Will Braves' Soriano Accept or Reject Arbitration?
by gondeee on Dec 3, 2009 10:03 AM EST
in Braves Related Free Agents
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PrintThere are two competing ideas going around this morning about whether Atlanta Braves closers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez will accept or reject the Braves offer of arbitration. Here is the first take from ESPN's Buster Olney:
Says one high-ranking executive: "If Rafael Soriano turns down arbitration, he's insane." The Braves offered the right-hander arbitration after Soriano, who could make about $8 million through the process, or more than Billy Wagner will make to be the Atlanta closer.
While I like the decision to sign Billy Wagner, I agree with some folks on here yesterday who questioned the timing. But perhaps the Braves are unafraid of Soriano re-signing. That would give them another trade piece, or a fantastic (albeit expensive) 8th-9th inning punch.
SI.com's Jon Heyman follows up with this comment:
soriano, mike gonzalez will reject arbitration. one GM called them "the 2 most sought-after relievers on market."
Confusing. I can see both sides of the coin, but I think I fall on the latter side, the side of both of those guys signing elsewhere for more money and more guaranteed years than the one year they'd get with Atlanta.
[UPDATE 10:25am]
And now this clarification from David O'Brien:
Top Braves officials fully expect Soriano & Gonzalez to leave via free agency. Really, there's no doubt in their minds that both will leave.
No doubt. I wonder if they had some sort of handshake agreement that the team would offer arb, but the players would not accept it. That happens sometimes.
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I moved this from a fanshot to a main post. here are the comments from the fanshot:
That makes no sense whatsoever. Soriano would be insane to accept arbitration when he could almost certainly get a 2-3 year deal from a team like Boston, Philadelphia, or the Yankees that are even better positioned to make the playoffs than the Braves for a similar annual amount. Considering the short shelf life of relievers and Soriano’s injury history, he’d be a fool not to take a multi-year deal while he can.
by redwards95 on Dec 3, 2009 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
We should just be straight up with Soriano
and tell him "Look, Soriano, we really don’t want you back. We only offered you arbitration to get a draft pick. Seriously. If you choose to accept arbitration, we will make sure your final year in Atlanta is unpleasant."
“Sometimes I wonder what’d it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping…I think it’d be kind of nice.”
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If only it was someone besides Heyman and Olney. Based on Olney and Heymans past records on this stuff being true, I want to say they are both wrong. Sadly though, one of them will probably be right.
by McCann and McWill on Dec 3, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions
Keep it up Frank Wren...
All I want for Christmas is a Big Bat! Righty if possible! I got season tickets in section 142!
“…we will make sure your final year in Atlanta is unpleasant.”
If we were to actually say that, we would have a hard time signing free agents in the future. That would be a total dick move. Personally, if he accepts arbitration and comes back, I will be thrilled – I hate spending all of that money, but it locks down the BP.
All we would have to do after that would be to sign LaRoche, and our team would pretty much be set.
Our offense was pretty good with Adam over the second half – and that was with Chipper slumping and Nate being hurt a lot.
We dump Anderson, replace him with Church full time, bring up Heyward to be eased into the system, platooning with Diaz/Church, all while Logan is improving at AAA, and I think we have a decent offense – sure we wont have any 30 HR hitters (maybe Adam can come close), but we will have a pretty damn good lineup with good OBP.
With our staff and a lineup devoid of any Anderson, Frenchy or the sucky version of KJ and slumping Chipper, I think we have a great shot at the division.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 10:09 AM EST reply actions
i agree with everything, but why church full time and not diaz?
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
Either one. Church has better D and a better arm than Diaz, so that is why I went with him. Plus, I don’t think his splits are as drastic as Matty’s.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure
he was kidding and was taking a stab at humor, which I found to be slightly funny.
I agree with everything you said above, which is rare. If he accepts our BP will be set, and I agree that our offense will be able to produce minus the elusive “big bat.” I feel we’ve got a great base, and a good start to the off-season. All I want for Christmas now is for the team to stay healthy for 2010.
if we debate long enough, we will always find something we agree on!
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'll take stability in the pen
Resign Soriano in case Wagner flops, and if he does well you have the 8-9th shut down completely. You can even do situational R/L at-bats.
Too many years of watching the Pen blow games for me, I’ll take Soriano back.
that's a good point...
even though $15 million on two bullpen guys is mighty expensive. Unfortunately it seems we have all been scarred by the likes of Kolb, Wickman, Reitsma, etc….hell I’ll throw in Boyer’s name too
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Guys, we have to be serious...
…if we have Wagner at $7 million and Soriano at $8 million, it would mean back to Casey Kotchman level at first base. Hell, the only guy we could afford might be Kotchman himself! Yeah, that would be a nice bullpen, although similar to last year (Wagner replaces Gonzo) and at a far greater cost. If Soriano accepts we will have to trade him. If the market is dry (which it might be if nobody was going to sign him for that money), we have to give him away ala Millwood.
Assuming we could trade Lowe without eating more than 3-5M of his contract, we would have money to resign Adam…heck, we may have that money without having to dump Lowe. Wagner basically replaces Gonzo’s money, and Soriano, I assume, wouldn’t get more than $1-2M in a raise (Anderson’s salary), and that leaves us still with about $1-2M to give as a raise to LaRoche…I can see this working out without much, if any, additional money compared to last year.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Actually Gonzo’s salary was only about 3.5M this year. So Wagner is 2 of him, and there won’t be anything left over if Soriano accepts.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
But could Wagner not work against Soriano in an arb hearing?...
The Braves show what their closer is worth, i.e. Wags salary. Explain how Soriano will not be our closer this current season with him on board, and therefore not worthy of as much money as Wags is and should be paid accordingly. I think the argument can be made at least. In an arb hearing, I think that context should matter, i.e. is the players expected to play everyday with 500+ abs, be a utility player and get 300 at bats, a seldom used pinch hitter with maybe 100 ABs, or a #1 starter, a #5 starter, a closer, a main set up, a seldom used reliever?
Dang…I was thinking that Gonzo was about $6M for some reason…well, in that case, I hope Gonzo accepts arb then, and Soriano walks – Gonzo would be cheaper than Sori…but, I know that someone doesn’t sign Boras as their agent to accept arbitration, so this all doesn’t really matter.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Now that Saito is official it’s hopefully a moot point. Gonzo + Soriano cost just shy of 10M this year, and Wags and Saito will cost exactly 10M next year, so we’ ve replaced both of them for just a few hundred thousand. Though honestly, Wren, why not at least make a run at Calero before signing Saito? Just sayin…
Now we’re in a bind, however, if Soriano accepts arb. I highly doubt he does, but until he officially declines there’s an extra bead of sweat on my brow.
Wagner is our closer
With Wagner settled as our closer it makes it even more highly unlikely that either one would accept arbitration since they would become a free agent after spending a year as a set up man which would significantly decrease his value on the open market. Not to mention that either could easily get injured again. A multi year contract is definitely what both of them want.
Does Anybody Know......???
Does anybody know what the crop of free agent relievers is going to be like next year?
I don’t think Soriano will accept arbitration from us, but if he is going to then it will definitely be a direct correlation to the free agent market next year. This year’s crop of free agent relievers is a pretty long and good list, so this could hinder even the best relievers from receiving the top dollar multi year contracts that they seek. Soriano may feel that he is young enough and could duplicate what he did this past year and receive a bigger and better offer next year…..that is of course if the list of relievers isn’t as good next year. So does anyone have a list?
here it is
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 10:48 AM EST reply actions
Although
I seriously doubt Soriano is thinking that way…he’ll take a good deal when he gets it. It’d be way too risky to postpone a contract for a whole season…what if he gets hurt, or has a bad season? Then he’s basically screwed.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I agree...
that Soriano probably isn’t thinking this way. Like I said I doubt he accepts arbitration, but it wouldn’t be the first time a player has gambled contract. Remember Juan Gonzalez? Back in 2000 he was traded to the Tigers and they offered him an 8 year extension worth 140 million, but he declined. This would have paid him 17.5 million a year through this past season. Instead, he declined the offer and was finished playing by 2005. Through those last seasons (2001-2005) he made 38.6 million. So he took a gamble and lost big time by leaving 102 million on the table.
Anyways, my point is that it could happen, especially if he has the confidence in his ability to stay healthy and produce. This could also happen more easily if the people in his life (family, agent, etc.) are greedy and keep whispering in his ear about the big payday. I’m not saying that he has greedy people beside him, but you never know.
Think about it. If he accepts arbitration, he stands to make around 8 million dollars, which is a large amount. He may get a multiyear deal worth this amount each year, but that is not a guarantee due to the long list of relievers availbable coupled with the fact that whatever teams signs him will have to give up draft picks. If he were a gambling man this would put him in the perfect position…… I say this puts him in the perfect position because he could accept arbitration and make a great salary this year. He could then go out next year and be healthy and productive. After the season we are back in the same boat except for a couple of different scenarios:
Do the Braves offer Arb this time? If he was making 8-9 million then he would stand to make over 10 million the next year if he accepted. The Braves probably wouldn’t gamble on offering Arb again with this figure staring them in the face, but if they did then he could get paid big for another year. If they didn’t, now Soriano is free to sign with whatever team he wants and it won’t cost the other team a draft pick, so this could expand his list of possible suitors. Couple the fact that he won’t cost a draft pick with the weaker free agent class, then he could stand to make a lot more money as he would have more appeal to teams and thus more bargaining power.
I doubt any of this takes place, but there is always that possiblity. When there are millions and millions of dollars involved then you have to imagine anything is possible. The big payday is nice, but sometimes that dream of an even bigger payday might be too tempting for some to pass up.
I def see the possibility
Let’s hope he doesn’t accept. If anyone is gonna accept arb, I would prefer Gonzo even though we already have a lefty in Wagner. He’s cheaper, and good looking.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
The same reason we would rather have Gonzo accept...
…is the same reason that Soriano is more likely to accept—-Soriano will get more money in arbitration. It really comes down to the alternatives for both. By offering arbitration to them, we lowered the salary they will get on the free agent market. In Gonzo’s case, he’ll still get more on the market than in arbitration, so he won’t accept. Soriano is a closer call—-if the offers he is getting now (and don’t think he isn’t burning up the phone lines and having his agent say, give us your best offer or we just might accept arbitration) are stuff like 2 years, $14 million, then yeah, he might take our arbitration offer which should end up something like one year, $8 million. If he is getting substantially higher offers, he will decline.
all i know is
i want Michael Wuertz for the bullpen and Mike Cameron for the outfield.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by Scott Coleman on Dec 3, 2009 11:41 AM EST via mobile reply actions
The Reason you Sign Wagner
is so that it ensures Gonzo and Soriano reject arbitration. Arb cases and even future contracts deal in numbers not talent and if they don’t get Saves they don’t get the big bucks. By signing Wagner the Braves have told them they aren’t getting the saves.
I think the likelihood of either accepting arb. was small from the beginning, particularly Gonzo, but even if Soriano signs, though he’s expensive he’ll be valuable.
I wonder about not offering LaRoche arb. If any handshaking deals went on, it probably was with LaRoche asking them not to offer it.
LaRoche would not have cared if we offered
He is a Type B free agent—-his value doesn’t go down if we offer arbitration because he doesn’t cost the signing team a draft pick, he just gives us a supplemental draft pick. He would have wanted us to offer arbitration because it gives him another option.
All of this is pretty confusing to me, so forgive me if this is a dumb question. But since we didn’t offer LaRoche arbitration, how much chance is there of him coming back next season? I don’t really understand how it works.
Probably about the same chance there was a week ago. It used to be if you didn’t offer a guy arbitration you couldn’t re-sign him, but that’s not the case anymore. All this really means is he doesn’t have the option to choose arbitration, which he might not have done anyway. It’s more or less like it was, he’s a free agent, the Braves are interested, but only for a certain price and number of years.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Depends on how you look at it:
Positives of not offering: He could, potentially, take a pay CUT rather than a raise (if he really really really likes playing in Atl), which couldn’t happen in arbitration. He could be signed for longer than 1 year.
Negative: Other teams can negotiate with him. No draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 3, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
All of those positives remain with or without arb...
he can sign deals before going to the arbiter.
I’d say: Don’t risk a $10 million commitment which may screw up other off season plans. Perhaps you want others more, or think you can obtain him cheaper if he hits the open market and gets little/no interest.
If one of them (Raf or Gonzo) sticks around for Bobby’s last year, that would be awesome. I think we could swing it. Moving Lowe is the one chip we have on our shoulder right now.
Somebody around here is more anal than the mom on 7th heaven. Freakin' A. lol
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Dec 3, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions
My two cents
1. If Sori accepts then I believe Lowe gets dumped on the first taker. FW will not wait around on Lackey to sign to see if there is a market for Lowe at that point leaving us to pick through the FA crumbs for a bat.
2. If Sori declines then we’re right where we are now, FW will wait around on Lackey to sign before making a move with one of our starters (Lowe vs. Vazquez) giving us the best possible chance at landing that bat we need.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
I would like them both back.
I know it would cost quite a bit of money, but that would give us an insane bullpen.
and would have over 23 million for 3 bullpen guys.
that’s just nuts.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Dec 3, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
If only we had money like the Yankees...
then we actually could have that bullpen and still have, oh, I don’t know, $100 million left over to get a big bat. And Yankees fans say that their payroll isn’t cheating…if the Braves had that kind of money we could buy Pujols from the Cardinals.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 3, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously.
Only the Yanks, Red Sox, or Cubs could swing something that outrageous, and regardless of what anybody says (including any online guru, or even Bud ‘Sh*thead’ Selig) that just ain’t fair.
Somebody around here is more anal than the mom on 7th heaven. Freakin' A. lol
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Dec 3, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
So what will happen if
ONE team signs both Gonzo and Soriano. Do we get their first rounder and a supplemental pick? Word on the street is that the Tigers are interested in both.
If a team gave up their first two draft picks like that, they would be stupid.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 4, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, giving up just one is probably stupider...
…after you sign the first Class A guy, the price of signing the second guy is cheaper (2nd round instead of first, or if protected, third round instead of second). It makes more sense to sign a bunch of Class A guys one year and none the next year than it does to sign one Class A guy every year. Hell, the Blue Jays only got a third round pick for AJ Burnett last year because Teix and Sabathia were ahead of him.
Let’s see where that puts them in the next few years.
I get what you are saying though. Financially it kinda makes sense, but if someone wants to put together a good system, it is dumb.
Draft picks are what you build your team with, not free agents or mega trades.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 4, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
I saw yesterday where BA has the Blue Jays in the bottom 5 of Minor League systems…
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Yeah, KLaw answered a question about them in his chat yesterday and wasn’t too fond of what they are doing/have done to bolster their system.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 4, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for this
good analysis here. So we have to hope they do not sign together with one team. My thinking is that each one wants to be the closer so they’ll part ways despite the fact that teams will want them both.
The reliever market got REAL thin!!!
This is great, people that is scare that Gonzalez or Soriano would acept arb are not taking into consideration that with Saito and Warner gone there is not much left as far as real good relievers. So they will sign somewhere an the Braves get the picks!
BUT WHY did we not offer it to Adam??? I think he would be a good value for $10 at worst case esecenario. We could still negotiate a two year offer at a home town discount or get the picks if he leaves. I don’t see any equal or better player to be ours for less than $10 a year and I am sure other teams would have paid that much for him.
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