is bad, and he isn’t a better hitter than Prado anymore. I don’t get this at all.
Bourn didn't have a NTC though
Lee does and has said he won’t waive it.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 11, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Except he never said I ain't leaving...
Lee has done so multiple times, and vetoed at least one trade if not multiple.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
He seems to veto a deal/year, on average.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
The shocking thing about that is
someone is trading FOR him about once per year.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Depends on if he has any interest in contending for a WS ring or not. He could just as easily re-sign with the Stros after the season.
No, he couldn't.
Houston won’t want him back after his contract is finished. He’s out of Houston after next year anyway.
I'd think he retires all together after the year....
or at most, signs a 1 yr, incentive laden deal to play for the Rangers.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
But we will bring him up ALL OFF SEASON
along with several other unrealistic, not available options.
The real player we need to target is Matt Kemp. Have you heard about the Dodgers’ financial issues? A package with JJ and Prado might be able to snag him.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
But when we sign Reyes and Rollins
how are we going to have money left over for Kemp?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
FW
Is going to be playing Powerball & Mega Millions a lot over the wnter
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
Altho Id love for this to happen
It never will…
The dodgers would be dumb to trade thier franchise hitter esp right now.
Yeah
It would be so hard to get an aging star to leave the worst team in baseball to go to a contender on a 1 year contract…
Carlos Lee is a star
in fantasy baseball.
Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 11, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The Definitive "Carlos Lee is Going Nowhere" Argument...
Courtesy of MLBTR:
Astros owner Drayton McLane is expected to complete the sale of the team to Jim Crane in mid-November, according to Peter Gammons of MLB Network (on Twitter). The arrangement would move Houston to the American League West and even MLB into two leagues of 15 teams.This sounds a lot like “for the 2012 Season” — a shocker — but that also makes Carlos Lee a full-time Designated Hitter.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
For the record...
I’m still looking for anything to suggest that this is a 2012 or 2013 move. That wasn’t part of the rumor yet.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Lowe to the Astros
for a moldy bag of batting practice baseballs would be acceptable
"prado was hitting on borrowed time the last couple of years"
Flat out, anyone who thinks that is an idiot.
You don’t dumb-luck your way into being your teams most consistent hitter for 2.5 seasons. Last season was clearly the anomaly in his track record.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Well,
until he can learn an approach at the plate, he’ll have rely on a high BABIP to have any offensive value.
"If you go out to a bar, pick up a chick, take her home, but can't close the deal, we used to call that "Calling Dan Kolb in for relief."-Talking Head
BABIP isn't totally accidental
the fact that he sustained his high BABIP for so long makes me think that relying on it isn’t so much of a problem.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Yea, that's true.
Relying on it isn’t a problem, but when it doesn’t swing his way, he doesn’t have a decent OBP to fall back on. Any semblance of an approach from him would go a long way.
"If you go out to a bar, pick up a chick, take her home, but can't close the deal, we used to call that "Calling Dan Kolb in for relief."-Talking Head
Totally agreed
There’s room for improvement, I just don’t think it’s fair to say that he’s due to suck because of his reliance on a decent BABIP in recent years.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Yeah because his patience at the plate was amazing before this year… oh wait. A guy who doesn’t hit for much power or take walks is going to be a major liability when the hits don’t fall. He should be better, but its also quite likely we never see what we saw before.
Is it documented that all hitters hover around a league-mean BABIP? I keep hearing that how a hitter performs AA and above is generally an indication of who they are?
I don't know about the last bit, but
to an extent, your BABIP is influenced by your swing. That is, really high BABIPs are suspect, but you can be above-average consistently as an aspect of the way you hit you ball (a lot of line drives and not too many fly balls, basically).
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I think Martin’s problem is what hampered the entire offense. We absolutely didn’t work the count at all. Check out this difference in Pitches per PA from 2010 to 2011…
Dan Uggla: 4.19 / 3.88
Jason Heyward: 4.13 / 3.92
Brian McCann: 4.00 / 3.92
Martin Prado: 3.94 / 3.74
Chipper Jones: 3.82 / 3.60
Now, a major factor in this decline might be an expanding strike zone, but not likely. Guys like Kevin Youkilis and Brett Gardner were in the top-10 in both 2010 and 2011. This is all about philosophy, so I hope we go back to 2010’s attitude.
It's a repeatable skill, to a degree...
I mean, there’s still a ton of random things a batter cannot control, but batters have shown the ability to continually post better than league-average BABIPs. A lot of that is controlled by LD%, but fast runners tend to have BABIPs that favor some groundball action as well. FB, obviously tend to be the lowest percentage for improving BABIP.
League-average does tend to fall around .300, but can obviously vary because so much random, unmeasurable considerations exist within the field of play.
All this said, anything beyond .350 is bound to regress to the mean. A more accepted high-end “true talent” level of BABIP, i.e. something that is considered repeatable as a skill, would probably fall between .330 and .340. There are only nine career BABIPs of greater than .350, and half of those are ongoing, quite likely to regress…namely Austin Jackson, in my estimation. Perhaps Votto and Kemp…I think Jeter and Suzuki have played long enough to keep theirs afloat, unless they take a drastic turn for the worse for a couple years.
In the end, there’s just too much unmeasurable characteristics to view BABIP as a totally measurably repeatable skill. It doesn’t become a stable stat at any amount of PA. At least at this point…at some point, I imagine there will be a Hit F/X like Pitch F/X and we may be able to learn more about it in some predictive fashion. Or we might not…maybe it is truly entirely too random to account for.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
ATLtruth--why?
Prado’s BABIP was not unsustainably high in 2009 or 2010 (it was .331 and .335). He’s just a good hitter outside of the end of last year when something was just wrong. It would be nice if he had more patience, but he’s still not bad at the plate. BABIP for a hitter is not like it is for a pitcher. It can be sustained. And he has 15 HR power or so and great gap power (38 and 40 2B in 2009 and 2010), so to think he cannot return to his past levels seems a bit silly.
Trade JJ for a good left fielder or trade JJ and Heyward for 2 good outfielders. I am not sure about JH at all—and then sign Reyes for 5 years. If we have the money to sign a player like D-Lowe then why cant we sign a top notch player like Reyes. We will be saving $6-7 million on KK’s contract-saving. Give someone Lowe and eat half of his contract. If we can eat $7 million on KK we can eat $7-8 for getting rid of Lowe.
wow... where to start....
Between arbitration raises (Bourn, et al), and guaranteed contract raises, the “savings” from KK and Nate will be entirely chewed up… almost to the penny, by my calculations.
And it’s BECAUSE we signed a player like D-Lowe that we don’t have funds to pursue a Reyes or Rollins. Right now, the speculation out there is that we’d have to eat all but a fraction ($2-3m max) of Lowe’s contract to move him.
I would never… ever… no chance possible… sign Reyes for 5 years. No way. No how. He’s that good — but his body isn’t. And it would take ~$100m to do that.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
...
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Oct 11, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Contracts prices for 2012 (speculation)
Bourn: was $4.4m in 2011 (we bought about 1/3rd of that). Estimate $6.5 to $7m via final arbitration yr. (Arb3)
Prado. was $3.1m. Estimate $4m to 4.5m (Arb2)
McCann: $6.67m to $8.67m. Last year of current contract is 2012.
EOF: Arb 2 yr. was $895K… $2mill?
Moylan. Was $2m. May be back if can be held to $2.5m (Arb3)
Jurrjens. Was $3.25m. Arb 3 year… $5m??
McLouth: yeah, he’s off the books… after a $1.25m buyout.
That’s the big ones. And a total of around $13.5m in raises/buyouts just to those guys.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Put down the game controller
seems like only something that could happen on MLB 2K11. I agree with the guy below. Reyes seems to always have a hamstring or calf injury.
haha good one
That joke where people worry about Heyward being a bust always cracks me up. Every dime we save from KK will go towards paying for Bourn next year. between JJ, EOF, and Prado, most of McLouth’s money is spent too. I think the braves would be lucky to get someone to eat 5 mil off D Lowe’s contract. Bottom line, Atlanta has next to no money to spend this offseason. Reyes is a pipe dream people, so let’s set down the pipe and move on.
by OrangeBravo on Oct 11, 2011 5:17 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Do little this year and go big next year.
Sign a vet SS with a nice glove for one year. Let Prado play LF for another year. Sign a utility vet for a year. (Just bring back Alex Gonzalez. Utility – ? Somebody cheap). Gamble next year with the hope that the team offense will be better and hope the starting pitching can stay healthy for the year. Shoot for Wild Card and hope for the best.
In 2013 (baring that all suggested players are available and will not resign with previous teams), Braves should go after two of the following: Josh Hamilton (32), Matt Kemp (28), Andre Ethier (31), Michael Bourn (30), or Carlos Quentin (30).
In 2013, Braves will roughly have about 40 million off the books for sure. Lowe’s 15 million. Chippers 14 mill. The one year SS in 2012 for 3 mill (guess). Matt Diaz for 2. Eric Hinske for 1.4 mill. The other 50 million will be dedicated to resigning arb players, Mac, and Hudson.
by romone_braves91 on Oct 11, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions
Except Bourn. He can resign with us.
by romone_braves91 on Oct 11, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully he re-signs instead
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
JJ and Constanza for Adam Jones and a prospect. Move him to LF and can occasionally spell Bourn in CF when needed.
not sure how much contstanza is worth
A lifelong minor league that hit well for a couple months in the bigs..small sample size
the point
is getting Jones. Constanza is just the small piece in the deal and doesn’t have to be included.
Jones could play all 3 OF spots which would help if Heyward doesn’t make necessary adjustments. I believe his Arb clock is about the same as JJ and makes about the same. He bats RH as well so that’s a plus.
Wonder if we could work something out with the Cubs. Lowe/JJ/Hanson/Pastornicki for Soriano/Castro/Cash?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
The Cubs aren't giving up Castro
Soriano + cash they give to anyone who will make an offer.
I would do Lowe for Soriano and $20-25mil.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Brennan Boesch or Josh Willingham
It’s my understanding both are FA… I like Boesch but he hits from the left side, so I would sign Willingham for 2-3 yrs. Then I would move Prado to a utility position, and then 3B when Chipper retires at the end of the 2012 season. When Prado plays the infield he plays at his best. Our lineup would be awesome for 2013.
As far as SS, I like Gonzo. I think we pick him up for one more year. He’s like Andruw Jones to me. He may not give you many runs on offense but he sure as hell can save runs on defense. I think we bring up Pastornicky as his back-up.
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 11, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions
If Pastornicky is brought up it will be to start, not be the back-up. And that is exactly what I think should happen. No more Alex!!!
by FourScore199 on Oct 11, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
We have no idea how Pastornicky will perform at the major league level. Bringing him up as a backup is a logical move. If we were a rebuilding team it might be a different story.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It is never logical to bring up a young player to sit on the bench. He is only 21 years old. He needs to play every day whether it is at AAA or in the majors. Doing otherwise would hinder his development tremendously.
by FourScore199 on Oct 11, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re overrating TP as a prospect. Nobody, including professional scouts, knows if he’s capable of being an everyday player.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
the way to find out
is not relegating him to the bench.
Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 11, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
For a contending team, that’s a horrible way to find out actually. Not sure why everyone suddenly sees him as a top prospect. I saw him play live and he’s not even that great at SS.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
then start him in GWI. And I’ll put more stock in his impressive hitting record than your opinion of his defense.
Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 11, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Not just my opinion, same from scouts and our prospect guys here on TC.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
His hitting record isn't all that impressive
At least outside a BABIP fueled hot streak to start his time in AAA. He’s a solid prospect that should have a long MLB career at least as a utility type, but if he eventually turns into Omar Infante, that would be a positive outcome for the Braves.
Omar is exactly the comp I was thinking of.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Pastornicky may be better suited for a utility role, but he has hit well enough that we can’t assign him to that role now. Let him hit in AAA, and we’ll see how it goes.
Also, batted ball data seems to justify the BABIP uptick.
Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 11, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
MiLB batted ball data is mostly worthless
And even if it supported the uptick, that doesn’t make it at all sustainable. No one posts BABIPs that high over an extended period of time.
And I never said he should be assigned to a utility role soon. I said he should have a long MLB career at least as a utility type. As in, worst case scenario, he should at least be a solid utility man.
Are you kidding me...
Waht about when we had Renteria and Escobar?? If I remember correctly Escobar was Renteria’s back-up, and that turned out pretty good. With the exception of Escobar’s attitude. why would this be any different?
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 11, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Excuse the typos… I’m at work and I the last thing I need is to get caught on TC.
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 11, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Boesch is an interesting idea
he’s coming into his own.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Oct 12, 2011 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting, but...
…with two years of service time, he is four years away from becoming a free agent, actually five since he didn’t start 2010 in the majors. Why anyone thinks he is a free agent is beyond me—-he isn’t even arbitration eligible yet.
Why Willingham?
His defense is horrible and he has a long injury history. When you combine offense and defense, he is not better than Prado.
According to Olney Votto might be available
Move a few pitchers to Cincy and move Freeman in a seperate deal and you’ve got a middle of the order monster for a few seasons.
TV Journalist Chris Hanson is a cockblocker
I would assume they want way more than we’re willing to pay.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
trade freeman?
No i will take a 1st basemen that had a rookie of the year caliber year at age 22
Heyward analogy
he was 20 last year and now some people want to trade him. some people should take ritalin.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Oct 12, 2011 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions
We could always take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
Down year and injury, so they might want him to build trade value back first, but he would be excellent for us.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
Horrible cost...
In contract and trade.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
he'd be a great fit if Towers wasn't an unreasonable partner
plus, there’s king’s sig as a bonus.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
If the Rangers lose out on CJ Wilson, they would find themselves in need of a pitcher. We have ourselves a lot of pitching depth. If, and only if this happens, because obviously at the worst we are looking at a team that went to consecutive ALCS and obviously wouldn’t be wanting to make any big roster moves to that team, if this happens, I’d like to see us try and construct a JJ for Nelly deal.
Assuming Texas can resign Wilson, and I think they probably will, I think we’ll end up making a push for Josh Willingham, which isn’t great, but its whats out there.
Our offense isn’t going to be anywhere near elite next year, but I think Mac will be healthy and have a good .290-.300/.385 25-30HR type year, and I think Heyward will rebound nicely. I think the biggest area we can hope to improve in is each guy stepping his game up, even if it’s just minimally.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 11, 2011 4:56 PM EDT reply actions
Just expecting our guys to perform up to their abilities...
Where’s the fun in that?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Our offense has a chance to be really good
it just comes with a lot of ifs. If prado can bounce back, if Heyward can rebound and start to develop into the stud that every scout predicted, if mccann can hit like he did for the first 4 months of the year for a full year, if freeman can avoid the sophomore slump and continue to improve, and if Uggla can hit .230 for the first half of the year instead of .173 our lineup could be one of the best in the game. it does take a lot of potential things to work out in our favor, and while it is not likely that all of them come true, there is a solid chance that at least a few of those things happen.
I forgot the best part… new hitting coach. we have the potential, we just need to meet it
Get our prospect back
Elvis Andrus! haha…i wish
Why are so many people quick to say let's trade hanson?
Hanson is a stud. I can understand wanting to trade JJ because I feel his value is near his max right now and he overachieved for most of the year until he got hurt, but Hanson has great stuff. His stuff is better than JJ’s and he should be our ace for the next couple of years. At the All-star break he was 11-4 with a 2.44 ERA and the lowest BA against in the national league. If we must trade some pitching I’d say JJ and Delgado, but I really hope we don’t think about trading hanson or teheran
I think everyone is a bit worried about how his delivery will affect his health in the future.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
But setting aside what happened with his shoulder in the 2d half, he has had no such troubles and to the contrary has been very durable. Or am forgetting something that I should be recalling?
The mechanics of his delivery may look bad, but I’m not so sure that such can be accurately correlated to increased risk of major shoulder blow-outs.
agreed
These ideas of trading Hanson and JJ are ridiculous. Hanson should be our #1 in a couple years.
Sign Josh Willingham for two years with an option for a third, re-sign Alex Gonzalez for one year, call it a day.
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
Winning.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Bourn
Heyward
Chipper
Uggla
McCann
Willingham
Freeman
Gonzalez/Pastornicky
We may set the baseball record for the slowest team in the history of the game, but that lineup could mash. And that’s without Prado, who could easily fill in for Chipper, Willingham, Freeman, Uggla or Heyward.
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Oct 11, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
More consistent, I’d say, and he provides stability.
And Prado would be playing probably 5 games/week for a season average. You have to figure on Chipper sitting for an extended period of time at some point, and 2-3 games/week at other times. There will be stretches where Chipper plays all the time, but they’ll be few and far between. Add in a game/week apiece at 2B and LF, and Prado will have almost as many PAs as any other starter, minus perhaps SS, 1B, and CF.
As much as people say they hate Prado being jerked around the field, you know what?? He seems to play better when moving around a little more. The position he’s played at most in any one season?? Last year in LF (by a tremendously small margin, admittedly). But the percentage of total innings is much higher there than in 2010’s 2B campaign, when he played +100 innings at third as compared to last season.
As small a change in mentality as it might be, maybe spending less time in the outfield thinking about his hitting will lead to him hitting better.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I like Willingham, I’d rather have him and not Diaz. But Diaz is pretty much paid for.
I think you send a terrible message to Prado by saying “you can’t hit your position well enough to start, but hang in there…3B is yours once Chipper retires”. I know my agent would be crawling up Frank Wren’s ass tonight demanding a starting position or a trade.
I don’t think that’s the message at all. Maybe if you view baseball in the way it was viewed prior to sabermetrics, using only the traditional method…but that’s positively archaic.
The role of super utility has picked up a ton of steam in recent years. It’s a viable “position” in and of itself these days. A guy can easily start more often than a typical starting role player might, given their versatility.
I doubt Chone Figgins or Bill Hall’s agents were crying much when their clients signed deals worth almost $10MM/year at their peak.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Infante making the ASG last year was evidence enough of that
The question is, though: do we expect our FO to present it to Prado in that capacity?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I disagree...
Granted players, at the end of the day, want PAs…but still the 99% way of doing this is playing everyday.
I think you severely underestimate the Ego of the pro athlete. Especially one who moved off a position…where he started an All-Star Game…so that the team could acquire another RH power bat. You don’t reward that by trying to espouse the virtues of being a “Super Utility” player…and take him out of the Opening Day lineup. Chone Figgins was by my estimation an everyday player at 3B who could be moved to other positions depending on the lineup or game situation, and Bill Hall IIRC was predominantly a 2B.
There’s nothing archaic about wanting respect. To expect pro baseball players to say “Well if the Sabermetrics says so I guess I should ride the bench and only get 400 ABs instead of 600 ABs” is expecting a pretty Zen-like transformation of attitude in a miniscule amount of time.
In terms of mental makeup, Prado is not your average player. I think if you laid out the stats, he’d make an effort to understand. Plus, I’m getting the impression that he really doesn’t like playing the outfield that much. (I’ve heard similar from other infielders who were moved… remember what Chipper said about it?) If I were Wren, I’d try to make it worth his while by offering him a contract extension this winter, one that includes a no-trade, and is based on the expectation that he will be the starting 3B starting in 2013. Put that in his lap, tell him “This is yours if you’ll promise to work with us this year”, and see what he says. Besides, if our injury situation is anything like it was last season, Prado will get his innings in 2012.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
We don't give out no-trade clauses.
That isn’t going to change for Prado.
Figgins...
Didn’t play 3B for the Mariners until 2011. Played every game at 2B right out of the gate upon signing his contract, despite playing primarily third prior to that.
And, maybe he’s similar to Prado in that moving around helped him, because 2010 was a poor season. And then he played all but one game at 3B in 2011, and that was atrocious.
I think there may be something to the thought of turning a super-utility guy into an everyday player. Quite a few have struggled in that role in recent memory. I’m not out to prove it, but it could be something worth considering.
If players find success in any role, what great advantage is there in changing that?? You don’t change Hunter Pence’s swing, so why chain Prado to a position??
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I am repeatedly saying otherwise.
Willingham is horrible defensively, and not that much of a better hitter. He is also incredibly streaky, so I don’t know why someone said he is more consistent.
Nearly the same...
But I’d like Barmes in place of Gonzalez, even if he’s coming off a career year (and not a great one).
Eye test validated by situational stats, but the dude kills the ball with runners on. I don’t put a ton of stock into segmenting performance in such a manner, but I do remember him doubling home guys left and right from his time in Colorado.
Pretty much every defensive metric places him top-three in the league at the position, and he also passes the eye test in that respect. If you pull all metrics together comprehensively, he’s basically the best around.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I like Barmes as well and he was a really nice guy when I met him a few years ago at Rockies Spring Training, but I’m thinking he’ll probably want a two or three-year deal. I’d rather just have Gonzalez for one year instead of Barmes for two, but if he’d settle for a one-year deal, he’d definitely be the better option.
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Oct 11, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d be okay with two, simply because 2013 will either be Prado sliding to third, or playing significant time there behind a 41-year-old Chipper. With Prado’s being chained to third more often, Barmes can spell Uggla and back-up Pastornicky, if that becomes the team’s direction. I think he’ll fall below Infante’s 2/$8MM, so he’s not uber-expensive even in a backup role.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I like the first part, not the second...
wanna trade JJ or Hanson for out SS.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
How about moving Martin to SS in Winter Ball
and signing Sea Bass as a defensive replacement? How different is SS from 3B? Martin’s offense would be acceptable at SS, especially if you move him down in the order and don’t ask him to hit after Bourn. He’s too aggressive to be a good #2 hitter.
Then we could trade pitching for a good LF.
SS is way different from 3B, not even close. Put it this way, Chipper plays an ok 3B but imagine him playing SS.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 11, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And he's played less than 50 games there in the majors
Considering that Martin wasn’t even considered good enough to play 10 games at SS in the minors, I think its clear he has no business playing it in the majors.
He has only played LF in two games in the minors, and 3B 61 games, and yet he’s our starting LF and first backup at 3B. Your argument doesn’t hold water.
Nixa37 mentioned the minors. That’s how I responded. How many games did Prado play at 3B in the winter leagues?
Its not at all comparable
Defensive spectrum goes SS —> 2B/3B/CF —> LF/RF —> 1B —> DH
Guys move to the right at the big league level, if they move at all. No one moves to left except in especially rare cases that usually involve injury and positional shortages.
You left the "injury and..." part
I mean as in both happening at the same time and forcing a guy to play at a position the team would never think of having him play otherwise.
SS is tougher to play than 2B
2B and 3B are roughly equivalent in difficulty, while LF is considerably easier. How does the argument not hold water? How many guys in the majors have moved to SS without playing it in the minors? I’m not ever sure there is a single guy. Yet there are plenty of guys who have moved to 3B, and especially LF, without putting in much time at all there in the minors. Players tend to move down the defensive spectrum once they reach the bigs, not up.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Prado couldn’t play SS. It just means he was never asked to. We had Yunel. We didn’t anticipate that we’d need Prado at SS. If he’s athletic enough to move to 3B and LF, then maybe it’s worth a shot trying him at SS.
Or maybe they could just leave him in LF and move him to 6th or 7th in the order and let him hit the way he knows how.
Maybe it's because I'm hungry...
but for some reason I’m reading your name as “Bahama Breeze”…and now I wish I could have some Coconut Shrimp :(
I mean anyone can play SS
They could stick me out there if they wanted. The question is whether or not they can play it at an adequate level. There is absolutely no reason to think that Prado could.
Seriously, try to find one MLB player that spends significant time playing SS that didn’t play there in the minors. If a team thinks you have a shot of playing SS they stick you there, regardless of whether or not they have an option ahead of you in the majors or minors. There is no such thing as having too many SS prospects.
I agree that SS is a premium defensive position. That doesn’t “necessarily” mean that Prado couldn’t play it. Maybe the Braves have already experimented with him at SS and rejected the idea. We don’t know. FWIW, there have been a few instances I can recall of players shifting to different defensive positions against the trend you mentioned. Cal Ripken played mostly 3B in the minors (although he played some at SS as well). Craig Biggio shifted from catcher to 2B.
Frankly, I think the main problem was trying to bat him behind Bourn. I imagine it would be almost as difficult to redefine your job in the batter’s box as it would be to redefine your position in the field. Some players just aren’t suited to taking pitches on behalf of the baserunner.
C technically comes before SS, but I left it out because its just a different animal
Obviously McCann isn’t moving to SS anytime soon, but for an athletic C like Biggio a move to 2B is far from unprecedented.
As for Ripken, its an interesting case. All of the data from his 168 games below AA is missing, but he definitely played SS a good bit during that period. You are correct that he played more 3B than SS in the high minors, but you have to keep in mind that Ripken was really the first ever SS that was that tall. I wasn’t alive then, but my understanding is there were doubts about his ability to stick at SS because of his height. He played nearly as many games at 3B as SS his first two seasons in the majors before he really proved to the club that he could in fact handle the position despite his size.
As for Prado being tried at SS, I think we can safely assume the Braves did try him out there when they worked with him instructional leagues and at the minor league training complex before at 2B and 3B in the minors. If the club thinks a guy has a chance to handle the position, they’ll try him there until he pretty much proves otherwise. Look no further than Edward Salcedo who got 91 games at SS despite the fact that nobody really believed he ever had a chance to play there in the majors.
Also, Biggio was pretty awful at C if I remember correctly. Prado was average to below average playing an easier position at 2B, why would he be even adequate at a tougher position?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 12, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re welcome. Now tell your friends, so we don’t have to put up with this stupid suggestion again.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You're far from the first person to suggest this
No offense, but its an awful idea. If Prado could adequately handle SS, he would have been playing there in the minors.
I really wouldn’t be suprised to see the exact same guys out there (starters anyway) that we had this year. I’m MORE than willing to have A-Gonz’s defense with the expense of some offense. He saved plenty of runs with his magician style slide-spin-throws and I still love his on-field personality and attitude. It’s also not like the guy is a complete waste. He did get a couple clutch hits and mid-teens bombs.
McCann-C
Freeman-1st
Uggla-2nd
Gonz-SS
Chipper-3B
Heyward-RF (I’m convinced he’ll win the position back btw)
Bourn-CF
Prado-LF
All of those guys have the potential to be offensive wizards so they can make up for the possibility of Gonzy having a rough time.
Gonzo was terrible. When he wasn’t striking out with men in scoring position, he was grounding into double plays. And Freeman saved his bacon on a lot of iffy throws to first.
You're right
Gonzo’s horrible in the field, I don’t know why people keep talking about how amazing his defense is. We’re lucky he didn’t ever throw the ball into right field.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Your trying to change what I said only bolsters my point. I didn’t say he was horrible in the field. I just said he was horrible. But now that you mention it, his UZR/150 was -.03, and his dWAR was only 1.1. So the metrics say he was only average defensively, and his OPS says he was the eigth worst hitter in all of baseball.
Don't misunderstand me
I wasn’t trying to change what you said, I was making fun of what you said. There’s a subtle difference.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
And DRS has him as the second best SS in the league.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see a comparison of the offensive difference between Gonzalez and a league-average SS, and the defensive difference between Gonzalez and a league-average SS.
Just thinking out loud...
but it seems that we might benefit from trading JJ straight up for Carlos Quentin. They are both at about the same place on service time, are making similar money, have a lot of talent and injury issues.
I know Quentin is a horrid outfielder, but the Braves don’t have have a legit threat against LHP. Uggla at his best is not so good against lefties and Prado can’t be counted on to be a huge threat on a regular basis.
You could hid his glove somewhat by doing a partial platoon with Heyward at times, and Playing him in Left/Right based on weather or not Prado is spelling Chipper at third or Freeman at first.
Maybe not ideal, but he could help the team.
Though if the White Sox view Sale as a started or resign Mark Buehrle they might not want another SP.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
How is it about the same?
Jurrjens has twice the amount of time of team control left. To me being about the same place on service time means you’re close enough that you have the same amount of time of team control left.
so to you about the same means exactly the same? if you hate the idea fine, but don’t latch on to one tiny part of the argument that is nearly a non-issue and throw a fit about it.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
You said about the same amount of service time, not team control
Guys can be upwards of 100 days apart in terms of service time, but still have the same number of years of team control left.
I don’t see how you can say that “tiny” part of the argument is a non-issue either. That reason alone is why I wouldn’t even think about making that deal. If they did in fact have the same amount of team control left I would definitely consider it, but since JJ has twice as much time under team control left its just a bad deal for the Braves.
When you combine offense and defense...
…Quentin is not as good as Prado. Why trade JJ for a guy we shouldn’t be starting much?
Yeah I could see the argument for that
The difference between getting a guy for just one year versus two years is obviously rather large though.
Resign Gonzalez for a one year deal worth around 2-2.5M and call it a day. Prado and Heyward will bounce back. Shortstop is the only position we could upgrade and there isn’t anyone available in our price range. Clint Barmes is another interesting option that has been mentioned and would provide more versatility since he can play 2B. What type of deal is he looking for?
Over/Under...
On more unrealistic move when compared to Prado playing SS??
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Signing Reyes and/or Rollins
one of my favorites so far this offseason.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Only by virtue of the fact
that you’re comparing two relative impossibilities.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Why do we assume Gonzalez would accept a one year deal? One of the top defensive SS in the league could easily be offered a multi-year deal by another team.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 12, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Ding.
Especially on a club with a decent offense. He’d be a defensive upgrade on at least 25 teams… so yeah, I expect we’re gonna have a hard decision to make with Seabass.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
That being said, we could sign him to a multi-year deal and if we have a better starter he’d be an excellent late inning defensive replacement. Although, we could probably sign Jack Wilson to do that for less money.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 12, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want Jack Wilson anywhere near our roster next year.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 12, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
why the heck do so many want to get rid of Prado.
the dude has been outstanding until he got hurt.
he was on a pace to set new career highs in homers.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
'cause we know that homers are the only indicator of offensive value.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Oct 12, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
To be fair
the fact that he doesn’t have a lot of power has been one of the complaints levied against him.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
To Answer the Question of the Post
Nowhere, not really. That is what is going to drive everyone crazy this offseason. We have only one position where we could obviously upgrade offensively, and that is shortstop, but there just aren’t good hitters available at SS in our price range, and with the rest of our infield defense being weak, we need a good defensive guy there and there certainly aren’t good offensive and defensive SS’s available.
So, while we might slightly upgrade offensively at SS (there are plenty of good field iffy bat SS’s around, one might hit better than A-Gonz), there really isn’t much other opportunity. Barring a trade coming out of nowhere for a guy not known to be available, Prado is as good or better than the other options we could pursue for LF. One down year is not a good reason to take a starting job away from a guy who has hit well the previous two.
The other positions are pretty obvious: there aren’t catchers who hit better than McCann, Freddie is going nowhere, Uggla is a good hitting 2B and isn’t going anywhere, and Chipper will be at 3B until he retires. Bourn is as good as we could find in center, and not giving Heyward the chance to play every day after he was one of the best in the league in 2010 is beyond silly.
So, no, we can’t really add more offense. On the positive side, Heyward, Prado, and, to an extent, Uggla, should be better than 2011. Freeman could also improve (although it is hardly a given). We should be fine, but it is going to be a silly rosterbation season because people will want us to do something when there really isn’t anything productive to do.
I think you meant
not giving Heyward the chance to play every day that Constanza isn't playing is beyond silly.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
people will want us to do something when there really isn’t anything productive to do
LOL – This especially! October rosterbation definitely ramps up the Silliness Index, or the speed of the Improbability Drive, or whatever other metric you wanna attach to it.
But hey, it’s 4 months-plus until pitchers and catchers report, so whaddya gonna do? Bloggers gotta blog. Fans gotta rosterbate. Me included.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
not giving Heyward the chance to play every day after he was one of the best in the league in 2010 is beyond silly
Was I the only one noticing Jason’s stellar .577 OPS against LHP? His split against RHP wasn’t that incredible either for a LH hitter, .749 OPS. I wish everyone would come to a few consistent viewpoint about Jason Heyward….and that’s that 1) his shoulder is continuing to bother him, 2) he can’t read LH pitching.
Pretending that playing him everyday would somehow bust him out of his slump, based on what he did in 2010 (as if some magical statistical regression was about to take over), is really trying to paper over the current deficiencies in his game which are visible to everyone.
Well
1) Hopefully his shoulder will improve, and
2) This isn’t really evident just by quoting his OPS. Having a shoulder problem like he had might have magnified his natural difficulties against lefties. There’s no way to say that he just “can’t read LH pitching,” imo.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I base that off having no recognition, whatsoever, of deciphering the inside versus outside pitch. He swings at them all the same…as if they were belt-high outer-half. Chipper Jones was dead on when it came to Heyward. He has so many hols in his swing because he hasn’t learned to swing through a variety of slots to cover those holes up.
To me, Jason is susceptible (and I mean easily) to anything middle and up on the inside, and middle to low on the outside.
And having holes in your swing,
especially when you’re hurting, is a different issue from not being able to read LHP.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Well, I think we’re both agreeing to the same thing…he needs to heal and put in some serious work this offseason. But there’s no way he wasn’t reliable enough at the plate down the stretch to be considered an everyday player.
by TBuzz on Oct 12, 2011 2:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But there’s no way he wasn’t reliable enough at the plate down the stretch to be considered an everyday player.
Assuming I parse this correctly: yes, we’re in agreement, and he should be an everyday player provided he goes out and tries to earn his job again, which would involve trying to make sure he can stay healthy (stretch the shoulder more, or whatever the trainer suggests) and working on his swing. He doesn’t have to be perfect, but as long as he’s healthy, he’d be better out there than any of our other options, and it gives him some real practice on figuring out his swing issues.
If I didn’t parse that correctly: you need to avoid double negatives. :P
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Amazing that you want everyone to come to a consensus...
…and agree with you. I think people should do that on all topics with me, but somehow I doubt that is going to happen.
Yes, Heyward has shoulder issues, I think after he had another MRI, that is pretty obvious.
The LH pitching thing is questionable. While he was horrible against LHP in 2011, he did post a .755 OPS against lefties in 2010. Apparently, you think some magic repeat of 2011 will always happen in the future, which is as silly as your belief that people think that there will be a magical regression to 2010. I assume he will always do somewhat better against righties than lefties, that is natural. On the other hand, he is very young and he wouldn’t be the first guy who takes some time to figure out how to hit lefties—-something he will never do if he never faces them. Remember, he only had 115 plate appearances against lefties in 2011.
And I guess I just didn’t see the same thing as you did watching him (so saying this is “visible to everyone” is incorrect). Personally, I think the problem was that his adjustments were a medicine that was worse than the diesease. I think the standing way far back led to lunging, and if he went back to his more normal approach from 2010, he would do fine. I am far from a hitting coach, however, and I can’t say that my solution has any expert validity.
a few options
I like the Alex Gordon thought.
I like Mitch Moreland.
I still like Corey Hart.
Might could pry Drew Stubbs away – Cincy needs pitching baaaad.
Hah. Somebody other than me mentioned Mitch Moreland. I’m not sure what the Rangers’ plans are for him right now. He isn’t hitting well in the playoffs, and truthfully he hasn’t hit well since before the All-Star break when he was mostly playing outfield. Since the break he’s mostly been playing 1B.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Shortstop Options
1) Someone mention Scutaro as a FA option. One a one or two year deal…I am fine with that. His defense is about league average and his bat is probably a little above average. He gets on base…has a little pop…and can steal a couple bases. The thing I really love about the guy is that he doesn’t strike out. He has never had more than 71 K’s in a season? The Braves could use that in the line up.
2) Aybar. The Angels have Izuris who also plays a good SS. If you could get Aybar at a reasonable cost I think he fits in well. Puts the ball in play..is a good defensive SS and has speed. Worst case scenario he hits with an OK average and not great OBP in the #8 hole but w/ 30 steals and 7-10 HRs. Best case scenario he hits like he did in 2009 where his OBP was .350….bats #2 and forms a great table setting duo behind Bourn.
3) Pennington: Numbers aren’t going to look overly pretty. However, he is hitting his prime age and I think he could hit .265 w/ an OBP around .330..play league average defense…with 8 HRs and 20+ steals. That doesn’t sound great..but hitting him in the #8 hole at a reasonable cost wouldn’t be that bad. If you think that is horrible…look around the league. It is unfortunately not that bad for a SS these days.
4) Gonzalez: We know what he is…and if he is hitting in the #8 hole you take him for what he is worth…good glove…occasional pop. When you see him hitting 2nd…or 5th…6th…than “Houston..we have a problem”
- Now my one other idea…and I don’t want to be blasted for this as I don’t see enough of the Rays to know….but could Zobrist still play a league average SS? If so..how much would he cost to get from the Rays? The guy rates out as one of the best 2B in the league…one of the best RF in the league…a passable CF..and in the past he came up as a SS. If you could nab him to play SS that would be a steal. He is the kind of guy the Braves need. His “baseball IQ” seems to be off the chart and he has plus offense. He wouldn’t come cheap but the Rays are going to have to move Shields…they might be interested in one of our young arms.
Other options:
Bartlett-No thanks
Carroll-Like him as a back up…not sure if we want him starting.
Furcal-I would be ok with this but I think Wren would rather eat sh*t.
Bentacour-I would have to shoot someone if they did this.
Rollins/Reyes-Nope.
No chance the Rays give up Zobrist.
He’s sneakily one of the best players in the league and they know it.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Probably right...
But everyone has a price. Zobrist is one of those guys I would trade real value to get. I think he can be a game changer for a club.
Scutaro won't be a free agent.
Boston will pick-up the option. Doubt that the Angels let Aybar go, Izturis is probably the one that would be available. Pennington is another weak hitting, slick fielding SS—-he’d be fine, but why trade for something when you can get something similar cheaply in the FA market.
Pennington vs Gonzalez
I think the difference is that you can reasonably expect Pennington to have some offensive improvement…as he is younger and hitting prime. Gonzalez, however, should be expected to decline offensively from this point forward.
Plus, offensively Pennington offers simply more- he can steal paces…has a little pop…and doesn’t strike out 6 times for every walk he talks. Gonzalez literally had a 6 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. …6 to &$%)&$% 1!! That is horrendous. Pennington would be an offensive upgrade over Gonzalez.
However, that being said I do understand the argument that he may not be worth the trade costs…but in a vacuum Pennington has more offensive value than Gonzalez.
As for Aybar…could be possible that wouldn’t trade him. However, the Braves have the arms to deal and if the ANgel’s don’t want an arm…there are plenty of teams that do..that would be willing to give up the bad the A’s need in a three way trade.
Costanza
Good story. No real value to any team outside of Atlanta. You give him a chance to win the 5th OF spot..but likely a back up in AAA that you are comfortable calling up. People that are packaging Costanza in trades thinking he has value are mistaken. Almost every organization has their AAAA speedster to call up to play an emergency CF or post season pinch runner (probably hoping that he becomes Scott Poseidnik). If Constanza get thrown into a trade I would think it would be as a 3rd or 4th player…a sweetener to the deal…not part of the substance.
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