What happens if Jason Heyward struggles?
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 3:35 PM EST
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PrintI had been thinking about this for a few days now and it really started to make me wonder about the 2010 season. As everyone knows, Jason Heyward is the sh*t. There's really no doubt about it. After the Braves drafted stole The Jay Hey Kid with the 14th pick in the 2007 draft, he's been a man on a mission since then. Here is just a look back on his 2008 and 2009 seasons:
2008 (Rome and Myrtle Beach):
127games .316AVG .381OBP .473SLG .854OPS 29doubles 6triples 11HRs 56RBI 51BB/78SO
2009 (Myrtle Beach, Mississippi and Gwinnett)
99games .323AVG .408OBP .555SLG .963OPS 23doubles 4triples 17HRs 63RBI 51BB/51K
Obviously, those are some incredible numbers. Add the fact that he was only 19 and 20 when he put these numbers up and you truly wonder if Jason is only human.
Whether it be in April on June, every Braves fan wants to see Heyward in the majors in 2010. The kid could easily win the Rookie of the Year and launch a hall of fame career next season. As we all rosterbate away, we all keep believing Jason is going to have great success in his first season in the Majors. While he could very easily meet all the lofty expectations, there's always cause for concern. What if he struggles? What if he can't stay healthy? I have all the confidence in the world in Jason Heyward and pray that he has 15 all-star seasons and leads us to 5 World Series titles, but you always have to examine the struggles that a 20-year old rookie could face.
As I asked above, what if Jason struggles against MLB pitching or can't stay healthy? Heyward has only played half a season above A-ball. He also only played 4 games in the AFL this fall. I'm pretty sure the pitchers in Major League Baseball are just a little better than the pitchers Jason faced in Mississippi and Myrtle Beach. You also have to worry about potential injuries. Throughout his minor league career, the only knock on The Jay Hey Kid is that he cannot stay healthy. He missed quite a few games in Myrtle Beach with an oblique injury and was removed from the AFL after a knee injury. Will he be able to withstand the rigors of a 162 game season? Here are some of the scenarios of what could happen if Jason doesn't perform or continues to be injured in 2010:
- The Braves are forced to use Melky Cabrera in RF.
- The Braves are forced to create a platoon in RF with Eric Hinske and Cabrera.
- The Braves are forced to trade the farm for an impact OF bat.
- The Braves are forced to call Jordan Schafer up, thus moving McLouth to LF and Diaz to RF.
- The Braves send Heyward back down to AAA, thus ruining his confidence and they ruin the #1 prospect in baseball's career. (not likely, but you never know what could happen.)
I don't know about you, but all of those scenarios -- with the exception of Jordan Schafer moving into CF -- look awful.
Here's the conclusion I've come to: The Braves MUST HAVE a solid back-up plan in place. Last season, we all saw how having a poor outfield offense can cripple a team (thanks, FUGA). Whether that back-up plan be a more known name like Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye, or a lesser Free Agent such as Xavier Nady, Jonny Gomes or Randy Winn, the Braves need to take care of the situation soon. This team has all the parts to make a deep run in 2010. Do we really wanna risk losing all of it by not having a solid back-up plan if Jason Heyward struggles?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I think Heyward sitting out as much as he has is partially a product of the organization wanting to be cautious with him. There’s no need to press him to play in the minors if he’s slightly banged up, because all he’s there for is to further his development. Sure, winning MiLB teams are nice, but the main goal is to churn out prospects.
And if he does struggle, I don’t think sending him back down would ruin his confidence. Listen to his interviews, this is a very mature young man. He’s not like Francoeur, who blamed his issues on everybody else. If he needs more work, I don’t think he’ll have issues coming to terms with that and working on it.
Oh, and I think the McLouth-Schafer-Diaz outfield would be our best bet IF Heyward struggles.
Which is why signing Damon is a good idea. Allows Heyward to spend time in AAA to see if he is really ready. And if he is, move him up and see what you can get for Damon, Diaz, or Melky.
by Bobby Cocks on Jan 16, 2010 4:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
good Idea
If the price is right….I am sure Damon’s leadership in the club house can go a long way….Heyward would be best if called up May/june…IMHO
All players struggle … sometimes. Nearly all players have health problems … sooner or later.
So I can’t get worked up into a panic because Heyward may, perhaps, possibly, maybe have some challenge on one or the other of these issues at some point in 2010. The Braves have good depth and should be fine unless Yunel goes down with a season ending injury – he would truly be hard to replace.
Heyward
he wouldn’t be the first rookie to struggle. the move up to the show is a
learning process. some rookies ‘get away’ early on like francouer
until the pitchers find the holes. while there is no such thing as a lock,
Heyward might find himself pressing and if this becomes chronic a trip
to Gwinnett is what would happen. 2010 or 2011 Heyward will bring the love.
in my view folks have underestimated melky’s skills. in the back third of
the order, away from the NY press I see him as a more than decent piece.
there is good depth
in the OF with Mclouth, Diaz, Hinske with infante able to provide some
credible reps and melky able to play all the OF positions.
Glaus and Chip are in my view the keys re will they stay healthy and
avoid lengthy slumps
If he struggles, we can’t send him down, since he would leave us with no black players, and that is illegal.
"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson
In the event that he were sent down Joe Thurston would immediately be called up to meet the requirements.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
are we sure heywards not bahamian?
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 16, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
in this country
if you look black you are black, to people.
by HansonTheGod on Jan 16, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
So would that not cover...
most latin american players? they certainly don’t look white.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 16, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
i thought we were teasing the other blog from earlier….lol
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 17, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
My worst case scenario for Heyward (next year) is a 120 game, .800 OPS, gold glove caliber right fielder. He could also play significantly better than that too. My prediction is an OPS in the .850 area.
As for the health issues, that is my biggest concern, but as others have alluded to, I think while he has had some nagging issues, the reason he has missed as much time as he has is because of the Braves being extremely cautious. During the course of a season in Atlanta I think he might play through or miss significantly less time with those injuries.
There are a couple of points that need to be made here.
1. While Heyward has had a bunch of nagging injuries, remember that the Braves (quite correctly) have been incredibly cautious with him. In a major league pennant race, he probably plays through some of them. (And for the record, the AFL injury was a butt muscle strain, not a knee injury.)
2. Be careful what back-up plan you seek. Since there is no DH in the NL and defense matters, Gomes and Dye, due to their horrible (i.e. well worse than FUGA) defense are probably worse regulars than Melky. Nady could be a reasonable backup plan, but we don’t know if he can play OF right now (or at the start of the season) due to the TJ surgery he had last year. If he is healthy it would make sense, but nobody really knows, which is probably why he remains unsigned. Winn can certainly play solid defense, but he is on the downside of his career and fell off the cliff offensively last year. If that is all he has left, Melky is far better. That leaves Damon. He is tricky. Unlike the others, he is unlikey to sign to be anything but the everyday leftfielder. That moves Diaz to right and hurts the defense in both corner OF spots as Diaz is better. Damon is certainly a better hitter than Melky (the default back-up option), but with the defense difference at both corner spots, the difference is not that much. If Damon’s price falls significantly, he might make sense just because of the bargain, but beyond that, I am not sure. This leads me to idea 3 below.
3. Given the total of upside and defense, the best idea, to me, of the players out there if Heyward struggles is to let Heyward work through the struggles. Even if he is OPSing around .700 or slightly lower, his defense is clearly the best of the available options in right field. Obviously, if Heyward gets hurt, this isn’t an option, but if it isn’t a major injury, Melky and Hinske can fill in for a few weeks—-that’s what back-up outfielders are for. If there is a major injury, the Braves have enough prospects to make a trade and hopefully the budget to take on the salary of whoever we get. Remember that the last time we had an uber-prospect (two time Baseball America minor league player of the year) who we brought up to play at the age of 20, we just let him play and while he struggled to the tune of .231/.329/..416 (.745 OPS, 93 OPS+), it worked for both Andruw and the Braves.
4. Yes, it would be great to have guys who would be above-average regulars as back-ups at every position. Given the Braves’s salary constraints, that just won’t happen. Since we don’t know whether we will need OF help or IF help (Glaus and Chipper aren’t exactly pictures of health and Prado is not certain to perform), it seems silly to spend what money we have left before the season to get an above-average back-up that we might not end up needing.
In sum, unless a great bargain falls in our lap, I would prefer to go with what we have and still have some salary flexibility during the season when someone inevitably gets hurt or fails to perform. That lets us target our needs better.
Point 4 is spot on...
…While I also think we need a back up plan, to me, one is already is in place. That is what Hinkse and Melky are for; I know they’re not going to set the world on fire, but they are BACKUPS!!! I’ll echo your sentiments; we can’t go spending the rest of our money on a contingency plan when a) we already have one, and b) we don’t even know if Heyward will be hurt. Everyone needs to sit back, relax, and let the season take care of itself.
by High and Tight on Jan 17, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
exactly. its not like were completely finished if he struggles some. Plus we do have slight money for midseason
"Ain't no sense worrying: If you have no control over something, ain't no sense worrying about it -you have no control over it anyway. If you do have control, why worry? So either way, there ain't no sense worrying."
-Mickey Rivers
I rec'd this
only because it’s thought provoking and I think brings something realistic that not a lot of us have even considered.
Great idea for a fanpost and well executed.
All that said, I hope you are wrong.
Oh trust me
I hope I’m wrong too. I’d love for a ROY season with a .300AVG and 25HRs.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 6:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think that you are overstating how important Heyward will be to our success this year
Good pitching and a solid 1-6 is what we’re really relying on.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
True, but if the lower part of the lineup isn’t producing, we’re in trouble. Our 1-6 isn’t that great.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 6:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
if healthy
our 1-6 may not be on the same level as some teams but combined with our pitching its pretty darn good
by drumzalicious on Jan 17, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
If Heyward struggles....
I am quitting my job and going on a stripper binge, because clearly the apocalypse is at hand.
Actually in all seriousness, I agree with Nick. If Heyward puts up an OPS north of .725 or so, hes gonna be a HUGE improvement over last years FYF black hole in right. I really consider any solid production from Heyward as a bonus. That said, Im on record as predicting a .900 area OPS for my boy from the GATE.
But good idea… this is an important issue which I had never even considered
www.takeyourskirtofftombrady.com
by Sid Bream's Moustache on Jan 16, 2010 7:43 PM EST reply actions
along with
the signing of Frank McGriff
by HansonTheGod on Jan 16, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
but that’s the attitude i fear the Braves will have as well.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 11:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Being Bobby’s last year, I think Wren wants to help to end his career with at least one more division title. Heyward can make that happen, and I do think they will take a gamble and hope he can produce like he’s capable of. Because honestly, if Heyward can produce somewhere in the range of 20HRs this year, that will really be a boost to our lineup. Especially if Glaus can protect Chipper and Escobar and McCann continue to improve.
So yeah it is risky, and they might need to have that attitude in order to give this team a chance to win. We’ll see what happens.
It might be better to be safe than sorry tho.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 11:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I honestly don’t think Wren is going to gamble on the future just so we can send Bobby off in style. Yeah it’s his last season and he’s a great guy, but I see Wren as more of a big picture kind of guy who doesn’t really have much of a tie with Bobby.
I think Wren wants to win
He’s not going to completely mortgage the future, but one year of cheap Heyward control later isn’t worth leaving this team out of the playoffs, if that’s the difference. Wren should realize he’s got a fringe playoff team here, so every move that makes the Braves better, just slightly, will pay dividends later.
I think Braves fans will start coming back to the stadium if the Braves put a better product on the field. There’s your bottom line.
We gotta face facts here
If Jason Heyward struggles, we could be in a lot of trouble.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 11:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The facts are: (i) the Braves have strongly bolstered the roster and now have a good deal of OF depth; (ii) assuming Heyward is the opening day RFer, he will be batting near the bottom of the order and thus will not be relied upon for major offensive production; and (iii) he is an absolutely premier prospect who should be a long-term star for us, is ML ready or very, very near ready, and has to be and obviously will be given the opportunity in the bigs at some point quite soon.
Also, the idea that we could be in trouble if … applies in dozens of different scenarios; such as: if Glaus, Hudson, JJ, Heap, Yunel, etc., sustain a serious, season-ending injury; if Chipper, Nate, etc., utterly fail to produce offensively; and so on.
cavebird’s analysis, above, is right on the money — we wait and look at affordable options if and when they develop and in the meanwhile, maintain some payroll flexibility. We know there will be sellers in July and if we’re in a position to deal and take on more salary, there should be an excellent shot at not only filling whatever the need may actually be at that point, but adding another major contributor who will help us in the long-term.
haha na that picture is still sick enough to stay.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Well if they do call up Schafer i would hope they do an OF of Diaz/McLouth/Schafer
Also if Heyward does struggle just realize he will be the only player on our roster that isnt giving us an OPS north of .800 except maybe Prado not to mention he will be hitting at the bottom of the order.
One thing people dont seem to pay attention to is last year in ST Heyward was 19 and pretty much carried his own weight. He struck out 10 times in 40 AB’s which would translate to about 130 k’s in 500ish AB’s which isn’t too bad for a rookie. Also had a pretty good OBP and of course hit for a good average (.300). So I’m going to go on a limb and suggest that he has improved since then and would prob put up a line of .290/.370/.450 if given the chance to come in at the beginning of the season as our Right Fielder.
One thing that has always stood out to me about him is how he adjusts to the leagues very well at every level. He seems to start off a little slowish but then picks it up as he adjusts to the league and i have no doubt he could do the same in Atlanta.
Why would Schafer not be in center? Everyone thinks he’s a plus fielder there, way better than McLouth.
Also, remember when Heyward went up to AA, he absolutely raked for about 100 ABs and then had probably/hopefully the first and last slump of his life. So it is really hard to tell whether he needs more time or not.
it was explaned above
Nate is a good enough CF on his own and we would do better defensively keeping nate in CF and putting Schafer in RF
by drumzalicious on Jan 18, 2010 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
how come?
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
So why not let Schafer start the year up?...
Does anyone know when he is healthy enough to start swinging?
But, if Schafer starts up, you’ve got a couple months giving him another chance, and can still swap him back with Heyward if he’s not getting enough at bats or playing well enough once that service clock has been delayed enough. He doesn’t have to start and can get lots of work with TP (or anyone else) in the cages on his days off. Melky can fill in as 4th OF with McLouth in LF and Diaz in RF.
If not Schafer, then who? Gregor Blanco? We have few other OF candidates besides utility type IFs in Mitch Jones, Eric Hinske, Omar Infante, Brooks Conrad, and Joe Thurston.
This
I never understood why so many of us here think Schafer needs a full year at AAA. The fact is he has nothing to prove against AAA pitching, his issue is whether he can hit MLB pitching. The best place to do that is … in the Majors. Granted, if he can’t get it going in ST then by all means send him down until he can knock the cobb webs off, but leaving him down all year is not the answer.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Am I the only one who thinks Schafer is going to be a bust?
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 17, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
I dont think so yet
I’ll give him 2 more seasons in AAA and MLB before i call him a success or a bust.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
For me,
Schafer has too many variables to assume that he will be a Major League success. First, there is his strikeout total in the majors. Even in April where he had his good month, he struck out over 1/3 of the time. Another thing I don’t like is that his walk ratio decreased significantly in the 2nd month of playing, and yeah he was injured, but I don’t understand why an injury would affect his BB total. To me, it looked like the league adjusted to him and he didn’t adjust back. On top of that, he was using illegal substances in the minors. Who knows for how long, and how it affected his performance? Then there is his attitude, which doesn’t seem to be like Heyward’s, it seems to be immature and not ML ready. Of course, that last one is just an opinion.
As bad as I want to see Schafer tearing it up in the majors, I don’t see it happening. He just has too many knocks on him, unlike Heyward, where the only thing we can come up with against him is that he may have slight nagging injuries.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 17, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
hope for the best, plan for the worst
is usually what I do.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
This
is the rationale of a sane, well-prepared man. I live by the same, but my whole family calls me a pessimist for it. I say baloney- by that rationale you’re never disappointed or caught with your pants down, but you can always be pleasantly surprised.
The only reason I bring up that I think Schafer will be a bust is because a lot of people around here assume that he can be relied on to be our starting CF in the near future. I don’t think most people have considered the idea that Schafer might not turn into anything.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 17, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
There was a discussion about this topic a few days ago. Nobody but Jordan really knows if he took HGH or not, and he denies it. It basically comes down to personal outlook, whether you believe and side with him or not. For me the steroid argument doesn’t work, as his numbers from 2008 were better than the numbers he put up in 2007, supposedly using the drug. Either way, and I’m not accusing you of saying this, the argument that Jordan was only good because of steroids is just not true.
About his attitude, towards the opening of Spring Training, there were a ton of stories about Schafer and his work ethic. He used to be a show off but he was humbled by the steroids controversy and ditched his sparkly red glove for ST. Matt Diaz also became his mentor and all reports called him one of, if not the hardest working players at ST.
Well I’m glad to hear his attitude has improved. But I must warn you, when it comes to prospects, I’m quite a skeptic.
IMO, it’s safe to say that he did HGH. Of course he’s going to deny it, because they don’t test for it, and if he’s lying, no one would ever find out. The worst part to me is that his excuse was “hanging out with the wrong crowd.” He could’ve come out and proved that he didn’t take it, but he didn’t, he served his suspension and kept quiet.
Assuming he did take it, who knows how long he was taking it, and how long the effects of HGH last? It very well could’ve helped him through the rest of the season. I guess in order for me to feel any different than I do now, I’m gonna have to see a few hundred AB’s in AAA with some good production from Schafer before I call him our CF of the future.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 17, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Congrats! You get be a massive skeptic. You also get to believe anything you choose to believe, regardless of whether there is any reason or no reason for whatever the belief is.
But asserting its safe to say he did HGH when there is no evidence, zero, none, nada, is pretty damn unfair. He was not arrested nor was he charged with any criminal act – although if he had been, he would have enjoyed a presumption of innocence.
Also, to say he could have proven he didn’t take it, is seriously stupid. Proof a negative is essentially impossible.
Yeah
I mean, he can’t retroactively get blood-tested during the suspected period. That is, of course, assuming Einstein is correct and that time-travel truly is impossible. If Einstein was wrong, then you’re right, all he has to do is go back in time and willingly submit to weekly blood tests an dmake the results publicly available.
?
How is my assumption that he did HGH based on no reason? How about the Department of Investigations investigated him and obviously found something out and then SUSPENDED HIM. If you seriously think he got suspended for nothing that’s crazy to me.
And the whole “innocent before proven guilty” deal doesn’t always apply in real life. In court it does. Barry Bonds was never proven to have taken HGH, so are you one of those that will presume him innocent before he’s proven guilty?
And yes, he could have proven he didn’t take it. As soon as he was called out on illegal substance abuse, he could have taken the necessary tests at the time of the accusation. I never said he should take tests now to prove he was innocent, did I?
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 18, 2010 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
And yes, he could have proven he didn’t take it. As soon as he was called out on illegal substance abuse, he could have taken the necessary tests at the time of the accusation.
Oh buggery. If only there was a test for HGH. Sigh.
/facepalm
I believe there are tests for HGH
but baseball doesn’t use them, because it requires blood work to be done and the accuracy is questioned by some. I’m not saying Schafer simply could’ve shown baseball he didn’t take HGH to get his suspension revoked, all I’m saying is that if I’m falsely accused of something, I would take the necessary blood tests and show them to the public eye to at least clear my name and restore my reputation.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 19, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
A few quick points:
If a test is not scientifically recognized as reliable and accurate, it ain’t worth a damn and won’t clear or restore nothing with nobody.
Furthermore, even if a test is, generally, recognized as reliable and accurate, it still has to be taken at a relevant point in time for the results to be meaningful.
So, the idea that Schafer could have taken any available HGH test weeks or months after one or more alleged uses of HGH and thereby proven anything at all about the specific allegations against him, again just seems without much, if any, basis in reality.
From our nation’s newspaper of record, the New York Times, last week:
There is no acceptable test in major league baseball for human growth hormone, hence no one has any realistic idea of who is using performance-enhancing drugs.
At the time of his suspension which was indeed for use of human growth hormone in violation of the minor league drug prevention and treatment program, ESPN quoted a spokesman in Selig’s office, who specifically acknowledged that Schafer had not actually been tested:
Asked how Major League Baseball determined that Schafer used HGH, Mike Teevan, MLB’s manager of media relations, said,“We have non-analytic means of identifying players. He falls under that category.”
So, in the absence of any scientific evidence in support of the suspension, I’m open – in all fairness – to the possibility that it was in error, an incorrect charge and thus substantively unjustified. Although you may be unaware based on your life experiences, such things do actually occur in real life with disturbing frequency. I’m open to the possibility that Schafer’s repeated on the record denials (such as here and here were actually truthful, particularly so since he forthrightly acknowledged that he had put himself in a questionable situation and accepted responsibility for doing so.
In sum, the fact that the suspension was evidently not based entirely on nothing does not exclude the possibility that it was unwarrented.
agreed
he could’ve been falsely accused. I’m not ruling that out, because it does happen. I guess I just happen to lean the other way that he can deny it with no fear of being proven otherwise.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 19, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
His problem is
He spent half a season trying to swing with a bum wrist, and he needs good bit of actual work against live pitching to get his fundamentals straightened out, and to prove that he has recovered. Given just how disastrous his batting problems were, he might take a while to regain his confidence too-he’s a young kid and we don’t want to see him torn down.
This is why pretty much everyone wants to see get at least half a season’s worth of games at AAA where he can get regular playing time without pressure to perform.
Schafer has had a total of 38 plate appearances at AAA
It’s not like he has mastered the level. Given all the time off, I would assume it would be a good idea to give him some AAA at-bats to work out the kinks, as Bronn stated. For the same reason, I disagree with Mr. Sanchez’s idea that we can start with Schafer up and “he doesn’t have to start.” Schafer really needs AB’s, so having him up and on the bench would be the worst idea.
I think Jordan should spend most (if not all) of the 2010 season in the minor leagues…as long as he doesnt go nuts and hit .400 or something. If he really turns it on, then we have a bunch of quality ML outfielders that we could deal.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
So mvhs, cave, then who do you suggest as 4th OF...
if Heyward starts the year in AAA as well as Schafer, who do you want backing up Diaz, McLouth, and Cabrera? Would you be comfortable with Hinske, Infante, and two more utility type IFs that can play in the OF, or with Blanco?
We better not start the season with Cabrera starting in RF. IMHO, the Braves need to decide now if they’re going to start Jason Heyward in Atlanta or not. If they aren’t, we need to sign another OF…immediately.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 3:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree here.
That’s why you have a fourth OF. So he can start when necessary, whether that be at the start of the year or in the middle of the year after an injury. Signing another OF means, I assume, signing another starting OF. That gives us three unless you don’t consider Diaz and McLouth starting OF’s. Then, when Heyward comes up doesn’t depend on Heyward, it depends on how are starting OF’s are doing and whether they get hurt.
I am not sure why you are so afraid of Melky starting for a month or two. He provides league average defense and offense. Nothing special, but not as bad as two of our starting OF’s from the first three months of last year.
And the idea of deciding on whether Heyward will start now is just stupid. The idea is that he will be up when he is ready. He’ll either show he is ready in spring training or he won’t. There is no way to know that now.
Of course, if we don’t bring in another OF, Heyward’s competition for the job in spring training is Melky. Obviously, that gives him a fair chance—-he just has to outplay a league average type player. If we bring in another starter, that leaves Heyward no chance of getting the job barring an injury.
I guess I just don’t see the problem of having some combination of Melky and Hinske playing right for a month or two if it is best for the development of Heyward and Schafer. Heyward, for one, is far too valuable a commodity to have to make a decision on his development prematurely just because of an irrational fear of Melky Cabrera.
but not as bad as two of our starting OF’s from the first three months of last year.
you mean 3? Our quality starting OFs were half a season of Diaz (92), and half a season of McLouth (around 80). Anderson, French, and Church were all below average overall imo.
and Schafer...
our OF last year was Anderson (2/3), Diaz (1/2), French (1/2), McLouth (1/2), Schafer (1/2), Church (1/3).
Hinske can play the corner OF spots fairly well
And if neither Heyward nor Schafer are on the roster coming out of spring training, I suspect it’s because there’s a non-roster invitee that wins a roster spot. I can’t speculate who that might be, but I suspect he’d be a Reid Gorecki type-limited utility with the bat but can play good defense at all three OF spots. Of course, the only reason I see not to start the season with Heyward is if there’s some lingering health concern, where perhaps they want to ease him back into regular playing time.
I understand very well the implications of super-two arbitration, but the Braves are going to need to lock this guy up long term anyway. Chipper’s contract is coming off in two years, (Derek Lowe in 3, assuming he’s not traded) so by the time Heyward is closing in on free agency, we should have the money to make him a big offer to remain in Atlanta.
Right now, Heyward is probably a better hitter than Melky Cabrera, so two months of Melky starting in RF for us in place of Jay-Hey could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making them. I’d rather get back to the playoffs this year than have one more cheap season of Jason Heyward later; if the Braves want to make more money, they should begin by making their way back to the playoffs.
The team needs to put its strongest possible team on the field from day one. I think this is what the Braves will do and suspect this will mean Heyward will be our starting RFer.
Of course, this is what ST is for … to let the players compete for jobs and the professional staff make measured judgments about who are ready and able to make the biggest contributions.
I completely agree...
…and if Heyward does show he needs more AAA time, we have league average type guys to hold for fort. I think what we have works well—-it doesn’t just give Heyward the job, but it also doesn’t give him an impossible situation to win the job. His main competition are guys that are better as bench guys, but who are solid major league players nevertheless.
And the question is still...
stand pat (i.e. no Gabe Gross or Johnny Damon or Randy Winn, etc.) who is the 4th OF with Cabrera, Diaz, and McLouth? I’d assume the competition would be between Blanco, Schafer, Heyward, and Mitch Jones (and Brandon)? In that competition, I’d think Schafer has some of the best odds of coming out of spring on top.
Except that you don't use top prospects as fourth OF's.
You want Schafer and Heyward to play every day somewhere for their development. Yes, if neither wins a starting job, they are probably the best fourth OF candidates, but you don’t do that; they are too valuable for their potential.
If both Heyward and Schafer start the season in AAA, I don’t see a problem with the fourth OF spot. Assuming Melky is more or less starting in right, we can still do okay with Hinske as the fourth OF. He can’t play CF, but with two guys who can play CF already there, we don’t need a fourth OF who can play center—-when McLouth has a day off, Melky shifts to center and Hinske can play right.
In that situation, we could use a real fifth OF on the roster, since Hinske is also the primary back-up at first and third. That role could easily be filled by Blanco. He can’t hit, but he can be used as a defensive replacement and to pinch-run. Mitch Jones could be used if we want more of a hitter. Yes, again, Schafer and Heyward are better options, but you don’t stall their development by having them sit on the major league bench.
I wouldn't think either would sit...
I’d think they’d at least play 4-5 games per week with Melky getting 3-4 per week between all 3 spots.
If they are getting more playing time than Melky...
…Melky is the fourth OF. Still, I would prefer at least five starts a week for their development. I would also want to avoid a platoon type role for either—-they need to learn to hit both LH and RH pitchers in the majors.
I was thinking about this the other day…Should the Braves give Heyward an Evan Longoria contract? It worked out incredibly well for the Rays, but not exactly for Evan Longoria. Would Heyward sign a contract like that? Maybe, maybe not but I think it would be a great idea for the Braves to offer it now.
I
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 4:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm not exactly sure what Longoria's contract was
But I’d like to see Jason play for at least one full season before we lock him up for a long time.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 4:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It is 6 years, 17.5 mil guaranteed, with a one year club option for 2014 and a two year club option for 2015 and 2016 that would make the deal worth 44 million over 9 years. They signed him to it a few days after his debut IIRC.
really? why did longoria sign that?
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 17, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Longoria signed it because...
…if he suffered a career ending injury the next day, he was still guaranteed 17.5 million dollars. The option years for the free agency time are not exactly cheap ones. It makes sense for both sides and we did something similar with McCann. I agree that we should go the McCann route, however, and do the signing after a year, rather than right away.
i guess im just so used to paying hampton for nothing that 17.5 guaranteed seems so low :)
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 17, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
What if, What if, What if C'mon guys.
Why don’t we wait for spring training games to start before we start being so negative. Enjoy the moves we have made and Heyward is going to be great.
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jan 17, 2010 4:49 PM EST reply actions
i'm not being negative
I’m being logical and am aware of what could happen if Jason Heyward isn’t the Rookie of the Year stud we all expect him to be.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
If Heyward shows he can't cut it...
…it would be nice to have the flexibility to do something about it mid-season. Why spend what little money we have left now when we don’t know where the hole could be. It could be poor performance from the OF, it could be an injury to Chipper or Glaus or Wagner or whoever. It could be Prado sucking. We just really don’t know and I don’t see any great idea out there now that is worth losing the flexibility. If we sign Damon now and have no money left, that will bite us if Heyward is good and we have a problem with the infield, but no money left to solve that problem.
We release him.
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
and then the Royals and Diamondbacks will have a bidding war over him!
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
Melky for Callaspo would free up what, $2.6mil? I don’t a ton about Callpso, but my first reaction is yes, I would. It appears Callapso would make a decent bench middle infielder and could be insurance if Prado can’t hack it as the everyday 2B, and I think we could sign Xavier Nady to a one year deal with the money we would be saving. That would give us a solid offensive outfield, and allow us to start Heyward at AAA if that appears to be whats best for him. The outfield defense would be average at best and I’m the first to admit Nady is a huge injury risk.
It really depends on what the Braves are going to do with Heyward. If the Braves think Heyward is ready for the everyday job in RF, then we really don’t need another veteran OF and Melky would be more useful to us in the 4th outfielder spot, even at his salary. But if the Braves feel Heyward is best served getting some time in AAA, then our starting outfield is weak, and we need another bat. I’m not a Damon advocate, but I think Nady could be a risk worth taking as our starting LF. Can’t be any worse than the gamble we’re taking on Glaus, right? Nady, McLouth, Diaz as a starting outfield ain’t bad. Infante can play center in a pinch, Hinske can play the corners. If we lose somebody to injury, we call up the player that best fills the need at the time.
Crap, I just rosterbated in a non-rosterbation thread. Sorry.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
I don't think that Callaspo is major league minimum anymore...
…I think he is a first year arbitration guy this year and probably will get a little over $1 million, so we’d be saving about 2 million instead of 2.5 million.
Callaspo would be very useful, and I don’t necessarily not like that trade. However, if we do that and bring in a different OF, I would be a bit leery about Nady—-I haven’t heard that he can throw or play the outfield at all right now due to the TJ surgery he had. If he can show he is healthy and can play the OF, that would make it different. Still, I would prefer someone who can play center field because Infante ain’t pretty out there. Maybe Winn. The issue with deciding whether the Braves think Heyward is better served spending time in AAA is that they won’t make that decision until near the end of spring training. Of course, trades are made at the end of spring training all the time, usually with guys who are out of options, so maybe we can find something that way.
Oh yeah, Infante is a 1 or 2 game fill in at best in CF, and I didn’t mean to imply any different. An injury to McLouth would require us to call WeaponX back up to the bigs fast and hope that the wrist really was the problem last year.
I don’t know about Callaspo’s contract, turns out I was looking at his 2009 figure. But I also don’t know what Nady would cost us. Some writers were speculating that the Yankees were considering him as a lower cost option to bringing Damon back, but Nady is a Boras client, so I really have no idea what he could really get this year, but I expect he should get at least FUGA money.
I’m not sure why exactly I’ve gotten hung up on Nady this year. I was the same way last offseason with Dunn. I guess I should have been calling for us to make a run at Jason Bay too and try to bring the old Pirates outfield back together.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
If we were signing an OF after dealing Melky...
I’d look towards guys similar, and that’s not Nady. Gabe Gross, Rick Ankiel, and Randy Winn off the top of my head would probably be the choices in that backup/4th OF role as guys similar to Melky defensively.
Agreed.
The post on MLBTR today commented that Nady “should” be ready (according to him) to play by spring training. I think that’s why he has not gotten any interest. His value is tied to playing the OF as well as 1B and if the arm is not ready, he has to sign for the minimum and hope he can play. We’ll have to wait and see on him. If he becomes majorleague minimum cheap, then maybe we should pounce, but not before.
Realistically
If we were to put Heyward on the trade market, who would be the best player(s) we could get?
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 7:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Come on fellas lets not turn this into a holy war.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
If Heyward was made available, we could probably get...
…Adrian Gonzalez. That’s probably what it would take to get him, too. However, given that the Braves don’t have an unlimited budget, it makes no sense for us to give up the possibility of great free years from Heyward.
/thinks about Jason Heyward in 5 years
BOING.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 17, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
then you will see the Four Horsemen riding toward you from the horizon
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Jan 18, 2010 2:00 PM EST reply actions
Nice sig
“Do we really have to be here?”
“Why Allen? Whats wrong?”
“Well just not this close. I’m not supposed to be 200 feet within a school…or a Chucky Cheese.”
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 18, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
that’s how I managed to stay single all these years.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 18, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Indiana Jones wears a satchel
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 18, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
ONE HUNDREDTH!
I know ima badass.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
Hating Milky as our starting RF is not an irrational fear. He is crap as a everyday corner OF. Unless having a sub 400 slug% is acceptable from that spot? If so we should have just kept Jeff.
Jeff just signed...
…for $5 million. And who said Melky was the starting right fielder?
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