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Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves:  #3

We continue our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Three:  Who will be the Braves closer in 2010?

You heard it here first folks, the bullpen has the potential to be the biggest problem for the Braves this off-season. This season we had the luxury of having two closers at the back of our bullpen, and while they had their issues at times it was certainly a whole lot better than trying to get a save on a consistent basis from Jeff Bennett or Tyler Yates or Chris Reitsma. Our bullpen was a luxury, not as much of a luxury as having old 29 back there, but with Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings we had a much better chance to win ballgames than we have in several years.

As good as they were, there were still some issues and plenty of blown saves, but our bullpen picked up 38 saves and was considered a strength of our club (for the most part). This off-season the two main parts of that pen are free agents, and this is a lean year for free agent closers. Both Soriano and Gonzalez are likely to be type-A free agents, meaning if we offer them arbitration we would get a first round draft pick were they to sign elsewhere. But that also means that other teams may be more hesitant to sign them for fear of losing a first round pick.

I've read some analysis that said baseball folks expect the Braves to offer arbitration to Gonzalez but not to Soriano. There is a danger in offering both of them arbitration as both could accept and re-sign and then we would be stuck with a pretty expensive bullpen next year, perhaps too expensive to afford. This is the reason being given for believing the Braves will let Soriano walk and go hard at Gonzalez. But if both of them leave... that would leave us in quite a predicament.

Star-divide

Would we  use our starting pitching surplus to acquire a closer, or would we once again assemble a rag-tag group of spring training invitees hoping for a chance to make the pen (as was quite often done under John Schuerholz)? Hopefully the Braves have learned their lesson about needing a "quality" "proven" closer (I don't think I need to mention any names).

The Braves do have a couple of internal candidates. Craig Kimbrel and his funky delivery will be another one of the prospects in the Arizona Fall League, but he is still likely a year away as needs to sort out his problem with the bases on balls. Peter Moylan is certainly a durable arm and one that can get the strikeout from time to time, he could be an option. Kris Medlen could also close, but he was very inconsistent this year and may not be ready just yet.  These aren't very good candidates, which further underscores the need for a proven commodity to close out games in Atlanta.

The only real other proven closer on the free agent market worth a damn is Jose Valverde of Houston. Yes there are others like Rodney and Gregg, but they aren't good. There is Billy Wagner, someone the Braves are rumored to be interested in, but he is coming off of surgery and is getting up there in age, so signing him may be a roll of the dice. All of that leads us back to either Gonzalez or Soriano.

Keep in mind too that the Braves could be well served by getting another setup man or two, since the last two spots in the pen are occupied by guys that Cox doesn't have much faith in. This is even more reason not to try and keep at least one of our 8th and 9th innings pieces around for at least another season.

Gonzalez seems to like Atlanta, and a chance to close here once again could persuade him to re-sign. I'd like to see the team offer arbitration to Soriano and go for that extra draft pick, but I don't think they'll risk it seeing how tight their finances are. Whatever scenario you throw out there it leaves us needing another reliever or two, so look for Atlanta to be very active on that front this off-season.

Coming up later, Question Four:  Who will man first base for the Braves in 2010?

0 recs  |  Comment 45 comments |

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Comments

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I thought it was funny during Friday’s game when the Braves were showing “thank you’s” from the players in between innings on the big screen. Mike Gonzalez was doing his and promised “we’ll have a better team next year.” Kinda funny from an impending free agent.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Oct 6, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That is interesting.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano is a bad bet based on his every other year health issues. Let the Cubs or some other team overpay him a 2-3 year deal. Re-signing Gonzalez makes more sense, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Wren trades for a reliever or two and next year’s closer is somebody who isn’t on the roster. I’m not sure how Moylan counts as durable considering he missed most of last year with TJ surgery. After all the games he pitched this year, I wouldn’t count on much of anything from him next year.

by redwards95 on Oct 6, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

how is moylan durable? maybe leading the league in apperances and still dominating explains that…

but i think we’ll resign gonzo and he’ll be the designated closer..but i dont think bobby should throw him out there every save situation…i say moylan should be brought in in some situations and give gonzo a day off…maybe gonzo against some tough lefties and peter against the righties, something of that nature…

the whole “closer” designation is way overrated

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 6, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it?

How many BbCs actually work?

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need Billionare Ted and his bottomless check book to come back. :P

"My God! Good news fans, the Braves are showing signs of life for the first time in weeks. As a matter of fact, they appear to be beating the crap out of each other."

by bravos1984 on Oct 6, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’d rather keep Soriano if I had to choose, but it honestly doesn’t matter.

Either one would be welcome back.

by Sparhawk on Oct 6, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I’ve got more confidence in Soriano…when he’s healthy, of course.

"If it weren't for baseball, many kids wouldn't know what a millionaire looks like." - Phyllis Diller

by WienerDog on Oct 6, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better Idea

In a recent MLB.com article Mark Bowman suggest that KJ is on the trading block; and in another article he suggest that Pirates closer Matt Capps in on the trading block as well. Capps would be a gamble b/c of his poor ERA last year over 5.00 and he is going to be in his last year of arb eligibility; However the Pirates have shown interest in KJ and I would make the deal str8 up.

KJ for Capps (closer situation solved)

Link:
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/10/let_the_hot_stove_season_begin.html

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How is the closer solved then when Capps was so bad? You can hardly count on him.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 6, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Capps is better than anything else we have.

Simple look at Capps stats granted he is never going to be a Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, or Brad Lige, or Valverde type guy. But hey if we could get him from the Pirates for KK or Kelly Johnson str8 up I would make the deal. KK I would ask for bullpen help as well. But if we are simply just dealing Kelly Johnson for Capps that would make better sense. Then we could keep KK or deal him along with Diaz for a power hitting LF.

Stop with all the Schafer talk; the team is not going to rush him next year and he will not make this team out of camp. he needs more time at AAA level to develop further. Same will go for Heyward so don’t look for him until after the all-star break in 2010.

Go Braves NL East 2010 Champs

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 7, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heyward will absolutely be up before the ASG.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe they think he had a bad year...

because of an injury or mechanical problem. He’s a local boy (Douglasville), and had a great last few years before this one. Not saying he’s the answer, but at least an option to consider.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 7, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I completely agree that he could be looked at as an option, but I was disagreeing with Holty_Panther_Fan’s idea that getting Capps solves the closer problem if Gonzalez and Soriano both leave. If anything, their combined departure creates a huge void that a shaky Capps, who you can’t count on until he actually rights himself, does nothing to fill.

And personally, I love Capps. He’s a great guy and I’d love to see him come play for his hometown team.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 7, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly though cb...

how many people are out there you can honestly “count on” to close games all season next year? Soriano and Gonzalez had a better year than Capps, but both have the lingering overuse/injury concern and Capps was as good or better the two previous seasons. Other options like Putz, Wagner, Smoltz, and all the other names that have been brought up have serious question marks about them as well. The closers you can rely on—Paplebon, Rivera, KRod, Nathan, are in high demand and locked up, except for Jose Valverde and I’d assume the numerous other teams will be offering him a large, long contract.

I agree, Capps is shaky, but what realistic option doesn’t come laden with questions either injury, ability, or both.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 7, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s why it makes more sense to take the money you’d use to pay Capps (or Johnson) and put it toward resigning Gonzalez or Soriano. Knowing that nobody is a sure thing, wouldn’t you rather have the guy who’s had more recent success?

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 7, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Soo...

Matt Capps is not mentioned in that article at all.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lowe

6th best SP with 85 career saves.

by Drom John on Oct 6, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really committee

Lowe for 3 IP saves.
Gonzalez and Soriano to go after 8th and 9th innings when Lowe need rest, swapping depending on the expected handedness of the batters.

by Drom John on Oct 6, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is quite the payroll… if we re-sign GOnzo and Soriano thats gonna be like 12-15M… along with 15M for Lowe…thats nearly 30M on three guys in our bullpen, with who u want to rotate randomly

meaning our payoll is like a billion dollars if we actually acquire a power hitting right handed bat

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Way to go with the self-props there. Most of your ideas are ridiculous from every aspect.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 7, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, because there are a lot of 3 IP closers.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arbitration rules...

if someone “accepts” arbitration, can you trade them? What I’m wondering is say, worst case scenario you describe and both accept arbitration, would the Braves be able to deal one or the other in that situation for whatever they can get in return?

Also, no mention of Jorge Campillo? He was great a year ago, why is he getting no love now?

The Braves, if closer can be settled by someone be it Lowe, Soriano, Moylan, Gonzo, Capps or whoever, and allow for everyone to find defined roles, we should be pretty solid in middle relief with the numerous options under club control (Moylan, Medlen, O’Flaherty, Logan, Kimbrel, Valdez, Campillo, Carlyle, Acosta, Gearrin, Gunderson, etc)

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 6, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Campillo missed the year so it’s kind of hard to count on him. Also, 2008 was a total surprise, so it’d have been a shock if he was anywhere near as effective in 2009 if he was healthy. He should be brought into ST in 2010, but until he actually does something you can’t really count on him.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 6, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well see, now we're running into that ERA problem.

While Gonzo and Soriano have comparable ERAs they didn’t pitch comparably well this year, Soriano’s FIP is nearly a run lower than Gonzo’s. In addition his Ks per 9, K/BB ratio, and BB per 9 are all much better. Walks in a closer are killer and we all saw Gonzo get hit by the wildness bug. I’d say on the balance I’d much rather have Soriano. That of course assumes he stays healthy, which is a big if.

Also as a side note, how in the world did Peter Moylan not give up a single home run all year? That’s ridiculous!

by Perrinbar on Oct 6, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez also was admittedly not 100% from TJ.

As for Moylan, it’s actually real close to two years wow. Pretty ridiculous indeed.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Boone?

Boone Logan showed some potential, though somewhat inconsistent.

And Medlen needs some work (probably confidence, too). Maybe the offseason will better prepare him for a closer’s role.

I could see trying D Lowe in the role, and let KK into the starting rotation again.

Let Soriano go, as much as I hate to say it. We just can’t afford it, imo.

by Audi on Oct 6, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Logan pitched well at AAA...

But that’s what he’s always done. I’d like to see him as a good MR for a whole year in the bigs before we start putting him in high-leverage situations.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?

Keep Gonzo over Soriano? Never.

Just retain Soriano and use Moylan/EoF as SU men if we dont acquire one via trade/free agency

by drumzalicious on Oct 6, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

EOF as a setup man is something i foresee and am worried about… he was perfect in his role this year, i thought as the 4th man out of th epen and the LOOGY. i don’t think he is a setup man, but i could be wrong.

Although Id rather have Soriano over GOnzalez, they both have injury histories, mine as well take the one who is better and thats Soriano

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They need to offer both arbitration. If both accept, trade one of them. Pretty simple concept imo. And really the reason the “no name” closers failed before is because their repetoire was poorly suited for late inning situations, guys like Moylan and Medlen with their good strikeout numbers are much better suited for the role. I’d love to see us trade for Mike Wuertz of the A’s as well

by McCann's the Man on Oct 6, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i agree offer both arbitration, because the risk of losign both is too great… if we end up with both and have salary issues that can be easier dealt with.

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 6, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong; The team is going to run out of money similar to what happend when #31 old Greggy boy accepted arb; and we were scewed as a organization b/c we then had to dump payroll and give K. Millwood away for crap.

Say good bye to both Soriano and Gonzo this off-season. Soriano had a career year and he will definately test the free agent waters. Gonzo is a setup man but however he is left handed and proved that his arm is healed and can hold up for a season. So we will lose both but lucky for us b/c the bullpen and closer market for trades and free agents are deeper than ever this offseason.

What is not is right-handed hittting power hitters and Starting pitching which is why I would sell high on Kenshin Kawakami. Even though his record wasn’t strong he still could help a team like the A’s, Padres, Twins, or Pirates and become their #2 or 3 starter in any of those teams rotations.

Also for the money we are paying him, we simply cannot continue to use KK out of the bullpen in long relief that is just silly to pay that much for a guy that is not going to pitch on a guranteed regular schedule.

Needs are as follows:

1. Right Handed Power Hitting OF
2. Proven Closer
3. 1B & LaRoche situation
4. bullpen arms

Either way this offseason is going to be fun.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 7, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

u didnt even address what i said, except in saying I was wrong…. i doubt we will retain both of them, but that even furthers points to me being right (along with many others) in saying we should offer both arbitration

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 7, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, Gonzalez is just a setup man.

That’s why his save percentage is up around 90%, right?

Please do tell me how the closer market is so “deep.”

Finally, how would trading a guy you kicked out of your rotation for a TJ rehabber be “selling high?”

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Ideas Mcann's the Man

I still would like to have Capps but since we trade and good history with both organizations it should be interesting. I don’t think we can get both. Capps is still my top choice b/c he is a true closer and has been one for longer in his career. However I would take Wuertz as well.

Man forget it just trade for both great post man love the idea of Wuertz still would like to know his contract status if you have it.

Go Braves.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 7, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wuertz is under control one more season.

by graf on Oct 7, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

closer

I think gonzo’s arm will be stronger thiscoming year and would rather have him . But Smoltziesaid hewould go back to closing last week in St. Louis and if he is willing why not sign him to 3 mill contract with incentives based on saves and games pitched to get it near 8 million .

by ~~banditwolf~~ on Oct 7, 2009 3:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

u can’t give a contract based on performance, so yoiu can’t have incentives for saving games… you could have an incentive for game played tho

just FYI

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 7, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could also have a games finished clause.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Saito had a great yr. Throw him out there as an option

by graf on Oct 7, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the front office should atleast

Offer Soriano arbitration, but do so after resigning Gonzo to a multiyear deal. I don’t care if they have to trade Javy, release Church & Johnson just to meet the payroll requirements. You don’t let go of talent as good as Soriano without getting some kind of compensation in return.

by RaffyGonzo on Oct 7, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think both need to get offered.

Gonzo, in particular, is set to get a far better offer than arb. would award him, and with the market so thin, I can’t imagine Soriano would be in any different a situation.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Soriano worries me for some reason. I can’t put a “stat” as to why – just a gut feeling he won’t be able to do next year what he did this year.

I think Moylan should have a shot at closer and Gonzo as the set up guy.

by NCChopper on Oct 9, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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