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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

The Case of Jones v. Wells

At the end of the 2006 season, Andruw Jones had just completed his second consecutive 40+ homerun 125+ RBI season at only 29-years of age, and he looked like he might have finally become the powerful force in the middle of the Braves order... but would he remain there for the rest of his career? He was likely to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers when he became a free agent a year later.

At the end of the 2006 season, Vernon Wells had just posted another 30 homer 100+ RBI season, and at 27-years of age he looked like the next coming of the great outfielders of our era. He was a year away from free agency, and like Jones, was also sure to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers.

This is where two roads diverged in a wood, and each team took a different path. The Braves chose to ride out the rest of Andruw's contract, and seeing his performance decline, opted to let him walk away via free agency. The Blue Jays chose to sign their young star to a huge ball-busting contract of 7-years and $126 million. A contract that was so ridiculously back-loaded that the Jays are still on the hook for $105 million over the next 5 years.

Sometimes its the moves that a team doesn't make which determines their fate for years to come. Had the Braves signed Jones to a similar contract, we'd be talking about who has baseball's worse contract, Atlanta or Toronto. As it is, the winner is clearly Toronto and the money yet owed to the pedestrian Vernon Wells.

MLBTR has a great look back at the Wells contract and what the baseball pundits said about that contract at the time. That piece got me thinking about the choice we made versus the choice that Toronto made. This is why we very rarely see the Braves commit so many years and so much money to any one player.

That also got me thinking about this article by Ken Rosenthal, in which he thinks the Tigers should trade Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has an equally monstrous amount of money left on his deal, and if it weren't for that I would say let's make a play for him. But I just can't see the Braves ponying up $20 million a year for a guy (not after they got burned by the Mike Hampton trade). If the price were right though, say Vazquez, Freeman, and another prospect (not named Heyward), and the Tigers could pick up some of the tab, then I'd have to seriously think the Braves would make a run at Cabrera, assuming of course that he's available. Even with the monster contract. Okay, now I'm rosterbating, and drooling a bit.

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Andruw's contract with the Dodgers

was a bigger rip-off, in my opinion. Wells is still somewhat productive, at least.

by GouldisGold on Nov 16, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions  

Miguel Cabrera

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Tigers lavished the 7th most lucrative (by total value – not average annual value) contract in baseball history on Cabrera: $152,300,000 (2008-15).

Unless a team is owned by a billionaire who chooses to simply does not operate it as a business, a contract like that is just absolutely unworkable.

So, stop your drooling. He is not an option.

by fandave on Nov 16, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions  

I know, I know, I know, but at least let me drool.

by gondeee on Nov 16, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s weird I did the math on rotoworld and it says he signed a 7 year $141M contract with 6 years and $126M left on it. Was there a bonus or something on it.

by jack dein on Nov 16, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Dunno. Rosenthal’s article also says he’s guaranteed $126 M over the next 6 years. Of course, given the breakdown is $21M / year, it hardly matters.

by fandave on Nov 16, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Off to the Yankees.

They will probably squeeze him in as their DH.

by GouldisGold on Nov 16, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

This would be awesome. People round the Interwebs who complain about the Yanks would completely lose their shit.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 17, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Could we possibly work out something with the Tigers maybe with Lowe for Cabrera?

by SBURROUGHS on Nov 16, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Even if we could get Cabrera,

he beats his wife. He should consider joining the NFL instead of baseball.

by GouldisGold on Nov 16, 2009 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

With a career OPS

of .925, it can be safely assumed that he beats most everything in his life, to baseballs, his wife, the buffet in the press room. I’d still give a kidney for him to play for the Braves, as unlikely as it is; after all, most still love Bobby Cox despite his own indiscretion.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 16, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Lol

Love it

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 16, 2009 9:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I gotta say, i really think that you are undervaluing Miguel Cabrera.

I mean, look at his offensive #s. They are top 10 in baseball every year, if not top 5. I doubt they’d trade someone so productive for a 20 yr old prospect.

MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...

by nick9314 on Nov 16, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think Cabrera should be put in the same sentence as those CF'er's

Because unlike them, he was actually worth the money so far (according to fangraphs). Now I’m not saying it was a wise move on Detroit’s part to just throw all that money at one player. When the economy is down like it has been, it’s just not that smart imo.

by SmithnCompany on Nov 16, 2009 7:01 PM EST reply actions  

They wouldn’t want Vasquez, they are only moving him because they want to slash payroll.

I think they’d want a Schafer, Freeman, Spec (maybe Medlen) deal. Scary thing is he’s probably worth it.

by graf on Nov 16, 2009 7:39 PM EST reply actions  

by trading Miggy for Vazquez they’d slash 10M off their payroll this year and around 90M over the next 6(ish)

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 16, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

5 years sry and its over 100M theyd save sooo… thts quite the chunk of change

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 16, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Ya but if they take Schafer instead, they can move Granderson’s deal…Saving 25 mil this yr.

by graf on Nov 16, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

obviously that preferable… but no team can take on both those players..so its ridiculous to suggest that

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 16, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

2 deals: The deal I mentioned then moving Granderson to the Cubs or whoever

by graf on Nov 16, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

ok
then thats fine… even still granderson is cheap and pretty good … so trading him doesnt make sense (although there are rumors the tigers are shopping him)

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 16, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

im not suggesting we are just that the reasons we arent getting them have nothing to do with our ability to reduce the tigers payroll

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 16, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Miguel Cabrera???

Yummy. I’ll take one of him, with a side order of the NL East divison title in 2010.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 16, 2009 10:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

u dont get that adding miguel cabrera would make us the odds on favorite to win the nl east?

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 17, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Eff the NL East

Prob the WS if we sign a closer

by drumzalicious on Nov 17, 2009 12:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Chipper-Cabrera-McCann-Heyward………Excuse me while I change my pants.

by graf on Nov 17, 2009 6:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth...

Their offense would still be better than ours. If we win it will be with pitching. And I’’m not sure just adding Cabrera would put us over the top.

by Fischerking on Nov 17, 2009 8:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Completely agree.

In my view, Wren should not – under almost any rationally conceivabe circumstances – trade JJ or Javy.

Absent a salary dump of Lowe to allow us the flexibility for some bold maneuvering, my prediction is Wren will make only a few smallish moves.

by fandave on Nov 17, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it would be a tossup and out pitching is wayy better

by graf on Nov 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Surely you don't mean a toss up on offense, but a toss up overall

They have built an elite offense that is favorable to most of the teams even in the AL. Our pitching is better IMO but saying that one more bat and our uber-prospect in the line-up would give us the upper hand on offense would be seeing the world through ATL blue and red to an extreme.

by Fischerking on Nov 17, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Buddy Carlyle has joined the Nippon Ham Fighters, according to Kyodo News.

N. Tyler Ayers

by TMAC85 on Nov 17, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

There is one fanpost already about this and Gondeee has it on the mainpage.

by Sparhawk on Nov 17, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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