The obligatory Braves rumor shoot-down

by gondeee on Nov 13, 2009 2:37 PM EST in Trade News Comment 34 comments

Mark Bowman has been doing a yeoman's job of shooting down rumors that pop up so far this off-season. Last night ex-Nats GM Jim Bowden reported that the Dodgers and Braves were discussing a possible Javier Vazquez deal. As johnny-on-the-spot as Bowman was in getting information from the Braves front office that shot down the Aroldis Chapman rumor, he was equally as proactive in getting info from inside the Braves front office that has now shot down this Vazquez-Dodgers rumor:

[...] early Friday afternoon a team source said that the Braves and Dodgers aren't currently in the midst of any trade discussions.

Earlier today I immediately said that this rumor was likely a long-shot and not worth too much. I think it was Jim Bowden's first shot at spreading a rumor as a journalist -- maybe this was just a test rumor.

Bowman does give us some replacement rumors, hinting that the main suitors for Derek Lowe might be the Angels and Brewers, though the Brewers would likely prefer Javier Vazquez.

With the speed that Twitter gives one to disseminate information, I think we'll be seeing a lot of false rumors pop up this off-season.

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I am an ardent opponent of Twitter. I don’t use it personally, and I resent that journalism, particularly sports journalism, is accepting it as a legitimate avenue for dissemination of information. I kept up with the Jake Peavy Derby last offseason via MLBTR, but reading their stuff over the course of this year, it’s scary how many twitter posts they link to, most of which are exactly what you’d expect from twitter- 140 unsubstantiated characters. Twitter is beautiful for people who make shit up- you don’t have to post a source, elaborate on what you’re saying, etc. I will never put stock in anything in a twitter rumor until it is confirmed by a legitimate, fact-checked article.

But yes, dear fans, brace yourselves because the tweets are going to run rampant this winter.

by J-Freak on Nov 13, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lowe to the Angels could be a very real possibility. One of the rumors involved in the Angels pursuit of Curtis Granderson is that they would potentially shop Juan Rivera, who could be a fit for us and is signed for 2 more years for just under 10M total dollars.

Lowe for Rivera… could work.

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Nov 13, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They would want more than Lowe for Rivera

Rivera is signed below value. Lowe is at or above value. Even if things worked out where the Angels wanted to move Rivera, they would get more than Lowe in return.

by cavebird on Nov 13, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The same Juan Rivera

who’s never played more than 138 games in a season before? The same Juan Rivera who played 103 games from 07-08?

I guess I’d take him for his power numbers, but we better keep MattyD around. Rivera can’t stay healthy. He’d also have to play the field every night. He almost always got a night or two off a week to DH.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 13, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the rumor was bogus from the begining.

Anyways as for the the Lowe rumors, I think the best thing would be to drop his salary off if we can to a big salary team like LAA or NYY who has some need for MOR stability and not expect much if anything at all in return.

If that isn’t possible then we can look to take a albatross contract in return. One that comes to mind is Jeff Suppan. He is owed 12.5 in ‘10 and 2 buyout in ’11. Shedding Lowe’s contract beyond ‘10 would allow us to aproach Vazquez with a nice extention number maybe in the 13-14per range over ’11-’13. We could then use Suppan as the token spot starter that Bobby never uses.

Of course dropping Lowe’s contract in its entirety would be the best option but who knows exactly what this market will look like.

by bbxxj on Nov 13, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

braun or rivera or bust

by Lemke4790 on Nov 13, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You didn’t just equate Juan Rivera with Ryan Braun, did you? Rivera is a decent piece to have, but if actually given the choice between the two it’s Braun by miles everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. And we’ll never get Braun because the Brewers know that.

by J-Freak on Nov 13, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed re Braun. But Fielder is probably available. He’s expensive, a Scott Boras client, and likely to bolt after 2011.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pass

that would be Tex all over again. Yech.

by J-Freak on Nov 13, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on what it costs. If Jurrjens for Fielder got it done, I think that would be a terrific move.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you serious?

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

by Doghnut on Nov 13, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, in a vaccum it would be a good deal. Not to rehash the previous discussion on Jurrjens from a few weeks back, but Jurrjens is due for a bit of a regression, and his K/9 totals are not much to write home about. If the Braves can deal him while his superficial numbers look stunning, they may get over-market value for him. I also think that the Brewers would do the deal.

The problem with the trade would be the ramifications up and down the rest of the Braves roster. It would make dealing Lowe a necessity, and it would probably make it very scary for Wren to offer arb to both Soriano and Gonzalez.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So his K’s are nothing to write home about, big bloody deal. Maddux wasn’t exactly a striekout artist either but no one said “O, we’ve got to move him to get above market value!” I know, I know, it’s apples and oranges, but there’s a lot more to pitching than strikeouts. Is he gonna post a 2.60 ERA next year? Doubtful. But it’s just as doubtful he’ll put up anything worse than 3.00-3.20. He’s still a fantastic young pitcher, and cost controlled for at least one more year and team controlled for 4 more. He has more lasting value, therefore, than Fielder. I stand by my original position- Pass.

by J-Freak on Nov 13, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pass too

esp if it means we HAVE to trade lowe as yakker said…suddenly we’d be weak in starting pitching, our only true strength atm

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

by Doghnut on Nov 14, 2009 6:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand what Yakker is saying

but I wouldn’t do it. Fielder is basically a guarantee to walk once he is a FA. Unlike with Tex, we have absolutely no reason to think there is even a small chance of him returning to the Braves or being reasonable (which it turns out Tex wasn’t going to do that either).

by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 14, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right. You’d have to make the deal knowing that Fielder would walk in 2012, but then again, Freeman would presumably be ready by then, if not sooner.

I like Jurrjens as a solid young pitcher, but he is also at the peak of his value now, given his cost and superficially terrific stats. Plus, as with any young pitcher, the specter of injury means you deal em when you can. See, e.g., Noah Lowry a few years back, who Sabean held on to way too long.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 14, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m with you. I was talking to someone about this just a couple of days ago, and I am all for trading JJ. Here’s why:

I think he provides the most value in return. He is cheap, under control for a while, and has proven to be an exceptional pitcher. I think that the bat that he could bring in would MORE than make up for any drop in the quality of our rotation…

It isn’t like we are going to be hurting on the hill this year. For sake of argument, say our Starting Pitching rates a 90 on my scale that I am making up for this argument. Our offense, as it is right now (with no LaRoche, and no Heyward) rates a 60. Let’s just say our BP ranks a 70. That is a total of 220 on the Justin scale.

Now, let’s say we trade away JJ for Fielder. That brings our Starting Pitching down to an 80, brings our offense up to a 85 and our BP is still a 70. That is a total of 235.

Now, We all of a sudden have a good team, because on my scale, a 225 or better is competitive.

seriously though, I think losing JJ doesn’t hurt as much as not having a Prince-type bat would hurt.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 14, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that would be a great trade for us.

It doesn’t matter, however, as the Brewers would never do that. Fielder is the face of the team; they are trying to sign him long term already. If they move Fielder, it would only be for a deal they couldn’t refuse and we don’t want to give up that much for him.

by cavebird on Nov 15, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Braun is the face, not Fielder. Braun’s under control for many more years at a reasonable price, Fielder’s not.

Plus, having apparently decided that McGahee is their long-term solution at 3B, the Brewers need somewhere to put Gamel.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 15, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why is Fielder available?

He isn’t that expensive yet, and the Brewers are already talking about signing him long-term. I doubt that either Braun or Fielder is available. With the Brewers the one that is available is probably Cory Hart. It is an open question whether he is worth pursuing however.

by cavebird on Nov 13, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fielder will cost $11M in 2010 and more than that for 2011. With Boras as his agent, an extension pre-free agency is unlikely. Plus, the Brewers will probably have Gamel ready for 1B in 2011, assuming he can’t stick at 3B.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

could you imagine heyward and braun in the corner OF spots for the next couple years..damn!

"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly

by Hcgadawgs on Nov 13, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lowe for Rivera

then with payroll flexibility we resign either Soriano or Gonzo (offering each arbitration) and letting the other walk. Getting pick for the one we don’t sign. Then we sign LaRoche. With the added payroll Liberty wants to give us plus the money saved (5 million) from the Lowe/Rivera difference we could look in on Figgins.

2B – Figgins
SS – Escobar
3B – Chipper
RF – Rivera
C – McCann
1B – LaRoche
LF – Diaz/B. Jones (trading Church and Infante for some minor league players)
CF – McClouth
P -

Prado as super-sub and 2B when Figgins moves to 3B on Chipper off days.

rotation of:

Vaz
JJ
Hanson
KK
Hudson

is pretty sweet.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 13, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sweet but not realistic.

Lowe is at or above value at $15 million per, Rivera is signed below value at $4-$5 million per year. I don’t know why the Angels would consider it unless we were eating a big chunk of Lowe’s contract, which would ruin the value of Rivera.

by cavebird on Nov 13, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And nobody will trade for Church

He will likely be non-tendered. I would think of keeping Infante as a super-sub. I don’t think we have a grand salary increase from Liberty, so Figgins is a pipe dream—-besides he’ll be too expensive and a luxury we don’t need, we should spend the money on power instead.

by cavebird on Nov 13, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it would be nice, but your lineup is off, IMO

Figgins
McLouth
Chipper
Rivera
McCann
Escobar
LaRoche
Diaz/Heyward

And why would we trade Infante?? He’s been fantastic for us the past 2 seasons.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 13, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe for Morales but not Rivera alone

Sorry D.Lowe is worth more than just Rivera especially with Lackey trying to command what he wants on the free agent market which is going to scare off alot of buyers this offseason.

However given contract and age, we will more than likely only get either Cory Hart or I would much rather have Juan Rivera for D. Lowe.

We hold the goods in both situations for both teams and my ideas or hopeful ideas.

Brewers trade:
Prince Fielder or R. Braun for D.Lowe and another decent player

Angels trade:
Rivera and bullpen pitcher str8 up for D. Lowe or I would prefer to have Morales for D. Lowe str8 up

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Nov 13, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oh dear

I hope this was meant as a joke.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 14, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's nice, now how are you going to put a Braves sleeper in the front offices of the Angels or Brewers?

Fielder or Braun would require far more than Lowe. Would cost more than just JJ as well. Young incredibly good sluggers under team control are generally just not available at all.

I doubt we get Rivera straight up for Lowe and they certainly wouldn’t throw in a reliever. We wouldn’t get Morales for Lowe period. He is way too cheap to trade for a pitcher who is signed at or above value like Lowe.

Turning your ideas on their head, wouldn’t you laugh at people on other team boards making up trade ideas for McCann or Hanson or Heyward?

by cavebird on Nov 15, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs