Kevin Goldstein: Braves Prospect List Q&A 2010
One of the most popular off-season series of posts at Talking Chop is back, starting today with the first Braves Prospect List Q&A for 2010. We'll have at least four of these Q&A's this year, and the series kicks off with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.
First, a general note about the Q&A's; I try to ask questions based on the prospect guru's top-Braves-prospect list, but I also try to go beyond that to incorporate some prospects who we may not have seen on the list, but nonetheless care about as a Braves community. I will ask many of the same questions from one person to another, with some variety, but that is by design, as I find it interesting how different analysts answer the same question.
Kevin Goldstein has been doing this Q&A for me since I started this series three years ago. He is one of the more respected names in prospect analysis, and always seems to have surprise prospects on his Braves prospect lists. He is one of the best reasons why everyone should have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus. If you'd like to review the Q&As from previous years, here is 2009, 2008 and 2007. His ranking of Braves prospects this year can be found here.
Q: Give us your prediction of where Jason Heyward will start the season, and what kind of year he will have.
A: The first part of that question is really hard, and I think it's just going to come down to spring training. If he does really well, he's there Opening Day. I'll give you a sneak preview that nobody outside of BP has seen. Our projection system, PECOTA, thinks he'd hit .277/.350/.473 in the big leagues, and that sounds about right to me.
Q: Is Heyward ready to be an everyday major leaguer from opening day 2010?
A: Yes. He's not a great one yet, but I certainly think he will be. If there is a service time concern, you could see a Tommy Hanson-esque year where he's not there until May, but he can produce now.
Q: Does the depth of pitching at the lower levels of the Braves organization represent the greatest depth the organization has ever had? How good will the rotation at Rome be?
A: "Ever" might be a bit strong, there were some years in the 90s where the system was amazing. The Rome rotation could be crazy, Teheran and Vizcaino are for sures, Lopez is a distinct possibility, and then you probably have Stovall, and any number of guys like Oberholtzer, Hale, Brewer, Masters, etc. It's going to be tough to pick just five.
Q: Who will be ready to contribute to the major leagues first and why, Craig Kimbrel or Mike Minor?
A: It's a crazy tough question. Like I said in the write-up, if Kimbrell starts throwing strikes in spring, he could break camp with the Braves. If he keeps walking guys left and right, he might never get out of Gwinnett. Minor on the other hand has a more defined path that you can have a lot more confidence in him staying on.
Q: Beyond Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, do you see any of our position player prospects being impact players in the major leagues? Will Adam Milligan have more success than Cody Johnson?
A: Well, I have Milligan higher for a reason, no? That said, Braves people I talked to are convinced that Bethancourt has the ability to move way up this list. He has the best star possibility after Heyward for me, even more so than Freeman.
Q: Among the pitching prospects on the Braves 40-man roster, do you see any useful major leaguers emerging from the group that includes Todd Redmond, Jeff Lyman, Jose Ortegano, Lee Hyde, Kyle Cofield, and Jonny Venters? Could any of these prospects be impact players?
A: Impact? None of them. That doesn't mean there's no big leaguers in that group. I think Ortegano is the best of that group by a good margin; he actually just missed the Top 15. Hyde could end up like an O'Flaherty kind of guy and would be my second choice from that group.
Q: Are there any comps to Christian Bethancourt? Any insight into why Braeden Schlehuber had a rough year, might he not have been 4th-round material? Do you see any prospect future for Matt Kennelly?
A: I'm not a big fan of comps, unless they are really, really obvious. There's not one for Bethancourt, especially as right now there's a lot more to what he can be than what he is, so what are we really comping to? Schlehuber was just plain bad last year, but he's hardly the first fourth round pick not to work out – happens all the time, and not something to get too worked up about. Kennelly is really no more than an organizational catcher.
Q: Which young player package will be better in the long run? Which group would you prefer?
(A) Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez
(B) Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke
(C) Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino
A: I see what you did there. I'd probably take group C. In fact, I'm quite sure I'll take group C.
Q: Is there any hope for Cole Rohrbough to bounce back from his rough 2009 campaign?
A: I think there's some hope. I wouldn't totally write him off, but the reviews from scouts left me with no choice but to leave him off the Top 15. He's still got size and stuff, but that stuff took a big step backwards in 2009.
Q: What is the biggest strength of the Braves minor league system? The biggest weakness?
A: The biggest strength might be that they have the best position prospect in the game. No other team can say that, and that's huge. After that, it's all the young arms. Just so much talent there, including three with upper-echelon possibilities. The weakness is up the middle guys, especially middle infielders. I don't think there's a second baseman or shortstop of note in the organization.
Many thanks to Kevin for agreeing to this 10 question e-mail interview. I thoroughly enjoyed his answers as I hope you did, I especially like his praise of Christian Bethancourt.
2 recs |
149 comments
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Comments
Great stuff
Looking forward to the next one!
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 26, 2010 9:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Good read. Thanks, G!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 9:29 AM EST reply actions
Good Stuff
I hope the Braves can lock up Escobar for atleast 3 years and I think that Prado would also be worth locking up for a 2yr or 3yr deal depending on his production in 2010. That will give the Braves time to get some infield prospects in the minor leagues. Not to mention that Chipper will not be here forever.
I am skeptical about making Prado a long-term answer.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Really? I had no idea you felt that way…
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
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I know…but, just in case anyone out there was still unsure…
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
in his defense… i dont think there is a lot of people who are ready to give Prado any kind of extension at this point, that said depending on how his 2010 goes, i could foresee some kind of extension, but it doest seem likely…he will probably get the same treatment as Giles and KJ before when he gets to be in the $3M-5M range.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
i am as well
but if he does well in 2010 he could be worth it
by drumzalicious on Jan 26, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Where’s Martin’s Big Prado at to back Prado up? Oh wait, that was Kelly wasn’t it?
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 26, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Martin’s Big Prado definitely does not have the same ring to it…
by Kelly's Big Johnson on Jan 26, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
I figure if you sign him up early you get him at what could be a low cost considering his production. If he turns out to continue his production then great. If he doesn’t perform as well at least you didn’t spend lots.
I really like Prado. I think that he did a great job last year in earning the starting position. The Braves obviously are high on him or they would not have allowed KJ to leave.
I think it is a smart low cost decision and it allows the Braves the time needed to assess their minor leauge infield issues. IMO
he;s already under team control until 2012 ( i beleive) there no real reason to give him a long term contract unless u think his arb phase is goign to be exorbitantly expensive
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Good stuff, but, as always, a few qualms. What’s his definition of impact? I’d have to think that guys like Redmond, Ortegano, and Hyde can certainly have an impact. Also, no love for Matt Kennelly? The kid is 21 and we know it takes Australians a while.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Six Teams Considering Wang
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
tee-hee…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
hmm
his line for Heyward is kind of interesting i would expect a higher OBP from Heyward. Like .370ish then as he grows more in the .400ish range like chip
You expect an OBP higher than .350 for a 20 year old rookie in his first year? I hope not all Braves fans feel that way because that’s quite a bit of pressure to throw on the kid.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 26, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
it's not pressure
more something i feel would come as a result of him hitting in front of the pitcher and also his plate discipline and taking walks.
by drumzalicious on Jan 26, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Still
a .370 OBP is a high expectation. I would be thrilled with a .350 OBP out of him.
I also think that, as a rookie, pitchers are going to try to challenge him in his first year. Maybe he gets a couple extra walks hitting ahead of the pitcher (which is a presumption, I have no idea what Bobby will do with him), but a .370 is still quite a stretch for a young rookie in their first full season, even one so talented as Heyward.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 26, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
By the way, I threw the question up to Rob Neyer on an ESPN chat 2 minutes ago
Andy (CT)
Hey Rob, Over/Under .350 OBP for Jason Heyward in his rookie year?
Rob Neyer (12:04 PM)
Under. I love Heyward, but they throw some pretty mean pitches in the majors.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 26, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not a huge Neyer fan, but he hit this one on the head. I like the snarkiness of that comment.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I was trying to go through life without ever seeing “snarkiest” again…thanks.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 26, 2010 6:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Your actually right. I did it to myself…noooo!!!
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 27, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
This. It is amazing how people expect anything above average play from Heyward this season.
He has dominated AA…nothing more. Expectations need to be tempered.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Expectations will always be too high in this type of situation...
…and Heyward could fall well short or even exceed them. Prospects of Heyward’s caliber are few and far between, and there just isn’t enough sample size to know how he will perform in 2010 or in the future. He looks very, very good; he dominated AA in an extreme pitcher’s park at the age of 19-20. That’s impressive. How does that translate to the majors? Who knows.
Yes!
I can’t stand how people think it’s a no-brainer that Heyward will actually be an upgrade. He’ only 20 years old. And how do we know he won’t be the next Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, Delmon Young, etc? Heyward should start in AAA.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
And how do we know he won’t be the next Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, Delmon Young, etc?
Because we can look at minor league numbers, and discern information from that.
Alex Gordon, in AA, at age 23, walked 12.5% of the time, struck out 23.3% of the time, and posted an insane .375 BABIP. He also had an ISO of .263.
Andy Marte, at age 20, in AA, walked 12.9% of the time, and struck out 23.3% of the time. He posted a .256 ISO.
Delmon Young, at age 19, walked a paltry 6.8% of the time (hint: still his problem), struck out 17.8% of the time. He posted a .246 ISO.
Jason Heyward, at AA, at age 19, walked 14.4% of the time, struck out only only 11.7% of the time (crazy). He’s never gotten even close to the 20% K rates these other guys boasted, and walked at a higher rate than the others, so he’s got a remarkable feel for the strike zone and ability to make contact. His .259 ISO fits right in with them.
He’s a more complete hitter than they were, and is younger than all but Delmon Young were.
You can look at the numbers and say the chances of him being a bust are much smaller than those guys but there is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect and I refuse to jinx him by declaring him one. When all is said and done, a player either pans out or he doesn’t. I think that’s what GouldisGold was referring to when he brought up those other players.
It's hard to find someone
Who’s at good a pure hitter as Heyward who’s gone on to be a bust.
Not going to say he’ll be a star at age 20, but he’ll be a top 20 player in the league in 5 years or less.
The chart at the bottom of this article helps put in perspective the type of season and type of offensive player that Heyward profiles to be.
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion, even if you are agreeing with me.
Expectations are always too high with top prospects, but that doesn’t mean that Heyward won’t be an upgrade over the alternatives or that he needs more time in AAA. I think we should see what he does in the spring and go from there. He may well be ready and be great from the get-go, we just don’t know. However, you have to give prospects a chance at some point, and if Heyward shows he is ready for a shot in the spring, we should let him have it. If he doesn’t, give him the time at AAA.
I agree.
I’d actually be a little worried if he had a Francoeur-ian into to the majors. Seeing him start at “average” leaves a lot of room for improvement, whereas Frenchy had nowhere to go but down.
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backwards in a mirror." ~George Carlin
by FineHamAbounds on Jan 26, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
eh
its just my personal opinion and something i wouldnt be surprised to see him do.
by drumzalicious on Jan 26, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Also
Wonder what his thoughts are about Vizcaino vs. Teheran
question:
if you could have any prospect in the Braves’ system not named Jason Heyward, who would you take and why?
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 26, 2010 12:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Freddie Freeman. He’s got a great glove and a sweet swing from the left side of the plate. He knows how to walk in is good at situational hitting. With his size you expect the power to develop. and he has a great head on his shoulders.
My first thought was actually Teheran, because I think his upside might be higher, but if I only get one I want the guy who’s more proven. There may be some younger guys who could be better than Freeman, but to this point, he’s the guy with the best combination of potential and actual success.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jan 26, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i think alot of that depends on what ur team looks like. the msot important prospect to the braves in freddie freeman… if he fails then the team is in a tough spot, where they need to acquire a 1B. for my money i would probably take Betancourt…i really beleive in him and he’s a rare find, an athletic big catcher who can hit at a really young age…we’ll see how his power develops, but he could be a carlos santana type prospect by the end of this year or next. I am tempted to take one of the pitchers, but since we have soo many, it doesnt seem necessary.
i think you need to better clarify what u are looking for in this question
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
ok
basically, who do you think the 2nd best prospect is in the Braves system?
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 26, 2010 12:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Freeman hands down no questions asked.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I’d also say Freeman, but I don’t think its hands down no questions asked. Teheran and/or Arodys make that a conversation
"Batting second and playing shortstop-he's Cuban. Yeah, his name's Pablo...no, eh, Yunel Escobar, sorry"
i didnt mean there shouldnt be a discussion…im merely saying ill take the kid in AA who is young for hte leauge and still playing really pretty well over the two pitchers in Low A… even with the differences in the ceilings. I understand others prefer the higher ceiling guy and thats fine, i disagree, but in this case like minds can disagree.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
ahh
okay. makes sense. Personally I agree, but for different reasons, ie. proven more already. Don’t care much for ceilings… more about what they’ve done.
"Batting second and playing shortstop-he's Cuban. Yeah, his name's Pablo...no, eh, Yunel Escobar, sorry"
Tough, tough call
I really like Freeman and think he’s a highly evolved hitter for his age. He just wasn’t able to make the jump with as much success as his running mate, Heyward. Injures have played their part with him as well.
But right now, I’ll go with Teheran. He was hitting 93 as an 18-year old. He’s still a few years away, but he’s got a huge arm for his age. He may eventually top out at 96 with his fastball, and he could end up being another Tommy Hanson for us. Looking at 2013 where he could potentially be in a rotation with Hanson, Jurrjenns, and Minor-I think our pitching is going to remain one of the most feared in the league.
The start I saw, he was working the fastball between 92 and 94 and hit 97 a few times.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
I think he’s right where he needs to be. The pitches he was throwing between 95 and 97 were totally wild, he had no control at that velocity, but when he backed off he had great control. As hard as he throws, he really is a pitcher, he has good secondary stuff and a great mental approach to the game. If he could figure out how to throw harder with control that would be great, but I don’t think that’s something necessary to his development.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jan 26, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for this bit of info. I’ve definitely heard the touches 97 comments, but this is the first I’ve really heard anyone speaking on his effectiveness at such velocities.
As he fills out a bit more, one would think he might can establish that 95-96 more effectively, but he’s obviously been pretty happy to pitch to contact so far.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
im amazed by Teheran...
because of his velocity combined with his size. I mean, he’s such a little guy yet he’s out there throwing just as hard or harder than all the big boy arms in the minors. if he can put on between 30-40 lbs of growth in the coming years, then i can see him easily controlling his fastballs at 95-96 in the zone consistently.
one thing i think Teheran needs to really work on is his change-up. perfecting that pitch is super important for his development. reports out there are that his arm is visibly slower than his fastball and that needs to change. he also doesn’t have much of a speed disparity.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 26, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think
Your confusing “Topped Out” and “Sitting At”.
Teheran the two times I saw him was SITTING AT 92-94 but TOPPED OUT at 97 in both starts.
by Jay212033 on Jan 26, 2010 2:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I meant
Where does he eventually top out? He’s just 19, so he could add a few MPH in the next couple of years.
Ok
He’s 6’2", 160ish so i’d imagine with natural progression and growth that he could easily top out at 100 similar to Feliz. Teheran is ahead of where Feliz was at this point when he was with the Braves and Teheran’s secondary stuff is far more advanced at this point as well.
+1
This is what I saw as well. I saw him pitch twice in Rome. His FB is better than most people think, he doesn’t have the K’s that a power pitcher would have yet because he pitches more to contact with his heavy, heavy sinking FB. His problem has been putting away RH hitters and that’s his slurve has not developed yet.
by Jay212033 on Jan 26, 2010 2:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That slurve was pretty dirty when I saw him. I could see how he could lose control of it, but he had it working the night I saw him.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
I saw flashes of brilliance
With his slurve but he was wild with it both times I saw him. If he can consistently get that pitch closer to the plate he’d have far more K’s than he does. He had several guys 0-2, 1-2 and couldn’t put them away because his slurve broke too far away from the plate.
hmm
i thought he was supposed to have good control of that and it was the 3rd pitch, his change up that was the problem.
by drumzalicious on Jan 27, 2010 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
I think you have
Teheran and Vizcaino mixed up.
Teheran has a plus change and his slurve is his pitch that needs the most work but has the potential to be a plus pitch.
Vizcaino has a plus-plus curve that many scouts have said is ML average right now but his change needs plenty work.
by Jay212033 on Jan 27, 2010 9:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
ah ok
good then they can help each other out.
by drumzalicious on Jan 27, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I would take Bethancourt. Mainly because of the position. Nothing against Freeman or either of our two young gun pitchers, but catchers, at least good ones, are a very scarce commodity.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Bethancourt considered a blue chip prospect
I would like to see Bethancourt challenge Brian McCann in 2012. McCann is a very good catcher, but Bethancourt might be better defensively.
by vernbickford on Jan 27, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
eh
im not sure he would take McCann’s spot. McCann hasnt even hit his prime
by drumzalicious on Jan 27, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Can I still count Schafer?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
It’s funny how Schafer is forgotten about. I’m still excited to see what he can do when he’s healthy!
by dunnytwogloves on Jan 26, 2010 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
probably not as he has exhausted his rookie status
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Well, poo on that. I am counting him.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Vizcaino
because he is a yankee’s prospect lol
by drumzalicious on Jan 26, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
huh
isnt freddie a gold glove kinda defender at 1st? have you seen that video of the HR he hit in Mississippi?
by drumzalicious on Jan 27, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
it doesnt matter how good Freeman’s defense is at first…Schafer is more valuable bc of his defense in center….now if it happens that Schafer can’t hit and Freeman rakes, then Freeman is more valuable, but right now Im taking Schafer over Freeman, mostly bc of position
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Not saying it's more important than CF...
but I think a good defensive 1B is very important. Handling bad throws, making scoops, getting to the bag quickly and not forgetting because of ADD, etc. A good 1B is crucial to a good defensive IF imo.
it absolutely is and a 1B is involved in more plays…but CF is still more valuable
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Certainly.
The gap between good and bad at CF is far wider than at 1B.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Jan 28, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
there we go that is what im getting at
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Again, I never said 1B is more important than CF
but I’d still disagree. The difference between a good and bad 1B can mean more IF hits and more errors both by the 1B himself and the other IFs. You waste outs, and most times when you give teams “extra outs” so to speak, they score runs and it costs you games. And if you won’t take a bad 1B out of the lineup, he stays a major problem for overall defense.
A bad CF on the other hand, they either become an average to bad LF quickly or there are much bigger problems with a team’s roster that improved CF defense isn’t gonna help. You have 3 OF spots, and it’s pretty rare for a team to put their worst one defensively in center.
Basically...
what’s the bigger gap for an overall team’s performance defensively:
The gap between say Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera in CF or the difference between Mark Tiexiera and Adam Dunn at 1B?
I’m slightly confused by the analogy, because neither Hunter nor Cabrera are that great or that bad in center. I’m not sure who’s the good example and who’s the bad example.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Then replace Hunter with Adam Jones...
I had trouble thinking of a particularly bad fielding CF, because as I allude to above, I think if they were that bad they get moved to RF or LF.
neither Hunter, Cabera nor Jones are that good in CF….use Mike Cameron or Franklin Gutierrez and I’ll be happy.
:)
i understand what you are saying… but there are very few bad 1B as well, they are usually just DHs int eh AL…Adam Dunn is the only one who comes to mind..there are some lower than avg guys (prince comes to mind, but no one that is horrendous at the cold corner)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
According to UZR estimates
(and I say estimates because single year UZR data is always a tad sketchy)
The differece between Franklin Gutierrez (the best CF) and Dexter Fowler (the worst) was about 50 runs. Or 5 wins.
At first base, the difference was about 12. Or 1.2 wins.
CF defense is kind of a big deal.
Of course, last year was a bit weird anyway
In 2008, the difference between the best and worst at 1B was about 24.
The difference between the top and worst in CF in 2008 was about 35.
It’s still a really big deal. Go back to 2005, and Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr., and the difference was well over 50.
I fail to believe the difference between...
Tex and Dunn at 1st was a mere 12 runs.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 29, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Dunn didn't play the whole year at first
So he had less opportunities to cost his team runs. He wasn’t even included in the 1B rankings I look at since more than half his innings were in the OF.
Dang, why didn’t I think of him???
/Sarcasm.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 27, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yup!
: )
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 29, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
I would like the Braves to take a wait and see approach on Heyward. If he proves himself in Spring Training, then give him a shot. But, I would not expect anything more than .275 BA, 350 OBP. More than that is a bonus.
Heyward's MLE from Double-A:
.292/.368/.500 – .868 OPS
Just something worth noting. That’s setting the bar pretty damned high for himself. And frankly that number makes PECOTA’s projection on him look fairly conservative, actually. That just shows you how good he really was hitting in Mississippi. After what he did to the Southern League, I’m not sitting any ceiling for Heyward this year.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
great stuff
both the questions and answers were of high quality making this spread information-packed.
i have a few things here. Firstly, i would really like to see what KG thinks is a great ST for Heyward. is it a great ST If he has bad numbers but looks like a regular out there already? or does he need to have good numbers to go along with his approach to the major league game?
also, i understand he doesn’t like comparisons for prospects, but his reasoning doesn’t make much sense to me. of course we are not expecting him to compare Bethancourt to a player at where he is now. but I would like to see a comparison for what his projections in the majors are.
the last question and answer was right on the money all around.
last thing. Gondee, i really enjoyed this clip and im looking forward to seeing the upcoming editions. i just hope and pray that our friend from AOL Fanhouse, Frankie Piliere, doesn’t have anything to do with it
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 26, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions
I think he was saying
That at his point, his projection could run anywhere from Carlos Ruiz to Mike Piazza because he’s so far away. There’s not enough information to make an effective comparison at this point.
thanks for clearing that up for me a little bit and i understand that stance, but i still expect him to have more of a concise idea for Bethancourt than that since his job is to analyze prospects.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 26, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I’m obviously not an expert like Goldstein, but I always find it hard to give a comparison for prospects too. Unless someone has already said it and I can readily agree with it, like the Freeman/Grace comp, I have a hard time making my mind work that way.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Interesting. The only place it doesn’t match is athleticism, since Lee was an amazing athlete in his heyday. Freddie will never have the speed that Lee had, but otherwise that’s a pretty good one.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Does that count as a personal attack now that he's posting here?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Jan 27, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Great questions, gondeee
I really like this guy’s prediction for Heyward, it seems to be spot on. I see Heyward putting up seasons that mirror Chipper’s career, except with Heyward having a little less home run power. Goldstein’s prediction of .277/.350/.473 for Heyward’s rookie season is almost exactly that of Chipper’s rookie line of .265/.353/.450.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 26, 2010 4:37 PM EST reply actions
Don't forget about Craig Kimbrel
Just because he is a reliever doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the top 4 or 5. I love his stuff; I think he will be a dominant closer. He reminds me of Billy Wagner.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
that all hinges on his ability to cut down the walks.
by drumzalicious on Jan 26, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Vizcaino
I can’t wait to see this kid in Rome this season. With the way they are describing his curve I really want to see it in person.
Kevin Goldstein's comments
I am suspicious of guys like Goldstein who dispense their knowledge from on high.
I know that his put downs of some players are pretty poor. Sometimes statistics don’t tell the whole story.
Players who will overcome Goldstein’s negative comments:
Lee Hyde
Craig Kimbrel
Cody Johnson
There is a difference between being negative and being a realist. Do you expect him to have nothing but glorious things to say about all of our prospects?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Being a Realist vs. Negativity
You are probably right. I liked his assessment of of the starting pitchers who will be at Gwinnett this year. He felt that none of them were much good.
But I didn’t like his negative comments about Cody Johnson, Lee Hyde and Craig Kimbrel who I consider blue chip prospects.
by vernbickford on Jan 27, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Question Marks
All three of those prospects have some serious question marks at this point in their development though. Kimbrel has control issues which become more glaring as a relief pitcher. Cody has some serious contact issues. And Hyde doesn’t have the pitch selection to be anything more than a middle-reliever. I think he’s just taking all these guys at face value.
Question Marks
Good points. I realize their deficiencies but I feel Cody Johnson is going to be a star, just like Adam Milligan. This is a gut feeling.
by vernbickford on Jan 27, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I hear
Luis Valdez is doing well in a winter league. I know he’s most likely not closer material but does anyone think he’ll be useful in the pen?
by bravesforever16 on Jan 27, 2010 7:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I was surprised he didn’t get more of a chance this past season. He could have at least been as good as Manny Acosta and probably would have been better. There are a couple of open spots at the back of the bullpen and I’d be very surprised if Luis didn’t earn one.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Luis Valdez
I would rather have Valdez than Acosta too.
by vernbickford on Jan 27, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I would rather have Juan Valdez and his donkey than Manny Acosta, but that’s a whole other topic.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
My least favorite thing about Manny is not only has he been really bad in the Majors but he’s also become a total douche since he first got called up. It’s like, how can success go to your head when you don’t have any success.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
it wouldn’t be the only thing that went to that head since then. dude’s got a hell of a noggin.
"Dum spiro spero"
by Bravely going forward on Jan 30, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
Quite well.
3-1, 2 SV 2.25 ERA, .875 WHIP, 33 K, 6 BB, 1 HR, .195 BAA in 32 IP over 22 games in the Dominican.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Jan 27, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
Woah, gotta love that WHIP.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Frankly, there's not much about that NOT to love.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Jan 28, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
because you have...
Medlen, Moylan, EOF, Saito, and Wagner as locks leaving a big battle for 2 jobs. Valdez is certainly a contender but he has competitors with Proctor, Abreu, Chavez, Dunn, and others.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 29, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
as long as we’re not forced into giving him a spot because someone gets hurt…he should win a spot by merit alone, not necessity
"Dum spiro spero"
by Bravely going forward on Jan 30, 2010 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
Eh...
It’s still winter ball. Even Greg White looks good down there.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Jan 29, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

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