Tommy Hanson Dominates as Braves win 6-2
by BenDuronio on Jun 16, 2010 11:12 PM EDT
in Braves Game Recaps
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PrintTommy Hanson showed why he is one of the top young pitchers in baseball by throwing 7 shutout innings against one of the top offenses in all of baseball. Through the first 5 innings the only base runner the Rays had was via a Carlos Pena bunt single due to an over-shift. The only small bit of trouble Hanson saw was in the sixth inning when John Jaso doubled following a Hank Blalock single. With Carl Crawford up, Blalock tried to score on a wild pitch by Hanson but was ruled out at home on a close call. Tommy then walked Crawford who subsequently stole his 23rd base, but Hanson was able to get the dangerous Evan Longoria to fly out to center to end the inning. Hanson struck out 6 batters over the course of the night and the walk to Crawford was the only one he issued.
The Rays' starting pitcher Wade Davis pitched effectively as well, throwing 5 innings while striking out 5 and walking none, but the Braves got to him in the third inning. With 1 out and Martin Prado on third and Jason Heyward on first, Davis struck out Chipper to put the pressure on Brian McCann. McCann delivered with a double to deep right which scored Prado. Troy Glaus followed McCann's double with a single to center and Heyward and McCann came across to make the score 3-0.
Eric Hinske hit his fifth home run of the season in the bottom of the sixth, and Melky Cabrera and Prado each had RBI singles in the bottom of the eighth. Prado continued to stay hot and is now 16-for-27 in his past 6 games. Yunel Escobar also kept his bat going as he had 2 hits including a double. Escobar now has 2 hits in each of his past 3 games.
The Braves were on pace for a shutout, but with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth Ben Zobrist had an RBI single and Dioner Novarro followed that with an RBI double against Jonny Venters. Peter Moylan looked sharper than he has as of late in his 0.2 innings pitched, striking out 2 and walking 1 before being removed for Venters.
For the 187 of you that voted that Tommy Hanson would have the best outing in the series preview poll, your odds of being correct are looking good right about now.
Tomorrow's rubber game will feature Tim Hudson (6-2, 2.43 ERA) vs. James Shields (5-5, 4.55 ERA) at 7:10pm EST. Shields has pitched much better than his record and ERA show, so it should be a solid pitching match-up to close out the series.
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Tommy taking names.
Yunel seems to be back, too. This is good. His homerless days are numbered…..!Viva los Bravos!
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 16, 2010 11:17 PM EDT reply actions
Lots of good stuff tonight.
Hanson going all Ginsu on the Rays is number one, but there was also…’ske going yard, Glaus continuing to be an RBI monster, BMac raking, Melky looking like a yahoo twice then calmly stroking a single right through a vacated hole and PeMo looking (again) like a Badass MoFo.
All of that plus Maddon redfaced, pissed and spluttering adds up to a happy night.
HUMANS AT WEBADDRESS FANGRAPHS & BASEBALLPROSPECTS PERHAPS WILL SPEAK ILL OF PERFORMANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MAGICAL MEANINGLESS "WHIP"
hate to be a downer…but Blalock was clearly safe, and the ump missed that…we got lucky there…that inning could have been a problem as Tommy started to struggle with his command a bit in the 6th.
but a win is a win and the outside that inning the rays didnt really present any threat so they didnt deserve the win and we did..so suck it tampa bay
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
lol. Tommy had some quick movement on that play. I think the ump gave him the benefit of the doubt.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 16, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Yah
I was surprised at how bad the call was. Like Joe Simpson said – he looked out live. Replays clearly showed Blalock had almost his entire arm across the plate before Hanson applied the tag.
Either way, I don’t think it impacted the game that much, Braves had already put up a decent lead and Hanson was locked in. I wouldn’t be happy if I was a Rays fan though.
Speaking solely for myself
Who gives a fuck?
HUMANS AT WEBADDRESS FANGRAPHS & BASEBALLPROSPECTS PERHAPS WILL SPEAK ILL OF PERFORMANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MAGICAL MEANINGLESS "WHIP"
by Sam Jethroe on Jun 17, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I give a fuck thats why I brought it up…the article referred to the play as a close call, which i guess technically it was, but he was clearly safe and seeing as that particular play drastically altered that inning and possibily the game.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I hope he proves me wrong, but I think Huddy is in for a rude awakening tomorrow. He NEEDS to strike more people out
The RAYS are gonna get induced, playa.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 16, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure about tomorrow
But if he doesn’t get the K/BB ratio straightened out soon he will be in trouble. His peripherals are unsustainable, in my opinion.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
Huddy this year, reminds me of JJ last year
[only built for cuban linx]
by Mighty Healthy on Jun 17, 2010 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions
why does he NEED to strike more people out?
if he’s pitching to contact and being effective, why change?
It’s the percentages in how hard the balls are being hit. They aren’t close to in line with his career numbers and he is throwing all of his pitches at a similar percentage with a similar velocity. He hasn’t really changed anything, except he is walking more and striking out less. Normally, that’s not a good combination.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
There have been lots of different studies
Pitchers have very little ability to affect BABIP. What they can affect, are, to some extent, Ground Ball rate, Fly ball rate, and line drive rate, but not with great precision. The average pitcher, regardless how much sinking action he produces on every pitch, will still be seeing BABIPs in a range from about .290-.315. In the long term, any BABIPs not in that range will regress toward it, regardless of how good the pitcher is. You won’t find very many pitchers outside that range beyond the dead ball era.
So a big part of a pitcher’s task is avoiding contact. Not every pitcher has to be a major strike out pitcher-extreme groundball types like can be successful with lower K-rates, in the 5s or so. Tim Hudson is stiking out under 4 per 9, which isn’t enough to get it done in the long run. There are just plenty of times when you NEED the strike-out, or at least the ability. When a runner is on first, there’s a big gap in the right side of the infield, so even inducing groundballs isn’t fullproof. Even though groundballs only produce hits about 23% of the time, that’s still a big risk when you’ve got the bases loaded. It’s a much better outcome if you can get the man to fan.
In Tim’s case, he’s also walking more guys than you’d like for a pitcher without a high K rate. He’s just barely striking out more men than he walks, which is a big warning sign. Guys like that often get in trouble.
Tom Glavine is just about the only pitcher who’s ever been able to defeat the metrics-not striking out a ton, fairly average walk rates, without being an extreme groundball type.
So...
how can you be so concerned with the fact that he is just barely striking out more people than he walks when he doesn’t strike out that many people? Doesn’t that fact make the stat kind of worthless. Wouldn’t you instead need to compare his BB/9 to the league average to see how bad his walk rate really is? His WHIP is 1.16 at the moment. It seems as though his BB/9 is probably not too bad. Especially considering that in his last 21 IP he has had 5 BB. Citing his K/BB walk rate as a reason why he can’t keep up his performance, when he obviously does not K many people, is completely misleading.
I read the open thread at the Rays site, they were pretty torn up over the play at the plate. Only 350+/- comments, but they seem to know what they are talking about.
Heyward is pretty good
I can only imagine if the situations were reversed how upset everyone would be. That was a pretty critical call in a crucial situation.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
He looked out live, but they don’t have replay because they’re idiots. The game is flawed, but it could also be corrected, very easily. People like Bud Selig are fools.
What else can you really say?
Braves Win
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 16, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to see a higher stress on getting the calls right
Than to see them implement a replay system as a fail safe.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
Might want to run that one by Hohn or Angel.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 17, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Hohn made two calls tonight and they were both right.
I have my doubts that the sun is still there.
HUMANS AT WEBADDRESS FANGRAPHS & BASEBALLPROSPECTS PERHAPS WILL SPEAK ILL OF PERFORMANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MAGICAL MEANINGLESS "WHIP"
by Sam Jethroe on Jun 17, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a start. The "no-douchestache" thing doesn't fool me, tho.
He’s still the same piece of shite.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 17, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
The Book...
I wish I took Glaus, Melky, Hanson like i originally wanted too, but I still feel that Glaus, Prado, Hanson will still bring home the prize!
Love seeing the Braves bounce back tonight and play a great game after such a disappointing series opener last night. Let’s keep up the good hitting against a struggling James Shields. We need to support Huddy early, because struggling or not, Shields is still a quality pitcher. GO BRAVES!!
"It said 'Bear Left,' so they turned around and went home...." - John Smoltz
Hanson had six strikeouts and has a high uniform number….picking him for that contest would not get you a win. That would ensure you lose.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Jun 17, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
still looking for a wagner appearance
is it wrong to hope for a close game tomorrow where the braves are leading heading into the 9th?
Great
We have a big win and all I get here is more gloom and doom for Huddy predictions and hand wringing about getting the good end of a shitty stick, for once.
Seriously, folks…learn to embrace success.
HUMANS AT WEBADDRESS FANGRAPHS & BASEBALLPROSPECTS PERHAPS WILL SPEAK ILL OF PERFORMANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MAGICAL MEANINGLESS "WHIP"
People on the internet only know negativity.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Jun 17, 2010 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
In my opinion
It actually means more success. Hudson has never actually thrown the ball this poorly in his life. I feel as if he will start pitching better, as in striking out more and walking less. This should lead to his numbers staying pretty solid for the course of the season. That’s how I see it happening at least.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
I still really suck at hitting reply. I meant to send that in response to Sam Jethroe.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
You’d think a moderator would know where the reply button is. :-p
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Jun 17, 2010 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I've read all your posts on Huddy
and i know what point your trying to get across…maybe i’m not a stats guy…but that’s a pretty intense microscopic look into a bunch of stats most don’t care about – maybe i should just speak for myself. But the second line in your post has left me speechlees…“Hudson has never thrown the ball this poorly in his life” – i probably have more confidence in Hudson now than i’ve ever had during his time in Atlanta…and he’s looked more aggressise than any other point in his career…dude has been pounding the zone.
Kawakami is not absolute shit, but he isn’t any good either.
by Nova Scotia Steve on Jun 17, 2010 12:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I hope it doesn’t seem like I am bashing Huddy. If it were anyone else I would be saying the same thing. I’ve always liked ground ball pitchers and I’ve always had confidence in Hudson, even when he first came to Atlanta. These things even out over time. Most likely, his strikeout/walk ratio increases and his runs allowed stay close to the same, or hits start landing and his runs allowed go up. Of course there are may be an aberration or two, but for the most part they even out. I would hope that most do care about these numbers, or at least try to. They can be very telling of future performance.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
I know you're not bashing him
I just have grave doubts about the one size fits all nature of these assertions. Bronn mentioned Glavine defying them for the length of his career. Beleve me, I know that’s true. Some people spent every day he was in the majors saying, essentially, “You just wait…that bastard Glavine will get his some day!”
Looking at Tim’s career numbers, it doesn’t look like his walk rate is dramatically out of line with his career norms. His K rate is well down but I have a hard time seeing anything that would obviously cause that (an arm injury or changed emphasis in hs pitch selection, for example.) If I had to speculate, I would think his K rate will go up but I’m just not convinced that anyone can say, with any real degree of certainty, that he can’t continue having success even if it doesn’t change dramatically.
by Sam Jethroe on Jun 17, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm just going to shut up about this
I have real problems with this vein of analysis but I’m not all that interested in hashing them out because I don’t want to be lumped in with the KK haters and the other luddites who show up here.
HUMANS AT WEBADDRESS FANGRAPHS & BASEBALLPROSPECTS PERHAPS WILL SPEAK ILL OF PERFORMANCE TONIGHT DUE TO MAGICAL MEANINGLESS "WHIP"
Hi
Don’t worry i’m mentally exhausted from KK discussion for one day. I was rippin pretty hard today.
Kawakami is not absolute shit, but he isn’t any good either.
by Nova Scotia Steve on Jun 17, 2010 12:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
any pitcher that goes 0-9 is going to come under some scrutiny.
lol, and we’re still in first. in a division with the thillies and fish. (and the mets). and the Yankees play the Mets this wkend, while we play the Royals. And we have at least 3 more straight W’s to look forward to. “jk”
I hope KK gets a Win more than anybody, but JJ is coming. I just wonder what will happen.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 17, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
One thing to consider about Hudson's production
Is that fact that so far, Escobar is having the best defensive year of his career at Shortstop. If you look at his his numbers he’s tied for the league lead in saved runs even though he has played something like 40 fewer innings than the other top candidates. I can’t even remember the number of times that I have seen a Hudson pitch slapped back up the middle for what I was certain would be a clean single, only to see Yunel range over and calmly gobble it up. I think Hudson’s numbers are definitely benefiting from Yunel’s glove this year.
The problem is that Yunel has no affect on his ground ball percentage being a career high and his line drive percentage being a career low. Escobar has been a cog defensively, for sure, and his glove definitely has helped Hudson’s stats. With that said, Hudson is still battling against a poor set of peripherals and in order to succeed similarly the rest of the season he will need to pitch better.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
I definitely agree that he is going to have pitch better for us in the second have to maintain his numbers. But, I actually think his abnormally high ground ball percentage and career high walk ratio are intertwined at this point. I think he has benefited from facing a lot of undisciplined hitters. I don’t have anything but anecdotal evidence from the games I’ve watched, but it seems like he gets an awful lot of his ground balls on pitches out of the strike zone. I think if he had to pitch against the Braves, a very disciplined team at the plate, he would actually be in a lot of trouble. So, essentially I agree with you. As the season wears on and hitters typically begin adjusting in the second half, Hudson is going to have to change his approach a bit to maintain his early numbers.
or maybe his year off from injury gave him a chance to get rested and strong again. The man is a workhorse starting pitcher and that’ll take its toll on anyone. You’re quoting a lot of stats that he has plenty of control over if he’s just flat out throwing his sinker better than usual. If he pounds it low in the zone, he’ll probably tend to miss out of the zone more too. He won’t leave the hanging breaking balls up that get hit, but he won’t get as many strikeouts. He’ll induce more ground balls and he’ll have a better ERA.
yeah, 6-2 with an ERA under 3 is for wimps.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
I see a troll under that bridge!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 17, 2010 12:41 AM EDT reply actions
Sweet Heyward Almighty, we are spoiled
"I've been to two rodeos and three goat ropin's, but I've never seen anything like that" - Joe Simpson on Brooks Conrad's walkoff Grand Slam, 5/20/10
by BraveSaluki on Jun 17, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I really don't understand what were talking about here with Huddy....
i literally have not missed seeing a game all season and i havent picked up on what all the fuss is about. An out is an out and obviously Huddy is doing something right to make outs whether it be Ks or not. This whole argument seems kind of trivial to me
The basic idea
Is that more bad things can happen when a batter makes contact as opposed to him striking out. It’s a reasonable insight but the statictical Taj Mahal that gets constructed on it is one I have my doubts about.
I thought I said I wasn’t going to pursue this…
Itd be one thing if there was a major decrease in velocity and/or his pitch selection had changed to cause a negative affect on his numbers. But that just isnt the case. Because of this, I firmly believe that Hudson knows exactly what he is doing right now better than any stat or metric could ever deduce.
It will take him getting shelled a couple times or a situation where a strikeout is of dire need to change. But with the same old Huddy out there, i have little to no fear that he couldnt adjust.
Whether its working back from a year layoff, pacing (my 1a choice), or just going with whats been working (my 1b choice), Huddy has a firm grasp on his situation and the metrics just dont apply.
God, I misspelled "statistical"
Way to seize the argument…
This is karmic payback for not shutting up like I said I would.
Bill Hohn will be behind the plate tomorrow night...
I’m not even gonna bother watching the game. That jackass is awful when calling balls and strikes.
"Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward."
and if we even think about trading JT, it’s for Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria. And yeah… that’s about it.
"Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward."
by Scott Coleman on Jun 17, 2010 5:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
NOOOOOOO NOT BILL HOHN! /cries
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Jun 17, 2010 11:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bill Hohn….Now I’ll be pissed off all day thinking about the fact that he has a chance to kick Bobby out of a game tonight!
Even with Hohn on Thursday...we have a job to do and I believe we will.
Tommy continues to impress and our offense did much better.
And, if Hinske makes solid contact with the ball – it tends to go a helluva long way don’t it? ;-)
.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
Where the hell are all the pissers and moaners from Tuesday’s game recap? Oh, right, the Braves won, and when the last out was recorded…
I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of troll voices cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
Shouldn't Brent Clevlen get a shot in LF before...awww, forget it!
……uh…
LOL
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Jun 17, 2010 11:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Mets...
They’re doing well playing AL’s AAA teams. This is where the unbalanced schedule is annoying. The Braves just went 6-5 on a road trip and our first two interleague series are against the Twins and Rays. Meanwhile the Mets are in back to back series against the Indians and Orioles. It’s a joke. At least we get the White Sox and Royals next, but both are those teams are better than the teams the Mets are facing.
The Mets also have to play the Yankees 6 times every year, so its not that unbalanced.
"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson
Well to be fair we had the Red Sox for 6 games a year before this year, but i agree about it not being all that unbalanced.
"Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward."
by Scott Coleman on Jun 17, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
They’ve played the most home games and we’ve played the least.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Jun 17, 2010 2:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
a year before this year
Also known in some circles as last year.
"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson
If I wanted to be a dick I guess I could make a “and that’s why Hanson is the ace of our staff” comment like so many people make after Hudson pitches a good game. But instead, I’ll just keep my mouth shut and nod approvingly to myself, silently knowing that I’m right.
"UNLIKE CYBORG REYES JOJO MY CPU DOES NOT REQUIRE 'EARNED RUNS' FOR NOURISHMENT"
You’re always right, Beard.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Jun 17, 2010 2:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I basically just have one comment about this game. I have read a few recaps of the game (I’m not referring to this one, though), and I am just plain sick of hearing about the missed call at the plate. First of all, that missed call did not change the fact that Hanson totally dominated the Rays for 7 innings. I know he has been prone to give up a few bad innings here and there, but I still think he has strong enough mental fortitude that one more run would not have drastically changed the way he pitched from then on out.
The other problem I have with all the fuss people have been making over this is the fact that the Braves have had numerous calls go against them this year that shouldn’t have and I cannot remember one single time where it showed up in all the recaps and people claimed it changed the game and was a lot of the reason the Braves lost the game. However, I can remember 2 times when calls have gone in their favor: this one and the call at first in the Rockies game, and both times these calls have shown up for everyone to read to discount a Braves win.
I get that ESPN and MLB.com and other sites are all about the AL East, but I think that it’s pretty ridiculous to say that one play changed the game, when their team could only manage 5 hits the entire game. One team got 13 hits and the other got 5. Perhaps that is the reason one team won and the other lost.
Ditto
Any of us who have been fans for more than a couple of years have a veritable laundry list of times that missed calls, usually from biased and/or idiotic umps like Hohn or Doug Eddings, have cost us, big. I stopped worrying about the occasions when the Braves benefit from them a long time ago.
by Sam Jethroe on Jun 18, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
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