Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #2

by gondeee on Oct 6, 2009 10:30 AM EDT Comment 46 comments

We continue our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Two: What do the Braves do with six starting pitchers?

It's a good problem to have, six starting pitchers. Especially the six starters that we have, all of them of proven quality (though at least one did not show that quality this season). This assumes, of course, that the Braves will pick up the 2010 option on Tim Hudson's contract, and that Hudson (was has the right to void the option and become a free agent) will accept the option. Most baseball people think that he'll stay here, but we could see the Braves decline the option and try to work out a multi-year deal for less money per year. The problem there is getting insurance on a contract of a player who has just come off major surgery. My guess is that the Braves pick up his option for next year and leave it at that.

Then we really do have six starting pitchers, and six really good starting pitcher. One would think that Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are safe and will make up the core of the Braves staff for the next half-decade. I did propose that the Braves trade Jurrjens last month, and that is still an idea in the back of my mind, though watching how well JJ pitched down the stretch I hope that it never happens.

Of course, I believe it was Terry Francona who said a couple of years ago, "When you think you have enough pitching, go get more." The Braves certainly know how important depth in starting pitching can be after the debacle of 2008, but that doesn't mean a team can keep multimillion dollar starters waiting in the wings in case of injury. As much as some may want to go into spring training with six starters, just in case one gets injured, I don't think that's going to happen. The guys we have are making too much money, and because of the financial burden of keeping three starters making over $10 million and another making over $6 million, the Braves will be forced to trade one of that group of starters that includes Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Javier Vazquez, and Tim Hudson.

The odds are best that Vazquez is the guy to go.

There's not much of a chance that the Braves can trade Hudson -- he wouldn't agree to that contract option if he knew he was going to be traded, and he's approaching 10-and-5 status, so he may be able to veto any trade pretty soon, if not already. Lowe and his contract are probably untradeable, especially after he put up some pretty ugly numbers this season. Kawakami could be desirable to some teams, as he settled down after a rough first month, but he still could be viewed as an unknown quantity, and he's not the number-1 or number-2 type starter that would return the kind of impact bat we are likely looking for.

Add to this question the principal idea of the first question (the Braves need a big power bat), then take a look at the weak free agent class, and how much you'd have to pay a guy like Holliday or Bay, and the only option for the Braves seems to be to trade for a bat and to use this surplus of starting pitching to do that. And unfortunately, the best candidate may be Javier Vazquez.

If the Braves were to try and keep Vazquez and re-sign him to a multi-year deal they'd be doing so at the height of his value, and that might cost the team more than he's worth. On a similar note, trading him now would be trading him at the height of his value, and the return should be better than at any other time. As I said in an article a month ago, trading him will be difficult as he has a no-trade to any west coast team, and he's burned bridges in Chicago, New York, and Arizona, and that leaves very few teams who would still want him and can afford him.

Another factor in determining if we have the depth to trade starters will be how well Mike Minor fares in the Arizona Fall League. He is supposed to be close to major league ready, and if he has a good AFL season, then that would be more minor league depth to go with Jo-Jo Reyes and Todd Redmond.

It will be strange this off-season to watch the team try and get rid of starting pitching, as opposed to last off-season when they were so desperate to get as much starting pitching as they could. I just hope we don't go all out in our pursuit of a right-handed bat this year, like we did last year in our pursuit of starting pitching, when we seemingly forgot that there were other needs facing this team. Speaking of other needs...

Coming up later, Question Three: Who will be the Braves closer in 2010?

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Javier Vasquez

I cannot see the Braves trading Javy. He is our #1 starter and is the best starter we have had in a while. Smoltlz was great and Huddy is wonderful but a strikeout inning eater like Javy is hard to come by. In this article you are also assuming that we try and trade a pitcher for a power bat but that may not be the case. We may just need to unload some money and maybe then trade Diaz, Cody Johnson, . . . for a power bat. I think that would be a smarter idea for the team assuming that someone would trade for Lowe.

by Dlass008 on Oct 6, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Diaz and Cody Johnson will NEVER get us a power bat.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WRT the Value thing

I don’t buy it. The Braves don’t have any secret information about how valuable he actually is and is likely to be, all the clubs know this. If the Braves were to trade Vazquez, they would presumably get what he’s worth in return. Not a whole lot more. No baseball team is going to be completely tricked by his career year. It’s not fantasy baseball. Clubs are able to gauge value very well. (Except the Royals).

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 6, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vasquez for Greinke? Straight up

by acie4mvp on Oct 6, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only if they include Billy Butler

by blitzerlover on Oct 6, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...

Matthews, Gary?
Beltre, Adrian?
Chavez, Eric?
Hall, Bill?
Byrnes, Eric?
Willis, Dontrelle?
Guillen, Jose?
Millwood, Kevin?

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it’s JJ or Vazquez who has to go, I hope we keep Vazquez.

Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.

by VivaLosBravos on Oct 6, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Vazquez over a 23 Y.O. pitcher who just put up a 2.60 ERA who will also be around for another 4+ years and cost well below what Javy is making. I’d rather keep JJ.

by Jay212033 on Oct 6, 2009 5:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

He's got more trade value and shaky peripherals

Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.

by VivaLosBravos on Oct 7, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As opposed to Vazquez, who has unrepeatable peripherals he's never approached before?

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please, no Jojo Reyes...

we’ve seen what he does as a starter, and it’s not good. Kris Medlen and Jorge Campillo, among others, would be my choice for 5th starter wll before Reyes, that is if we end up needing someone to step in that spot.

And Tim Hudson just finished his 5th full season on the Braves roster, so I guess that would make him 10/5.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 6, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You know he's only 24, right?

There are plenty of guys who turn into 5th-starter material much older than that. The guy’s got a sub-3 ERA his last two years in AAA. That doesn’t happen by accident.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet Bruce Chen had similar numbers...

he’s been rocked at the major league level for the most part. “That doesn’t happen by accident” either.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 9, 2009 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, no.

He never had a minor league year above low A with an ERA under 3. Further, he’s just the type of #5 guy I’m talking about. His career ML numbers are actually not terrible. Sub-5 era, 1.40 WHIP, W/L % close to .500.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 9, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, if Minor League #s meant a thing,...

Chuck James would be Tim Lincecum.

And I was talking about Jojo Reyes getting rocked in the bigs. Near 200 innings pitched and an ERA near 6, a batting avg against near .300, 31 HR allowed in 40 games pitched. Have you ever heard the term “AAAA player”?

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 9, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

trading JJ would be a horrible decision because of his value compared to how much he’s making…if Lowe doesn’t get traded, which i doubt he will…i would say the best decision would be not to pick up Huddy’s option..Vazquez is way more valuable at this point and that would leave us a good bit of money to pick up a big bat in the offseason…i would be pretty confident in..

Vazquez
JJ
Hanson
Lowe
KK

and Medlen as a 6th starter if needed

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 6, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pick up Huddy’s option, move Lowe to the CP spot and put KK back in the rotation.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Oct 6, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

In a vaccuum,

I agree to this 100%. But would Derek agree to that?

by eaheckman10 on Oct 6, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it possible to suspend a player without pay? Or perhaps fine them 15 million a season for the next 3?

by acie4mvp on Oct 6, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just hope they retain Huddy long term. He’s been a great Brave, in the community and on the field. I think we’ll see more vintage Hudson in 2010. This year was just getting his feet wet after TJ surgery.

I guess the dream scenario would be to trade Lowe, but that will require the Braves to eat some salary, which they won’ t likely do. So i agree with Gondee, in that Javy will likely be the odd man out.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Oct 6, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Vintage?"

With the Braves, that’s about a 3 WAR pitcher. $12 mil is a lot to spend for that given his potential downside.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m seeing a Yahoo rumor (FWIW) that says that the Braves are looking to trade Lowe. I know, good luck with that, but it makes a lot more sense than trading Vazquez at this point. The other choice would be to let Lowe work out of the bullpen as closer. I’d be very happy with a rotation of Hudson, JJ, Javy, KK and Hanson (not necessarily in that order), and Lowe would allow us to pass on Soriano and/or Gonzalez.

by John Holton on Oct 6, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That’s only the case if you’re certain Lowe can’t be useful as a starter, which i don’t really think is a fair assumption.

Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.

by VivaLosBravos on Oct 6, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He certainly kept us in plenty of ballgames.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we could also move KK, and we probably wouldn’t have to eat any of his salary, would that not be a viable option?

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 6, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It would be hard to get back much value for him.

What kind of message are you sending to the market when you send him to the pen for a stretch run?

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can’t trade J.J. or T.H. If they both stay healthy you have #1 and #1A for the next 10 years or so. J.V. needs to stay,also. Whatever it takes D.L. needs to be odd man out even if it means eating some contract. Don’t think he’s closer material anymore and the Braves aren’t going to pay him 15 mil to be the long man. He was, by far, the weakest link down the stretch.

by coltzfan on Oct 6, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am soo soo sick of...

…smart people like Gondeee and others saying Vazquez would be the best canidate even when their own words contradict them.

1. The best landing spots like LAA, LAD, TEX etc are all in the West to which he cannot be traded.
2. He has failed in the ALC and ALE in the past so his value to those divisions would be far below his value to us.
3. That leaves the NLC and NLE to trade him to. HOU, CHC, CIN, STL, PIT, WSH, and FLA aren’t even close to matching up money/prospect/big-bat wise and I seriously doubt we trade our #1 ace to PHI or NYM. That only leaves MIL but that isn’t a perfect match money wise and we aren’t going to get Braun or two years of Fielder for 1yr of 12M Vazquez.

Pardon my French, but it would be really fucking retarded to trade our #1 219IP 238K 2.87ERA 1.026WHIP ACE for a marginal return from extremely limited suitors just to chase some mythical ‘big bat’ in FA.

What we should be doing is talking about what his extention shoud look like. I say 3/30 looks fantastic for both sides.

by bbxxj on Oct 6, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well put...

If Lowe is difficult to move, then how is Vasquez easy? Lowe had a bit of a downturn in his numbers, but he still pitched near 200 innings with 15 wins. Plus, his numbers before the June start vs. Baltimore were pretty strong.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 6, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. Lowe is tradeable and should be traded. Just because he had a down year doesn’t mean he can’t be moved. What we will be able get back is another question.

by fandave on Oct 6, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t even care if he was Rios-ed. 15M would be huge in retaining our bulpen strength and in our search for a RH power hitter via trade or FA.

by bbxxj on Oct 6, 2009 1:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Even if they cut him, that money wouldn’t come off the books. He’s guaranteed 15 mil for the next few years and that’s on the payroll unless you trade him.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 6, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought if he was waived...

and someone picked him up, they pick up his salary/current contract with it. I thought that’s what the Blue Jays did to Alex Rios.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 6, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only way it really works like that, though, is August.

You can’t pull a guy back of waivers if he goes unclaimed at any point in the year.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was refering to the part where the Jays didn’t get anything in return other than the Sox taking all of his salary. I wasn’t talking about waiving him per se.

If we did waive him we could see if anyone claimed him though. If someone does then let them have him, if more than two do then get the best prospect, and if noone does pull him back off waivers and go another route.

by bbxxj on Oct 6, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vazquez will never go for 3/$30 mil.

If Lowe was a $15 million pitcher, Vazquez can get that and more.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best case scenario:

1) Trade Lowe
2) Decline Hudson’s option then re-sign him to a cheaper multi-year deal

Next best:

1) Trade Kawakami
2) Decline Hudson’s option then re-sign him to cheaper multi-year deal

The Braves aren’t going to be able to trade one year of Vasquez for somebody like Adrian Gonzalez, so even if they wanted to trade him (which I hope they don’t), they wouldn’t get what they need back in return. Far better to keep your best pitcher from 2009 and find some other way to fill your offensive needs and clear the pitching logjam.

I suppose they might be able to trade Jurrjens for Gonzalez. I’d hate to see JJ go, but it would probably be worth it to trade him for a top 5 first baseman. Jurrjens, Freeman, and two or more lesser minor league players for Gonzalez? Or even expand it and get Heath Bell too to fill the closer need?

People say Lowe can’t be traded with zero evidence. It’s just like all those people who said Francoeur couldn’t be traded and then he was. If the Braves are willing to chip in some cash or take a similarly bad contract back, there should be more than a few teams willing to take a chance that Lowe returns to his 2008 form. I don’t see how the Braves can afford to keep Lowe and risk that 2009 is how he will pitch from here on for $16 mil/year.

by redwards95 on Oct 6, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hudson said he expects the money from the option to be a part of any extension.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t see how we get fair value back for Vazquez. Teams rarely seem to trade a top hitter for a top pitcher, or vice-versa, because teams looking for top players are usually trying to contend and don’t want to give up key pieces at the same time. This is why top players usually get traded for prospects from teams that feel they cannot contend or pay at that time.

Vazquez just had a near cy young caliber year and is signed for very reasonable value. Equal value would demand an all star caliber slugger in return. Who would simultaneously be looking for a top pitcher and willing to give up one of their best hitters? This is before one even considers the many teams which we wouldn’t be able to trade Javy to. So if we do trade this guy, who just had an unbelievable year, we are gonna probably not be happy with the return.

Perhaps it’s possible that we could just give away Lowe or KK in a salary dump. I think Lowe still has plenty of promise, but his contract is way too scary to actually want to keep him for that given his performance this year. Maybe we could give him away for absolutely nothing. Likewise, KK just showed some promise, but we really wouldn’t want to keep him for that salary. It is conceivable that a team would take him at that for nothing though. While that doesn’t seem desirable, it is better than giving away Hudson for nothing rather than re-upping him for his option or to a multi-year deal.

I think we will probably keep 6 or just let Hudson go, which would be too bad. It seems unlikely that we could swing a good deal for anyone. Of course with Wren, nothing would surprise me.

by Sir Stealth on Oct 6, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Javy

We need to keep him . I’ve been saying all along they need to trade Lowe even if it includes paying 5 million a year to get rid of him . Why not see if the Tigers will bite and we get Maggy back with Tigers paying the extra 2 to 3 million difference . We solve there problem of getting rid of him we solve ours by getting a right handed hitting outfielder with 20 plus home run power . Who will be a free agent at the end of next year when we can let him walk . I’d like to see KK stats against number 1 , 2 and 3 pitchers he pitched against i thought he stepped it up against better pitchers .

by ~~banditwolf~~ on Oct 7, 2009 2:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ordonez was awful for most of the year.

If it’s a risk to keep Lowe around at his price, it’s even worse to think about holding on to Magglio.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Call me crazy

But a Lowe for Bradley swap does not look too bad from Atlanta’s perspective.

by RaffyGonzo on Oct 7, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Crazy.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 7, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

INSANE…

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are crazy.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope we keep JJ no matter what. He and Tommy are our future.
I’d keep Javy & Huddy and get rid of Lowe if possible.

I’d move KK back to the starting rotation and if we can’t trade Lowe, put him in the BP for long relief and if a SP gets injured. I know that’s an expensive option for a BP arm, but if you can’t trade him and get stuck with his contract, makes no sense to spend the money and let him lose games too.

by NCChopper on Oct 9, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs