Hard to know about budgets in 2011. Brewers and Reds both have some significant money coming off the books. There are a lot of teams and pitching is always in demand. If he’s up for free agency, I’d think he’d test the waters.

did u really just say Lilly is a bad contract… he is only $12 M and pitched prettty damn well this year

they have bad contracts, but its Zambrano, Fuk u do me, and maybe Dempspter (but not realy)

This is some seriously awesome rampant speculation.

I’m not going to even try to prognosticate who would want JV 2011 except to say, if he tosses a low 3 ERA and has a K/BB over 4 again, there will be far too much competition in free agency for the Braves to be able to match.

Actually, he’s getting paid to throw 200+ above-average innings and contribute between 3-4 WAR per year. And that is typically what he does, year in and year out.

Not really sure what that means. Lincecum’s an ace, so is he getting ace money?

People are grossly overreacting to a few subpar months. Lowe’s likely to be worth his contract. There’s no need to just give him to the first taker for salary relief.

Sure, that’s a reasonable way to look at it. And I do agree that Lowe’s contract (which was probably a mild overpay but was done when the rotation looked much weaker) has some risk.

But let me take the counterpoint.

Coming into 2009, Lowe had put up an average WAR of 3.8 over the four prior seasons. Last year was certainly a subpar year from him, but he still chipped in a solid 2.7 WAR year. For Lowe, 2009 was basically The Case of the Missing Slider. It went from a very, very good pitch in 2008 to a bad pitch in 2009.

We know from PitchFx that the problem probably wasn’t velocity, since the 2009 slider velocity stayed pretty close to his career averages and right in-line with the relative speed differential from the fastball. It looks like the issue was slider break. It’s possible that at age 35, Lowe simply lost the deception on the pitch, making him generally more hittable. We see that in the contact rates, the lower K rates, and the rising BB rates. I think it’s also possible that there is some other, fixable reason why the slider went from great to terrible so rapidly. Perhaps he was tipping it, perhaps McCann’s calling patterns for the slider, perhaps a hidden injury of some sort, or perhaps a different grip on the pitch in Atlanta’s humidity. Who knows? What I do know is that even with a piss poor slider, Lowe chipped in nearly 3 WAR. While that’s not enough to pay for his salary (much less add value), it’s not too bad. Maybe it’s the beginning of an age decline, or maybe it’s a one year oddity. Trading Lowe for whatever Atlanta can get for him just to be rid of his salary seems like the wrong move to me.

In terms of what I’d do, to be honest, unless Wren has to make salary room for the other needs, I’d keep Lowe for the time being. There’s the point about selling low (no pun intended), and I’d prefer to stay 6 deep in the rotation (at least until Feb/Mar), as things have a way of changing when you least expect them. Given Lowe’s durability and consistency, he provides a very nice option. I also think the $45M/3 he’s owed will look a lot better in Mar 2010 than it looks right now. If I had to deal Lowe, I’d expect back at least 2 guys back, probably a B-level middle infielder or 3B (great glove, no bat would be fine) and a live single A arm.