Braves' Jason Heyward injury update
by gondeee on Oct 24, 2009 10:14 AM EDT
28 comments
Talking Chop was the first Braves site to report that baseball's top prospect Jason Heyward was being slowed by an injury in the Arizona Fall League; we reported this on Thursday. The official Braves site has now chimed in to clarify exactly what the injury to Heyward is -- "a posterior leg injury" -- but still no word about how long he will be sidelined. There is an interesting note in that story which I think is worth repeating (my emphasis):
Because Heyward has recorded just 173 at-bats above Class A, there has been reason to wonder whether the Braves would be willing to allow him to start the 2010 season in the Majors. But the Braves have continued to provide reason to believe that they are definitely open to this possibility.
While that is not a concrete statement from the Braves front office, it is a statement from a beat writer who is around the team and team officials every day. That collection of knowledge is usually accurate when considering what decisions the team will make. This is a good indication of who will be our starting right fielder next year -- Jason Heyeward. Let's hope that the injury doesn't slow him too much longer and possibly change the team's plans.
As a side note, here is what the 2010 Bill James Handbook predicts for Heyward at the major league level next season:
| G | AB | H | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 146 | 542 | 164 | 86 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 78 | 59 | 64 | 11 | .303 | .371 | .465 |
...I surely hope so...
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them ROY stats there.
honestly. who else will put up those numbers? better still, who will put up those numbers as a player who STILL CAN’T LEGALLY buy a beer? nobody.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 24, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bill James is notoriously aggressive, especially for rookie/young hitters. Expecting that line will only set people up for disappointment.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Oct 24, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really, the only thing that is pretty high is the OBP which given Heyward’s amazing plate discipline isn’t very unlikely and he only has Heyward putting up 17 HRs and a .465 SLG%, neither of which is overly impressive from a corner OF (ignore the fact that he’s a rookie for a second). This would be a gigantic improvement over what we had in the OF last year
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well he also had KJ doin real good in 2009 as well so im gonna take this with a grain of salt. Thats why they play the game and not use simulations or formulas to determine players seasons.
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he also had KJ with a BABIP near his career average, which should be expected, nobody can predict that drastic a drop in luck. If you normalize Kelly’s BABIP then his line will start looking very similar to the projection
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if he had more hits he’d have a better average…and if he had more walks, he’d have a higher OBP…like rockybull said, that’s why they actually play the games.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Oct 24, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what are you talking about? James’ projection is much closer to KJ’s true talent level than his actual stats. Yes Heyward could get very unlucky and have a low BABIP but how can we predict these things, those numbers are essentially luck neutral
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
James’ projection is much closer to KJ’s true talent level than his actual stats
If you don’t understand why this statement doesn’t make sense, then we really can’t talk. You’re saying that somebody else’s guess about him is more accurate that what actually happened. Really?
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Oct 24, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol, CB when i was readin some of that i was like huh??? I was thinkin the same thing your thinkin bro.
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you actually think that KJ’s talent level is that of a .224 hitter then you’re right we shouldn’t talk. There is a difference between production and talent level. KJ’s true talent is much closer to his 2007 and 08 stats (which the 2010 projection looks similar to) than his 09 stats. You guys seriously can’t understand this?
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sigh… What me and CB are sayin is thats why they play the game and we take projections like this with a grain of salt, on field play will determine how they do. You seriously can’t understand this?
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i never said the projection was more important, which you seem to be implying, i merely stated that his talent level is closer to the projection than his 09 stats
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their projections generally hold up long term though. Go do some reading. It has some natural flaws but they predict performance better than any other system available. They are hitting 80% within a standard deviation of the mean line.
As for Kelly, he looked confused last year. The numbers suggest some bad luck but his approach was clearly different from what it had been the past 2 years. I think he could right himself over the offseason but he has work to do.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Oct 24, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously what the fuck are you and McCann’s the Man arguin with me about??? This is what i originally said:
“well he also had KJ doin real good in 2009 as well so im gonna take this with a grain of salt. Thats why they play the game and not use simulations or formulas to determine players seasons.”
That is all i said lol. I dont care about KJ low BABIP or stuff like that i really dont care, he projected KJ doin a better job than what he did, now he projects Heyward doin good; excuse me for sayin im gonna take what he said with a grain of salt. It doesn’t mean its not gonna happen im just gonna not care what people says their numbers are projected to have for the season im gonna watch them play in real life games and i hope like hell they have great seasons. Im not sayin Bill James is a moron and doesn’t know what he is talkin about, im sure the system he is usin is one of if not the best system you can possibly use im not doubtin that. Im just gonna watch and see how they do in real life games… if you two dont agree with what im sayin then thats fine but its no use arguin or debating it cause i just said my opinion of the thing…
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not even arguing the fact that Kelly didn’t play well this year. The bad luck likely contributed to part of Kelly’s failure but it doesn’t dismiss poor results. Your arguing that point with yourself, not me. My point was that the system generally works. It doesn’t have to be taken with a grain of salt. If we are talking about a projection based on statistical formulas that are functional, you can assume that the odds of Heyward being at or within a standard deviation of the projected line are about 80%.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Oct 24, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you know a site where i can see players from years past what he projected them to put up? Just wonderin about names like Jordan Schafer, Cameron Maybin, Andy Marte, Rick Ankiel(of 2009), Ryan Ludwick and the list goes on and on. Im just wonderin what he had them projected to do this year and a few years ago in Marte case. Im just curious. Im sure the guy has been right some but im sure that he has been wrong alot as well thats why i would like to see his past projections a site or somethin…
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs has projections. Here’s Bilingsley’s. Search for the player and click on “show projections” under standard stats
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5842&position=P
He does a good job of projecting general decline and rebounding. Health and playing time are the most problematic area. OPS, BB rate, and K rate he does well with pitchers.
Ludwick- line projection good, playing time and health were off
Ankiel- off completely
Andy Marte- perfect projection
Maybin- off on playing time and bad early slump. projection line was about right for the 2nd half
Schafer- was really just playing time as far as the lines go but performance was close to the projection line
Francoeur was a perfect projection.
Freddy Sanchez was a perfect projection.
Millwood- he was pretty close overall. Take out the insane low BABIP Millwood had for the first month plus and its dead on.
Swisher- very close
David Ortiz- way off
Jurrjens- way off
Billy Butler- predicted breakout
Pablo Sandoval- predicted breakout
Billingsley- predicted small step back
I’m trying to think of more guys who have had up and down years and also young guys. Those are the toughest to project.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will put it this way… For the most part a damn donkey can predict Pujols, A-Rod and greats like that “type” seasons and be damn close, some years a Chipper, Ortiz years will happen to some guys though. Tough part is predicting rookies comin into the league obviously. Guys that have been in the league for a few years you can get an idea about and predict how you want, Bill James for the most part can get close enough to numbers but really if you want me to i will predict some guys seasons for the 2010 season usin my OWN formula, send me some names and i will try to predict them, make sure it gets saved so we can view this at a later date, maybe All-Star game next season for a mid season report just dont give me rookies cause that will be much harder to predict, anything else is fair game, and it can be on any team. Like i said earlier im not gonna say im better than him cause im not but what im tryin to get at is he could be just as wrong as me in some cases, the numbers i give and he gives are pretty irrelevant cause the players will show off their skill sets and numbers by playin the damn game could have bad seasons could not you never know, but if you want you can send me guys names and i will try my best to get their numbers close to what they do next season whether that means they will do that or not cause of injury unproductiveness for whatever reason or whatever, we will see…
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should make an entire fanpost of this so it will be easier to find and get more people involved. I’ll pick some players and post it.
Numbers don’t always reflect skill set.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fanpost is up with players
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“I’m not even arguing the fact that Kelly didn’t play well this year. The bad luck likely contributed to part of Kelly’s failure but it doesn’t dismiss poor results. Your arguing that point with yourself, not me.”
Trust me im not arguin that with myself. I was pointin out that was McCanns the Mans arguement about KJ and thats why i said you and him instead of just you.
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 24, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im saying that just because his 09 projection got messed up by bad luck doesn’t mean we should discredit the 10 projection. If Kelly has neutral luck then he should put up a line close to that
by McCann's the Man on Oct 25, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i never said to discredit it and i doubt its just KJ that he was totally wrong about. I just said im gonna take it with a grain of salt but hey thats just what im gonna do you can believe what you want never said this guy is wrong though. Im gonna watch them play in real life games to determine how well they do im not gonna rely on this and then be hugely dissappointed. Only time will tell…
braves#1
by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another one that got me was Tommy Hanson. He had Hanson striking out 206 in 191 innings next season. That seems aggressive, but after he settled in I believe he was striking out 9+ in the last couple of months.
by yondaime4 on Oct 24, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i miss tommy hanson :(
is it April yet?
President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!
by mvhsbball on Oct 24, 2009 5:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
i have him at 11.21 K/9 for August, September, and the first of October, don’t think that’s overly optimistic. He finished at 8.18 K/9 for the season and it’s not a huge jump up
by McCann's the Man on Oct 24, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hahahah. Tommy Hanson is good…this just in
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Oct 24, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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