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John Sickels' top-20 Braves prospects

Our first Atlanta Braves top prospect list is out from a major prospect guru. This first one from John Sickels, here are his top-20 Braves prospects:

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Julio Teheran
  4. Randall Delgado
  5. Craig Kimbrel
  6. Mike Minor
  7. Christian Bethancourt
  8. J.J. Hoover
  9. Zeke Spruill
  10. David Hale
  11. Mycal Jones
  12. Brett DeVall
  13. Cory Gearrin
  14. Adam Milligan
  15. Jose Ortegano
  16. Robinson Lopez
  17. Luis Valdez
  18. Edgar Osuna
  19. Scott Diamond
  20. Dimaster Delgado

Visit his site for his commentary on each of these guys. It's a good list. A little high for Hale and Jones, I think. Good inclusion of Robinson Lopez, I think we'll be seeing a lot of him on lists this year. Notice the absence of Cody Johnson, who Sickels says he "doesn't believe in" because of the strikeouts -- a very valid fear.

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I like the highish ranking for Hale

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but no CJ or Rohrbough?

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who the hell is David Hale?

I dont think i’ve ever heard his name mentioned before lol could someone give me a scouting report on him? Hell, i don’t even know what position he plays.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 6:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Princeton reliever we drafted in the second round in 2009. Hard thrower, but didn’t get many innings in this year, so many will probably wait until next year to fully judge him.

by gondeee on Oct 25, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Make that third round… he was OUR second pick.

by gondeee on Oct 25, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ohhh

thanks! Yeah, I remember him now. I kept thinking about previous years top-20 lists and couldn’t remember ever seeing his name; it would make sense since we just drafted him.

I don’t know much about him, but it does seem a little high to put him #10 after not really pitching in 2009.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yet he's top 10,...

and a guy who raked at 20 in high A isn’t even listed? I know Cody strikes out a lot, but his age/level leads me to think he at least deserves mention.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is Cody Johnson not on this list?

I dont get it. Yeah, he struck out a lot, but he has incredible power and played on a horrible team for most of the season.

I’d take him easily over Lopez, Valdez, Osuna, Diamond and Delgado. I expected to see him in the 10-15 range.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Power is nothing if you cant hit the ball.

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, ya.

But still, the power is obviously there. It’s hard for me to believe a guy like Osuna is a better “prospect” than CJ is.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 7:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

He hit the ball enough to be leading the Carolina League in home runs (32), RBI (84) and slugging percentage (.520) as of his late season promotion to Mississippi.

by fandave on Oct 25, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts exactly

he didn’t hit for a high average, but 32HRs with a .500+ slugging percentage should get you on any top-20 prospect list. I dont care who you are

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That makes me question the whole list. I don’t care if you don’t like strikeouts, if you ignore that kind of power, so much so that he doesn’t even rank on the top 20 for you, then you might not know what you’re talking about.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 25, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sickels is pretty damn good, there are just a few instances like this where he lets his biases get in the way

by McCann's the Man on Oct 25, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah his biasness is irritating cause when the first year he did the list with Teheran after he got signed and everything he said he doesn’t put those type of players cause they are all hype on the top 20 then sits there and puts Inoa of the A’s on the top 20 and it was the same circumstance. I dont get it sometimes…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re right, he left Teheran off last year. Again, I’m not thinking much of this guy. Teheran was every bit as good a prospect prior to the season as he was after the season, he was just more proven after. That’s just being scared with your projections.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was every bit as good as Inoa who he put on the list instead of Teheran that was soooooooooo stupid.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously. At least Teheran had pitched, which Ynoa has yet to do.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has I count 6 guys who've...

yet to play a full season at the professional level. Guys with little upside (Diamond?), who are rather new/raw, and one with an injury that will keep him from even playing next year. But let’s leave off a guy who at 20 led his high A league in multiple power categories, with no help for a good chunk of the year, in a notorious pitchers park, because he strikes out a lot?

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's pretty much why he doesn't like to rank those guys

It’s really hard to get any sort of handle on which of the latin guys is for real, and which is not, so he ignores them when he can.

He couldn’t ignore Inoa because he was paid unprecedented money, and everyone said he was an unprecedented talent. Then, just a year later, nobody knows what the hell’s going on with him. People think he’s probably injured or maybe it’s just something to do with his family … or whatever.

Sickels is not being “scared.” He’s being honest, and in doing so, protecting his professional reputation. He’s not some random fan spouting opinions based on nothing other than Baseball America, his gut and stats gleaned from minorleaguesplits.com. He’s a guy who makes a living watching prospects play and talking to the people who coach and scout them, and then sharing that information with the public.

He doesn’t see the Latin guys. And my guess is he doesn’t have too many sources who see these Latin guys. So he doesn’t really know what’s going on with them, and doesn’t pretend otherwise.

by OldDutchPots on Oct 26, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All that’s great, but it still doesn’t excuse ignoring Cody Johnson, which is unforgivable.

And I don’t care what anybody says, no matter how much he makes, there’s no way Sickles is seeing even half of the players for each minor league system in a year, much less all of them.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right, he doesn't see most of the players he ranks,

But he does talk to lots and lots of scouts and coaches who do, and has done so for over a decade, and he can use their opinion of players he does see to figure out who’s bullsh*tting him. It doesn’t mean his opinion is law, but in an area where everyone has an opinion and almost everybody’s is based on nothing but box scores, it’s important to recognize the people who really do know what they’re talking about and not attack their character just because we disagree with them.

Also, he didn’t ignore Cody Johnson. Cody is an honorable mention on this list, so I’m sure he’ll be written up in the book that Sickels uses these free top 20 lists to promote. He just felt that, despite the power, Cody was not as likely to contribute to the major league team as much as some of the fringy control type pitchers who fill up the bottom of the list.

It’s a ranking you and I can disagree with him about, but “unforgivable” seems a bit strong considering Cody Johnson did strike out in 40% of his at bats in A ball. No matter how young he is, that’s still a huge, huge number.

It’s possible to prefer 5% Moyer, 15% Suppan, 20% Ohman, 20% Carlyle, 40% nobody to 5% Howard, 15% Rob Deer, 80% Thorman.

by OldDutchPots on Oct 26, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

35%. And it’s still unforgivable to ignore 32 home runs out of a 20 year old.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 27, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He didn't ignore them.

He considered them. And decided that his other limitations make the risk outweigh the upside. It’s not difficult stuff, people.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 27, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not having him in the top 20 when he should be in the top 10 is ignoring him.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 27, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“He couldn’t ignore Inoa because he was paid unprecedented money, and everyone said he was an unprecedented talent.”

Thats not a reason to sit there and say im not gonna rank Teheran top 20 casue he just has hype right now then later on ranks Inoa top 10 actually but its ok to rank him even though he is ALL hype as well. Its just a BS excuse bottom line. I have no problem whatsoever with Sickels, but you cant honestly defend him for that he looked like a bigot plain and simple…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He didn’t seem impressed with the system and called it overrated. Alot of what would be our upper level talent is playing in the high minors or majors with other clubs. Flowers, Feliz, Morton, Andrus, Jones, Locke, Gorkys. Some have played very well. They aren’t all playing well but their at the very least talented guys looking to rebound. I think he should have been expecting that hole in the upper levels to a degree.

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he always thinks the Braves system is overrated.

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 25, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ha

its not like the Braves system hasn’t produced much…

Brian McCann
Adam LaRoche
Kelly Johnson
Martin Prado
Yunel Escobar
Chipper Jones

Our whole f’ing infield was developed by the Braves.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adam Wainwright as well

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh and Tommy Hanson as well, the list could go on and on, he prolly loves the Yanks system lol.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

I was just trying to prove a point by showing the Braves system always develops guys

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 26, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know and i was helpin you out by namin guys myself lol.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i just think he thinks the braves prospects are overrated… and occasioanlyl they are … and he may overcompensate for that at times (i.e. not havign Heyward in the top 5 to start the year).

he doesnt have it out for the Braves and He’s not really a fan of anyone as far as i can tell

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 26, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is a Twins fan

by yondaime4 on Oct 26, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Betcha he thinks Ron Gant was out

when the bastard Hrbek tried to lift him off the mat for a suplex. F" the cheatin Twins. I wish they had been redacted a few years ago.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sickels

Doesn’t have it in for Atlanta, nor does he have any bias I’ve ever been able to discern against the Braves system. On the whole, he’s one of the most credible experts around. (Which isn’t to say he gets it always right; he, along with many, completely whiffed on Andy Marte.)

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you have read Sickels for a while you will know that he respects the Braves farm system and its production of talent. Whenever he does his annual lists he always produces the Braves list second behind the Twins. He has nothing but admiration for the job that the Braves organization does in accumulating and developing talent. The one thing that he says is that Braves pitchers sometimes get overhyped because of the organizations past achievements. He didn’t list Teheran in the past because of injury concerns and his ranking of Cody Johnson has cause quite a stir among Braves fans this year, but the guy strikes out like you and I breathe. Overall I think Sickels does a good job with his lists, though he does tend to be a little conservative, but that ain’t a bad thing in today’s society.

by JFP on Oct 26, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Plus, he gave Teheran a C+ last year; it isn’t like he ignored him. Julio just didn’t make the top 20 because Sickels considered the rest of the system to just be that deep.

by aCone419 on Oct 26, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well he said comments like he doesn’t put guys with all hype and nothin else much on the top 20 but yet put Inoa on the A’s top 20 and they have a better system than us at the time so excuses excuses for the guy, i have no problem with the guy but he looked like a huge bigot…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He gave Inoa a B- (which was WAAAAAAY lower than the other outlets had him) and Teheran a C+. The grades are much more important than the specific rankings, as he makes clear at the top of the list.

The idea that he is “bigoted” against the Braves is ludicrous.

by aCone419 on Oct 28, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn’t say it was “against” the Braves i just said he looked like a bigot by doin that and he did, if you dont agree then fine but he did look like a bigot…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 28, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anybody becoming a bit worried about our system?

I’m not talking about for this year necessarily, but imagine this list without Heyward on it. You look down the list and there aren’t a lot of guys with real impact potential. Specifically, Freeman is the only one who may project as a major league position player who has had much experience out of rookie ball. None of our young pitchers have been impressive as say Rohrbough was a few years ago, and many of them have had real command issues.

Its expected (trades and graduation), and it might not matter much considering we still have a young MLB team, but I certainly feel less confident then I did a few years ago when our 2nd or 3rd round picks from the most recent year were slotting in around 25-35 rather than 10-20. We certainly can’t expect a lot of help for the big club over the next few years through the system.

That said, I would have put Jacob Thompson, Cody Johnson, and Brandon Hicks near the bottom of the top 20.

by abravesfan on Oct 25, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This past draft

Didn’t do much to boost the system. The Braves drafted a bunch of older college players that went against what they usually do which is draft plenty projectable HS players. Hopefully we can get back on track next season with our drafts, we may have several 1st and supplemental 1st rd picks this upcoming draft.

by Jay212033 on Oct 26, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hicks

I was a little surprised that Sickels left Hicks out, in favor of some of the 09 guys. Perhaps he’ll squeak in on the strength of his AFL performance.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's dissing on Cody like crazyyyy

MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...

by nick9314 on Oct 25, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cody definitely deserves top 20 for his power potential alone and I’m a little dissapointed with Milligan ranking so low, other than that no big issues with the list

by McCann's the Man on Oct 25, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

why does power automatically get you a ranking?

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

cause he perhaps has the best power in the entire minors thats why and he seems to be progressin and thats alot of homers he hit in one of the largest pitcher parks in the minors…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i guess i just dont see the appeal

i just dont like hitters who cant hit. maybe im underestimating him, but we shall see.

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well he was 20 years old puttin up those numbers especially the big time homers like that his power is unlimited with potential and his OBP was pretty solid as well. You know i guess i like players that improve at an above level they were in…

Johnson in Low A: .307 OBP, 479 SLG, .786 OPS, 26 homers

Johnson in High A: .345 OBP, .517 SLG, .861 OPS, 32 homers in perhaps one of if not the biggest minor league park in the minors.

Her is some more if your not satisfied yet…

Johnson in Low A: 127 games, 468 AB’s, 62 Runs, 118 hits, 89 RBI’s, 224 TB’s

Johnson in High A: 122 games, 422 AB’s, 59 Runs, 102 hits, 84 RBI’s, 218 TB’s

If you cant tell how much of an improvement he is doin then nothin else needs to be said about this to you. But hey call me a sucker but i like when “young” guys improve against tougher competition…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again,

Only time will tell. But until then color me not Impressed

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 9:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Im not sayin he will make it either i dont know but what i do know and like is how he developed from year to year goin against tougher competition thats always a good sign.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And it's a good point

But I’ll have to see him do it at mississippi to think about changing my opinion on him. I know hes got talent, and he’s improving, but so far from what i’ve seen, I’m not liking his chances to be a productive major league player. I would rank him around 13 in our system.

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 10:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

fair point. 2010 will tell alot about Cody.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“we shall see” – exactly. it all depends on what he does from here. there were encouraging signs this year, but a lot depends on how he does over the next couple of years

"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."

by Bravely going forward on Oct 25, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it doesn’t automatically but Johnson has arguably the highest HR potential in the minors and he also has a pretty nice OBP. I find it hard to see how dominance in that category alone doesn’t get him into the top 20 of our system. I’m not arguing for a top 10 spot but Cody’s ceiling is light years ahead of a guy like D. Delgado

by McCann's the Man on Oct 25, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cody

Has no chance in Atlanta unless he dramaticly cuts down his strikeouts .

by ~~banditwolf~~ on Oct 25, 2009 10:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but Frenchy was given every opportunity?

i mean…Frenchy was worse at every level but Johnson is better at every level and Cody can’t even sniff the top-20 of a system that is, honestly, out of the top-10 in the majors?

that’s silly. Johnson’s odds of ever being a MLB contributor are small, but not as small as many of you think.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 26, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can he field at a major league level?...

the top 5 LF prospects seems to put that in doubt. Maybe he is a Flowers at best, a trade piece to an AL club with the option to DH him. Let him bash 30+ HRs as a 22 yr old in AA, and see what kind of return he can bring.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This

Everyone rationalizes away the strikeouts, but that isn’t Cody’s only problem. His defense is not good and doesn’t show mcu hhope of improving.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, from what I’ve seen, like his batting, his defense has improved every year. The guy was mostly a 1B in HS, so the OF was new to him as a pro. He has a strong accurate arm, even if he’s still a little slow and awkward in the field. Frankly, if he hits 35 to 40 bombs a year in the Majors, even if he’s striking out 200 times, his defense will be more than acceptable.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like your view on his defense is the minority one. I haven’t seen him myself, and I’m not aware of publicly-available advanced fielding metrics for the minors (although I’m sure teams have propietary data).

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Majority vs Minority

The difference is, CB actually sees most of our guys in person multiple times each season…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I saw Cody 4 times this year, spread over the year, twice last year, and I think three times the year before. I’m really not kidding when I say nobody has shown more prominent development in the system.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I’ll be interested in seeing how that development continues.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, I know that. But I put very little stock in ad hoc visual observation by fans (no offense CB).

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s cool. I personally think analysis of Minor League stats is ridiculously overrated. Unlike the Majors, so much of the stats in the minors are context based; you have to look at the age of the player, the level of competition, their particular goals as a player, the numbers are just the start. They certainly tell something, but nowhere near as much as they do at the top level.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think those are all fair points. I guess the tension on Cody is that his youth and ARL suggest he may still have time to correct his flaws, but typically it gets harder and harder to improve on those flaws as you move up in the system (and the longer they go unfixed).

BTW, I did a little digging. Far from a good sample size, but there’s some data to suggest Cody got a little better in LF last year. This is an advanced metric created by the Chone guy, which adds up all LDs, FBs, and GBs hit at a player and assesses plays made above and below mean. It’s not an ideal gauge, but it’s the best I think we currently have. While Cody’s certainly not going to be mistaken for Willie Mays any time soon, it does look like in 09 (don’t know if it’s full season data), Cody went from “Jack Cust like” status in LF to “Garrett Anderson like.”

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, those are two great guys to be compared to. But it’s probably true. And I’m sure if Anderson knocked in 32 homers and 82 RBIs this year, there would have been a lot less talk about his crap play in LF.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn’t cite the source (sorry) but Cody was roughly 20 runs below average in his time in the minors last year, in other words pretty damn bad

by McCann's the Man on Oct 26, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

zone rating by the way

by McCann's the Man on Oct 26, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, and also see the link to Jeff Sackman’s site that I posted above. Seems like his true level is probably somewhere in between Holy-Jesus-he’s-a-statue-out-there and You-know-what-he’s-not bad-as-long-as-he-hits.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Oct 26, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Someone asked Sickels about Johnson in the thread
I’ll think more about it but I am a johnson skeptic. he has maybe a 20% chance to be Russ Branyan and about an 80% chance of doing nothing.

I’d go more like 5% Adam Dunn, 20% Branyan, 75% nothing, but I basically agree with him. 80 power is easy to fall in love with, but if you don’t have any primary offense to go with it, you’ll never make it as a regular in MLB.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 26, 2009 1:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I trully believe

Cody Johnson will be a force in the majors. He has done nothing but get better. He has almost similar numbers to Ryan Howard in the minors and as he matures and grows he will only get better. Once he gets through his mind that no one actually wants to pitch to him he will start walking more and cutting down on those strikeouts.

by drumzalicious on Oct 26, 2009 1:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

his strike out percentage has only increased as he has moved up the ladder.

by yondaime4 on Oct 26, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

He’s gotten better at the things he was already good at but hasn’t made much progress in the things he struggles with. Not a recipe for success, especially considering his limitations.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 26, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From 34% last year to 35% this year? Not really an increase.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

so have his...

BB, OBP, OPS and SLG (not counting rookie ball).

your point?

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 26, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll make it.

His contact rates are so poor he’s not going to be able to sustain his secondary, or primary, offense even in the upper minor leagues, much less MLB.

Hitters can strike out that often and be successful in MLB, but we’re talking about a guy striking out that much in the Carolina League. Very unlikely that his bat will play in MLB with those contact rates.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 26, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he learns to shorten up his swing some and makes more consistent contact, then the Ks may be brought down to a more acceptable level.

The kid was drafted a raw project and has just turned 21. Its not like he’s a finished, polished product at this point in time.

by fandave on Oct 26, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is also assuming...

the swing he has at age 20 is as good as he’ll get. The counter still remains, he is relatively young for the level he played at, and is making adjustments. He can stagnate for the next 2 years at AA before making the neccessary strides he needs to make in his swing to get it near big league caliber, and at that point he’d still be younger than Ryan Howard was in AA when he was striking out at a similar rate to Johnson last year.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

I won’t assume he’ll make the adjustments, though. I’m yet to see him make any.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 26, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s a bold non-assumption…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it?

Why? I’ll let him show me what he’s capable of, not rate him based on a perfect world scenario. It’s much more bold to assume he will make the necessary adjustments.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We drafted him out of high school as a super raw power hitter. A few seasons later, he is already in AA as a 20 year old…

The fact that he is moving up a level a season and keeping up (shouldn’t he be at A- hitting .188?) is proof enough to me…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you’re only seeing the stats. Trust me, his swing is radically different from a couple of years ago. He’s made huge adjustments.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Oct 26, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cody, himself, discussing his weaknesses...

Baseball Beginnings: The Braves like to get them while they’re young, and you were 17 when you signed. What was it like to begin playing professionally so early?

Johnson: It was a bit of a culture shock when I first signed, just going from high school and the sheltered life, being 17 and out on your own for the first time. You have to be a professional on and off the field, while still being able to enjoy yourself and have fun. You can’t completely consume yourself with baseball because over six or seven months, it will drive you crazy. But you have to learn how to handle yourself on and off the field.

Baseball Beginnings: What about on the field?

Johnson: I feel like I’ve gotten better after each year. Physically I’ve gotten bigger and stronger and it has allowed me to do differing things at the plate. As a hitter, I’ve learned more about how pitchers are going to pitch me and what I have to do to make the adjustments to how they will pitch me.

Baseball Beginnings: What has been the biggest challenge for you as a hitter?

Johnson: I’d say adjusting to the different kinds of pitching. Coming out of high school, you don’t see any situational lefties coming in just to pitch to you. You don’t see fresh arms. You have to learn how they’re going to attack you and how to handle how they attack you. It’s an on-going thing.

Baseball Beginnings: What about defensively?

Johnson: That’s been an adventure. I was an infielder, a first baseman, in high school. The Braves flipped me out to left field. So it’s been about gradually learning the position. I’ve worked a lot with our outfield instructor, Lynn Jones, and he’s helped me come a long way. I feel a lot more comfortable and I give him the credit for making me a better outfielder. I feel a lot better than I used to out there and I think I’m getting better every day

Baseball Beginnings: How do you feel about your strikeout rates? You look like the kind of hitter who will probably always have some strikeouts to go with your game, but do you think that it’s something that can prevent you from becoming an everyday major league player?

Johnson: I’m comfortable with my strikeout rate this season because I feel like I’ve cut it down so much from last year. My goal last year was just to finish under 100 at the All-Star break. I had 98 strikeouts at the break and cut it down at the break to (79). So I feel like I’m learning the Carolina League and learning the pitchers and doing a better job of making contact. I think I’m better off than I was a year ago.

Baseball Beginnings: Do you feel confident enough that your power will play in the big leagues, but that you’ll need to raise the surrounding tools to at least average levels to be able to compete every day?

Johnson: Absolutely. Defense is probably the weakest part of my game, but I still feel like I can hold my own. I feel like I’ll be able to hold my own at the big league level. I think I’ll be able to hit.

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

nice find...

i wonder if he joins the big club in spring training next year. not saying he’d be there to win a job, but more curious do they have him in their camp or just minors.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

prob not

i would think they wait until he spends some time in AA. It might kill his confidence to be over-exposed

by drumzalicious on Oct 26, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just found this list…2010 top 10 prospects..kinda interesting

http://www.topprospectalert.com/2010atlantabravesprospects.htm

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 26, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is Mycal Jones really this good?...

he is #9 there. I thought he was decent, but surprised to see him listed so high after his #s and age in the short season.

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

idk, i was wondering the same thing..he’s pretty high on both lists

by Hcgadawgs on Oct 26, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brewer is a surprise there...

TPA has some random number 10s…I remember Tim Gustafson was number 10 on their list a few years back…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bad list if you ask me.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 27, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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