The Offense According to Bill James...
by ryan c on Jan 14, 2010 5:22 PM EST
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Some of these numbers are a little skewed due to certain players receiving more/less opportunity, but the ABs check out for a season pretty well (5539 last year compared to 5400 estimated, with pitchers getting 350 of those ABs):
Player AB HR RBI BA
Mclouth: 528 20 67 .263
Prado 423 7 47 .303
Chipper 459 21 78 .296
Glaus 529 28 91 .248
Mccann 522 24 100 .291
Escobar 539 12 70 .302
Diaz 325 10 40 .303
Hinske 154 6 23 .248
Heyward 542 17 78 .303
Melky 506 11 62 .278
Infante 263 4 30 .278
M. Jones 357 17 46 .227
Diaz and Prado are both factored in as platoon players (add 100 at-bats each), and Mitch Jones and Melky receive far too many at-bats (subtract 100 at-bats each). If this were last year, 177 total homeruns would have been good enough for 4th in the league.
For those rosterbating with Damon in for Melky, add 3-4 extra homeruns and maybe 1-2 from pitchers. 180-184 dingers would be sweet. So....good enough? Satisfied with the projection?
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BA, HR, and RBI?
Haven’t we moved on from using exclusively these to judge a player’s value? Couldn’t we get something with a higher correlation to scoring runs, like OBP or SLG?
Don't get me wrong...
…its cool of you to do this, just saying there’s better ways of showing offensive output. We have increased our team’s power though.
Agreed.
Would be interested in seeing OBP and runs scored.
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backwards in a mirror." ~George Carlin
by FineHamAbounds on Jan 14, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
OPS Update
Mclouth-.800
Prado- .787
Chipper-.905
Glaus-.817
Mccann-.873
Escobar- .813
Matty D- .829
Melky- .747
Heyward-.836
Infante-.723
Hinske- .777
Ross- .762
Mitch Jones-.729
for shits and giggles…
Johnny Damon- .785
Xavier Nady-.806
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
what?
that is way too low for heyward, try 1.203
by BravesRaleigh on Jan 14, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
My proprietary calculations are showing something in the neighborhood of a .392/.475/.730 for Heyward.
It’s science.
www.takeyourskirtofftombrady.com
by Sid Bream's Moustache on Jan 14, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
You must be a pessimist. Why else would you use his worst-case-scenario numbers?
Wren Be Praised.
WWFWD?
by !Vive la Francoeur! on Jan 14, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Try 5.000
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
by TradeAndruw on Jan 14, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Bill James is generally optimistic with his projections
It’s not that he’s stretching for any individual player, but there tends to be a ton of “Sunny-side” for pretty much everyone, so that if you were to add up all the offense, the league as a whole would set new records.
CHONE, on the other hand, always strikes me as a major downer. It seldom seems to give starters enough playing time, especially if they were once in a platoon role, or had one season 3 years ago that was marked with injury. Don’t get me wrong, the principles are sound, but there’s plenty of head scratchers in there, Chipper Jones included. Chipper’s always tough because he’s walking a fairly unmapped aging curve.
So right now, I’m just not sure which projection system I like.
more of a reference...
to our lack of power last year. replacing garrett with melky/diaz and francoeur/diaz with heyward, the obp and ops will rise considering everyone else (aside from laroche) is staying put.
offense=power, and this was more to do with the collection of middle of the road hr guys to fill a roster rather than a few light hitters with 1 big bopper.
i will try to do an ops post as well later. didnt have time or the tools today during lunch to extend this to ops.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Some scattered thoughts, in no particular order:
1. I’d be thrilled with that rookie year out of Heyward.
2. I find it odd that he has McCann hitting the hallowed 100 RBI mark as a C who will miss time, yet Glaus doesn’t in the same number of at-bats (and you gotta figure that barring injury he’d get closer to 550-575 ABs).
3. I don’t buy that Escobar will have damn near a carbon copy of his previous season- not even marginal improvement?
4. Diaz will get more than 325 ABs unless he crashes into the milWALLkee again.
5. If Melky gets that many ABs something else in the OF has gone horribly wrong. Switching his and Diaz’s AB numbers seems more accurate.
6. ^That being said, I also think Hinske will get more than those paltry ABs in left and at first. I think Melky’s AB estimate is WAY high, cuz he’ll basically be backing up Nate and Heyward unless Diaz/Hinske/Glaus goes down. 150-200 tops unless someone gets hurt.
7. HELL YES to that season out of Mitch Jones. So long Norton, and don’t let the door hit ya…
I agree with some, not others.
1. Completely agreed.
2. I think the idea is that McCann will have more opportunities for RBI this year with OBP monsters Chipper and Glaus hitting in front of him. As for Glaus, I think the lower AB total is because if he plays the full season, he will end up walking 80-100 times.
3. I’d be thirlled with a carbon copy season from Escobar. I don’t think he has much more power than he has shown and the RBI have nowhere to go but down after the RISP numbers Escobar put up last year.
4. Agreed.
5. Agreed.
6. I disagree here. I think Melky will back up all three OF spots, with Hinske only playing OF occasionally. I would guess Melky gets 350-400 AB’s or possibly more if he is starting in right for the first two months of the season.
7. It would be nice, but I doubt Mitch Jones gets any significant playing time.
and I agree
with all of your points.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 15, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
3. I don’t buy that Escobar will have damn near a carbon copy of his previous season- not even marginal improvement?
Whatever happened to that guy who fought me tooth and nail when I remarked how I thought Yunel’s 2009 would look more like his 2007 than his 2008? I’d love to hear his thoughts now.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 18, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
The AB situation...
is explained in the paragraph below the data.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
are those heywards AAA numbers? just kidding!!
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 15, 2010 4:37 PM EST reply actions
read it wrong...
i wasnt suggesting prado is platooning. quite the opposite. bill james has him only getting 420 at-bats this year. bill james, for some reason, thinks prado will get less at-bats.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
That may be true...
…but we don’t have anyone behind him, so, barring injury, he plays fulltime regardless of whether he sucks.
lol
knowing the Braves we would prob go through everyone in our system and our bench first.
by drumzalicious on Jan 16, 2010 1:55 AM EST up reply actions
this
if not prado at 2B, then who? Infante? Brooks Conrad? That is what turned people off of dumping KJ because they wanted a backup plan if Prado didn’t keep it up.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 16, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
That's the problem...
…and there was no good solution. Obviously, the Braves decided that KJ was not going to start. Whether that was right or not, I’ll let other people argue. If we tendered KJ a contract, that is a lot of money to pay a back-up second baseman. However, letting him go left us with not so great back-up options. Not an easy situation. Of course, with the Braves payroll, we can’t really afford good hitting options at back-up MI; guys who can play MI and hit cost too much money.
i wouldn’t necessarily mind infante…
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 16, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
ur absolutely right….idk why i like infante….more of a mancrush than anything else…hes my KJ maybe? idk..
Berryhill/Olson...
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 17, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
You may have a man-crush on Infante for the same reason as I do – he always comes through with the big hits, at least in ’09 he did.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Jan 19, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
yet again, small sample sizes and all. he pretty much had career highs in all of his stats last season.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 19, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
never was in favor of that move.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 18, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
what makes it so?
bill james has him ops’ing .787, which would still be a top 5 nl offensive 2nd baseman. bill james seems to think he will still be a very productive 2nd baseman.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Well Bill James is wrong, not a realist Prado had better numbers last season after starting on the bench half the season.
yeah
thats the problem with small sample sizes. Prado may legitimately be the hitter he looked like in the second half of 2009. Or he could turn into a pumpkin next season.
And Bill James is one of the better predictive analysts in the biz, or else he wouldnt’ warrant this much attention.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 18, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
He showed flashes of his pumpkinism last season…I hope he proves me wrong, but I think the Marteeny Weenie fans here are going to be in for a disappointment.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 18, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
me too
which is why I was with you on keeping KJ. Lets hope we both aren wrong.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 19, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
was that “n” in “are” a Freudian slip?
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 19, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Bill James’ stats can only show the past, not predict the future. He developed sabermetrics as the end all of stats. Scouting was no longer required. After the first several years of missing badly on many players, James finally came to the obvious conclusion that he was dealing with people and people are not always predictable. He has been working for the Red Sox for a number of years and I don’t see them having any particular advantage over other teams. Too many variables when dealing with people.
You’re right, they don’t have any significant advantages over other teams.
Wins two world championships in the last six years
Consistently finishes at or near the top of a ridiculously-stacked AL East
Is a much better-run organization than the Braves
but but but people! intangibles! GRITTTTTTTTTTT
by drdonkeypunch on Jan 17, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Its called having a large payroll and signing known, quality players. Their farm system has been average to slightly above average. Give the Braves FO 120-140 mil to spend and we’d be right there with them.
James' analysis
is still on the forefront of the new way front offices do business. Scouting is important too, for sure. Even Bill James wouldn’t claim that sabermetrics can tell us everything. And the Bosox farm system has been better than slightly above average:
Pedroia
Youkilis
Buckholz
Papelbon
Lester
Ellsbury
Sure, having money is a huge boon, without which signing players long term and getting high quality players to fill holes is difficult. However, to say that Bill James’ analysis isn’t a crux of that organization is a fallacy.
Would the Braves be right with the Sox with their payroll. I certainly think so. Braves scouting has been top notch for years now. Could the Braves use some more statistical analysis in their FO? I think it could only help. After all, for how long did we have to hear rumors of the Braves “keeping a close eye on Marlon Byrd?” Anyone with a basic background in stats could tell you why that was a bad idea. I also think that the Braves wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the Vazquez trade if sabermetrics were a bigger part of the organization. As it stands, that trade is an unknown at best, but I think the Braves see Melky Cabrera as a legitimate starter possibility which I really dread.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 18, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
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