Postcards from the Edge 2: More Updates on Former Braves

We Braves fans tend to get attached to our players, so I think it's a good idea to periodically check in on a few of our former players to see how they are doing with their new teams. Here are some updates on 5 former Braves:

Andruw Jones, White Sox

Much has been made of Andruw's renaissance on the south side of Chicago this year. And it's true, his numbers are downright renaissancey so far, including a .600+ slugging percentage, which would be easily the highest of his career (he's only topped .541 once in a full season: .575 in the 51-homer year of 2005). So far, he has put up an incredible .344 ISO, which is up in the Pujols / Manny stratosphere, and actually would have led the league in 2009. Andruw has also stolen 6 bases already, which is tied for his most since 2002.

It's still only mid-May, though. Winston Wolf would agree that it is not yet time to declare Andruw "as good as ever." As Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs notes, Andruw looked to be back to his old self early in 2009, too. Let's compare the two seasons. Here is his 2010 line:

And here is his 2009 stat line at about the same point (~100 PAs):

After that point in 2009, though, he went in the tank (except for some decent power). For the rest of 2009, he hit .180 / .274 / .405. We'll have to wait and see if Andruw can avoid that fate in 2010.

One auspicious sign is that Andruw is playing the outfield again this year (he was mostly a DH in 2009). While he does not appear to be nearly the dominant defensive presence that he was in the past, merely being able to play a position without getting a hernia makes him more valuable than last year.

In addition, the (presumed) reason behind his resurgent defensive ability--improved conditioning--bodes well for his continued hitting prowess. Perhaps last year he tailed off after 2 months because he was still not in great shape. If his body can hold up through the rest of the year, Andruw may be able to keep up a good offensive pace, even if he will obviously fall off from his current levels.

Good health may not be in the cards for Andruw, though--he's already missed the past few games with a stiff neck.

(Updates on a Charlie, a Casey, and a couple of Rafaels after the jump...)

Charlie Morton, Pirates

At first glance, Charlie's numbers look downright scary:

However, he has not been nearly as bad as his ERA would attest. Charlie has pitched to some abysmal luck so far this year. Batters are hitting .389 on balls in play against him--with decent luck, it'd be much closer to .300. That goes a long way toward explaining that terrible H/9 rate. With normal luck, he'd have given up 6-9 fewer hits, which would make his H/9 between 10.5 and 11.5. That'd be bad but not terrible.

In addition, Charlie has allowed home runs on nearly 22% of his fly balls, which is also likely a product of bad luck (both his career rate and the league average are more like 11-12%, so he's giving up homers at twice the normal rate). Some studies have suggested that HR/FB is almost entirely luck, although I am not sure how much credence I place in those theories. Still, I doubt that Charlie will maintain such a Jo-Jo-esque rate for the rest of the year.

Charlie's K and BB rates are decent. I would expect him to be a decent starter going forward--nothing that we'll miss too much, but worthy of being in the Pirates' rotation.

Casey Kotchman, Mariners

The Mariners showed a lot of confidence in Casey this offseason, signing him instead of Russell Branyan and handing him the first-base job. They have even used him in the #3 spot in the lineup for a third of his PAs. Casey rewarded their faith by getting off to a good start in the first 2 weeks, OPSing at nearly 1.000 and even hitting 3 homers.

Since then, though? It's been ugly. Here is his current line:

Like so many of the Mariners' hitters, Casey has been nearly an automatic out lately, hitting .077 / .186 / .115 since April 26th (59 PA). I know his defense at 1B is great, but not even Brian Schneider could overcome that kind of offensive ineptitude. He seems like a nice guy, so I'm going to keep rooting for him to put it together. The odds don't look good at this point, though. Unless he can learn to play shortstop or catcher, his offense likely won't ever be enough to make him a good big-league starter.

Rafael Furcal, Dodgers

This former Brave (who was also nearly a current Brave) got off to a great start this year. Unfortunately, his injury woes resurfaced at the end of April, and he went to the DL with a pulled hamstring. Here were his stats before the injury:

He was scheduled to come off the DL last night but was unable to. He'll miss at least a few more games and probably have to go on another rehab assignment. The Dodgers have been playing well lately, but they are going to need Fukey* come back him to continue his hot hitting if they hope to stay in the race this year in the NL West, which looks to be an unexpectedly tough division.

* I will love Bobby Cox forever for giving us this nickname.

Rafael Soriano, Rays

If you just looked at Soriano's saves and ERA, you might think that he has been even better than he was for the Braves in 2009. And he has been pretty good. Just not "1.93 ERA" good. For reference, his FIP is 3.24 and his xFIP is 4.06. One reason why his peripherals are not quite so dominant is that Rafael is striking out almost 4 fewer batters per 9 innings so far than he did in 2009. Here's his line:

While I'm sure the Rays are happy to have him as their closer, I'm equally glad that we used the $7M that Soriano is making to sign Billy Wagner, who despite his semi-implosion last night makes me feel more comfortable when he's on the mound.

Since Your Last Letter...

Here are some quick updates on the five players I covered in the last Postcards post:

• Jeff Francoeur has come crashing back down to earth. His current line is eerily reminiscent of his last couple years in Atlanta: .222 / .287 / .381. He has walked just twice since April 19th, and has hit .155 / .215 / .224 in that stretch (65 PA). Semper Failcoeur, indeed.
• Manny Acosta continues to cause Acostalypses for the Mets. He's struck out 9 guys in 7 innings but has otherwise been very inconsistent. He has also walked 5 guys and given up 2 homers, including a walkoff job to Laynce Nix and the Reds on May 3rd.
• Kelly Johnson has cooled off a bit but continues to have an excellent line: .274 / .359 / .605. His 10 homers rank among the league leaders. He went 2/5 with a double, strikeout, and 2 runs in his return to Atlanta last night.
• Adam LaRoche has woken up early this summer. As of our last update, he had not homered, but he has hit 4 since and is now at .246 / .346 / .456 overall. Aside from the AVG, that's pretty good, especially for such a notorious 2nd-half hitter. I guess the warm climate of Arizona (and hitting in Chase Field) has helped him. However, Adam had a typical LaRoche-in-May game last night in his re-return to Turner Field, going 0/5 with 3 strikeouts.
• Javier Vazquez finally may have turned a corner for the Yankees. After struggling mightily in his first 5 starts, Joe Girardi skipped his turn in the rotation. That seems to have worked, as Javy put up easily his best start of the year last time out: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K, and 2 BB. Of course, the Yankees got shut out by Rick Porcello and the Tigers in that game, so he took a loss. The game was also in Detroit, a notorious pitchers' park--we'll have to wait and hope Javy can continue his good work in the big city.