Game 112 Recap: Braves 8, Dodgers 2

BP’s current adjusted standings have us with a 2-2.5 game lead in the division. We’re starting to reach that point where it doesn’t mean too much (that is, it will lose its predictive value late in the season because there aren’t enough games remaining, but with 10 left against the Marlins and 9 against the Phillies, Braves still control their own fate.

Braves really need to take care of business in their next five games. No messing around with Washington-yes, they’re on a streak, but Atlanta can’t drop one to the worst team in the league. Phillies have to go to Wrigley, so hopefully Atlanta can pick up at least another half game before the weekend tilt. And the Braves can’t lose ground in the head to head games.

If the Braves sweep Washington and take 2 of 3 from Philadelphia, they’ll likely only be 3 games back with 45 games to play.

Our manager, despite his ejections, is actually a guy that backs up the players, no matter what. “Guys love confidence.” lol

If you’re looking for some SABR-metric explanations, he’s overachieving to some extent.

His peripherals have long suggested that he’s a better pitcher than his basic numbers have born out, but he’s suffered from a combination of bad luck and the “big inning syndrome.” But he’s still pitching better than even the corrections including the league adjustment, which really paint this as a career year for him.

I’ve never really watched him in the past, so I checked out Pitch F/X to find out if he’s been this good the past two years (because he’s been nothing short of awesome this year). Pitch F/X is only available since the start of 2007, and it’s a shame because it’s such a good tool.

One thing that’s immediately apparent is that Pitch F/X credits him with an extra pitch this year. In 2007-2008, he apparently didn’t utilize a 2-seam fastball, but he’s replaced about 10% of his 4-seamers with a combination of 2-seamers, curves, and change-ups. This is significant because his 2 seamer carries nearly the same velocity as his 4 seamer, but breaks about 2 inches away from right handers, really making it an effective out pitch.

One more thing I’m seeing is tighter clustering on his curveball data, meaning that he’s really controlling it with great consistency. He’s not having games where his curveball just isn’t working, or doesn’t have the same break, or he can’t locate it. It’s been a great pitch in every start he’s made this year, compared to the last two years when he didn’t always have it. As a result, he’s throwing his curveball about 3% more.

That’s about as much as I can add. Watching him, he makes very mistakes, every pitch is live with lots of movement, and he picks some great locations. The curve is a deadly weapon.

Bronn’s explanation is great.

Looking at his numbers, this is the first year where he’s been really lucky (75.5% strand rate, .306 BAbip) and pitched really well (4.57 K/BB…!!!) in the same season.

There’s an outside shot that he pitches this well next year, but there’s almost no chance of him sustaining that strand rate through the rest of the year, let alone next.

A combination of all of the above is good and he’s out of hitters’ parks like Arizona and Chicago while playing in a neutral to pitcher friendly park like Turner Field.

I’m pretty sure that this team would love nothing more than kicking ass the next 2 games. The Nats think they have some kind of edge…….fuck that.

Yeah, I’m really nervous (about the Nationals!!) because the Braves can’t afford to slip here, but not only have they struggled against the Nationals the past 2 season, but the Nationals are scorching hot.

If I felt like we had a bit more room to make mistakes, this wouldn’t worry me. I’d accept losing one to the Nationals in the hope that we could make up it over the weekend. But with only 50 games left, there’s so little room for error when you’re still down in the division race. At least I can feel good about the pitching probables for the Nats.

Somehow, deep down…..I already knew this.

and it wouldn’t hurt if the Braves put themselves into the playoff picture.

I know it wouldn’t be the first time a man has won the Cy Young without going to the AS game, but it doesn’t happen often. Would be a lovely little coup if he could pull that off.

unless Haren implodes and Lincecum dies, I don’t think he has a chance.

JV, Jurrjens, Lowe (presumably), and Hanson if needed?

I think not.

We’ve got sound pitching, with several other pieces in the system (Omar, Huddy, Heyward, Connie), not to mention a roster consisting of some of the best guys in the game.

Honestly, we deserve to win the whole damned thing after all the shady calls we’ve endured this year. And it would negate the Thillies entirely. That would be awesome.

2 at worst (we only play 2 against them, which is nice).

Blanton pitched last Friday, Hamels yesterday and Moyer today.

Either Happ or Pedro will pitch Tuesday.
Lee is Wednesday
Blanton is Thursday.

So it looks like it’ll be Hamels vs. JJ on Friday.
And then some combination of Pedro/Happ/Moyer on Saturday and Sunday (i would hope for Pedro and Moyer) vs. KK and Javy.

So no, we won’t see Cliff Lee. He’ll probably start the day after we finish the series up.

haha hereee comes Freeman! Maybe Churchy and MattyD are gonna take over at the 1B coach to let Heyward man RF.

And weird.

Just imagine if we were 3.5 games back right now!

you know who’s in Mississippi…….

Sorry, couldn’t help myself.