Braves First Base: The Now and The Future

by gondeee on Sep 30, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Prospect Reviews Comment 33 comments

At the major league level…
… the ultimate product of Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Bean Jones is Casey Kotchman. Like the trade, hate the trade, whichever camp you fall into one thing is likely true; Kotchman is better than Scott Thorman, but not as good as Adam LaRoche… yet. The big problem with Kotchman is that he is not (yet) the power hitter that corner infielders are supposed to be. He’s still young, and already has five years of experience, so there certainly seems to be room to grow.

Take Kotchman’s 2008 season with the Braves with a grain of salt. He was out from under the protective wing of the Angels organization for the first time ever (since he was a kid playing catch with Garrett Anderson). He had to get used to a new league, a new team, and new teammates. Add to that his mother’s illness that caused him to miss a couple of weeks between August and September, and the amount of distractions could have caused anyone’s performance to slip. Kotchman came back at the end of the season to hit over .300 in September, so that gives the Braves some hope for next year.

He’s got the first base job next year, and he’s not likely to get pushed until at least 2010. If he can continue to build on the ceiling some think he hasn’t reached yet, and the Braves can develop one of these prospects, then we’ve got a good trade candidate late next year or next off-season. In the mean time, he should be a decent first baseman; not great, but decent.

The future Braves first baseman…
… without much of a doubt, the presence of Casey Kotchman is just as a placeholder until Freddie Freeman is ready. This southern California kid had to get used to the humid southeastern weather, but after struggling through the heat in the Gulf Coast League last year he acclimatized himself this year at Rome.

While his power waned a bit in the dog days of August, Freeman’s average stayed strong and his ability to be a run producer with good plate discipline continued to improve. It’s tough to slap a sure thing label on a kid who has one great year of single-A to show what he can do, but this winter you’ll see Freeman’s name begin to be mentioned among the top first base prospects in the game… oh, and he doesn’t turn 20 until next September.

There’s a lot to be excited about with Freddie Freeman. He is undoubtedly one of our top-5 prospects, but we still have to hope that he keeps up his performance as he moves up the minor league ladder.

Freeman52080002_medium

More for future consideration…
2. Kala Ka’aihue – Oh, Kala, you tease us with your intermittent ability. After struggling after a promotion to Mississippi last year, and a slow start in April, he found his form and kept improving all year. He hit over .300 the last three months of the season and he becomes a better hitter when runners are on base and in scoring position. He’s a mature player and reportedly one of the leaders on the team. The Braves should send Ka’aihue to triple-A next year, and we’ll see if his struggles return. If they do, there will be many who doubt whether he can successfully make the jump to the majors.

3. Ernesto Mejia – A product of our Dominican club, Mejia is a little old for the level he’s playing in, and he hasn’t produced the kind of power in the past that he showed this year at the Beach, but his .505 slugging percentage was tops on the team and 21 homeruns and 47 doubles are hard to argue with. In fact, his 47 doubles led all the minor leagues. It’s possible he’s blocked by Ka’aihue and Canizares at first base, so a move back to the outfield or a lot of DH’ing may be in his future – a very likely possibility as Mejia led the team with 23 errors. Mejia also needs to improve his plate discipline before being considered more seriously, but again, with that kind of power he at least deserves a second look.

4. Barbaro Canizares – The Cuban defector is older, at 28, but he showed good power and good plate discipline at triple-A so there is a chance we will see him in Atlanta next year as an injury replacement or power bat off the bench.

Others: Alberto Odreman (only 19 and showed good power in the DSL, led the team with 10 HR and 40 RBI); Daniel Falcon (another power product in the DSL, could be getting a little old for the league); Gerardo Rodriguez (Yankee castoff got off to a hot start at Danville, but came back down to Earth as the season progressed); Ryohei Shimabukuro (Japanese bonus baby is developing slowly, especially in the power department).

Photo of Freddie Freeman courtesy of Chip Jett

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Comments

I like Kotchman, but am probably in the group that thinks he is a 20-25 HR guy max. Ideally more than that is needed from a corner IF spot obviously. I think that makes LF an even more important position coming into this offseason. Hopefully they can add a power bat. Dunn, or Burrell, or whoever it may be.

by gopherbroke on Sep 30, 2008 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Dunn/Burrell would be a mistake they both are going to want long high dollar contracts. I think the money should be focused more on pitching the hitting.

It seems like we have quite a few 1b potential prospects not metioned were Cody Johnson/Tyler Flowers who although are a ways away from the show also have a lot of potential.

by jasonbravo on Sep 30, 2008 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the reason they weren’t mentioned here is that Flowers is currently considered a catcher and Johnson a left fielder. I’d agree that Flowers will likely end up at first base in the majors, but for the purpose of these reviews, I think gondeee is going with where guys are playing right now.

by cbwilk on Sep 30, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that more money should be focused on pitching, but we cant survive another season with an outfield of Blanco/Anderson/ Frenchy/Jones/Diaz if we intend to compete. We need a power bat somewhere.

by gopherbroke on Sep 30, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by cbwilk on Sep 30, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Although starting pitching was definitely down this year, how many of those good performances by the starters were wasted when the team couldn’t score 2-4 runs. Hell, Jurrjens alone probable had at least 5 great starts wasted.

Vintage Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine are gone, we need an offense that can score 3-5 runs a game on most nights. Not gonna be too many 2-1 games as we break in the new guys.

by 10-4 on Sep 30, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thing to remember is that our staff had the 2nd best ERA in the NL in the first half. Although they obviously came back to earth, it shows how bad our offense was even with tex, that all we did was bounce around .500 for the first half of the year with the 2nd best pitching staff in the NL.

by gopherbroke on Sep 30, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t forget the bullpen’s culpability in some of that.

by gondeee on Sep 30, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shimabukuro

What does anyone hear about his long term potential. I know he is still really young, does the organization see a lot of upside in him still and are we just waiting for a breakout, or was he a bust.

by gopherbroke on Sep 30, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I watched him play a little in the instructional league a couple of years ago when he first came over and he looked like a player to me. He carried himself well, he seemed to have a good idea of how to play the game, and his swing didn’t seem to have any major flaws. I haven’t seen him in a while, so I can’t make any concrete statement on how he’s progressing, but I will say, he played this season at 18, so, like you said, he’s still really young. Most international signings don’t shoot up the ladder like Elvis Andrus or Gorkys Hernandez, they take years to develop. I can’t say how the Braves feel about him long term, but even if he continued to move slowly one level at a time, he’s still only be 23 in his eigth year in the system. That’s what the international signings are about, long term.

by cbwilk on Sep 30, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

That is true, i didnt realize how young he started. I was reading through some old BA articles and found this quote a while back.

"The bat’s beautiful. Dave Nilsson and Pat Kelly and Rod Carew are all down here at the baseball academy in Australia, and they are all saying he’s got the best swing here. He’s a little bit better than we thought we had (offensively)."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/261898.html

by gopherbroke on Sep 30, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good find. I trust whatever Dave Nilsson has to say, that guy knows his stuff.

by cbwilk on Sep 30, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mejia

If he is a little old for the Carolina League then so is Flowers, Hicks, and Jones.

by Jay212033 on Sep 30, 2008 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point… i take that back

by gondeee on Sep 30, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for some reason I thought he was older

by gondeee on Sep 30, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You were dead on about his defense though. Much better than he was out in right field, where he was too slow, but he’s very stiff at first. Though I will say he made an amazing diving catch during the final game of the Carolina League playoffs.

by cbwilk on Sep 30, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

we also got Marek in the deal with Kotchman so you can say Jones and Marek is a wash. So it was Salty, Andrus, Feliz, and Harrison for Kotchman. The Braves may not have enough patience with Reyes so I doubt we would want Harrison AND Reyes on the same team, but i like Reyes more than Harrison so i seriously doubt we will EVER miss Harrison, yeah he has a nice amount of wins but look at the ERA, NOT pretty. We had no use for another catcher with McCann and i doubt Salty would hit enough playin first base because his defense will prolly be putrid, Kotchmans defence is Great and Kotchman can prolly outhit Salty now anyway. I like Andrus and i think he can be a good player but i see Escobar at SS for a LONG time hopefully. We have KJ, Lillibridge, Prado, Travis Jones, Hicks, and others that can all play second base and be our second baseman. So Andrus was very expendable. We still might miss Feliz and again we may not, remember there are a TON of players that have done great at AA and then amounted to nothin in the majors so you never know yet about Feliz. And yes i realize that if we would have traded Salty, Harrison, Andrus, and Feliz we could have gotten somebody better than Kotchman but at least Kotchman will be our starting First baseman for at least until our younger players are ready. Salty, Harrison, Andrus, and Feliz could all be busts we will just have to see.

braves#1

by rockybull on Sep 30, 2008 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and a plan can crash into turner field tomorrow and we could play all 162 games on the road next season.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Sep 30, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with this argument

Is that it totally discounts those players’ trade value. I agree with your assessment of their future in Atlanta. Their true value lies (or was) in their ability to acquire a player of need. Tex was never a player of need. The Braves desparately needed a starting pitcher in 07, but instead they got 1 year of Tex and Kotchman/Marek. I would not have argued if JS had traded away that much talent for the starting pitcher equivalent of Tex.

by buzzdeadwax on Sep 30, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is apparent

That you don’t remember the black hole that was Scott Thorman manning first base.

Tex was clearly a player of need.

by soup du jour on Oct 1, 2008 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember

BUT, James/Davies/Reyes, et al were terrible and not giving the team a chance to win on most nights. They hit just fine before Tex got there, the starting pitching was garbage. Just because they had a bad first baseman who hit eighth, doesn’t mean they needed another bat. Tex was a luxury, if anything. If Tex was truly a player of need, then the Braves would have had a much better record after the trade, because he would have completed the puzzle. Instead the before and after records were basically the same. They were mediocre with him and without him. It was starting pitching that held the team back, and a third starter was the true player of need.

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 1, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahhaha, you do realize that there is a good chance that all of them could be busts right? I mean im not sayin they will be but thats the way it goes with prospects you just never know. I think Feliz could have a chance at bein a good starter and Andrus a good SS but im not too thrilled about Harrison and it all depends if the Rangers or if he is traded the team keeps him at Catcher or not. He stays at catcher he could be solid he moves to First not much there in my opinion. At least we know for a FACT that Kotchman is a major league player we dont know about the other guys.

braves#1

by rockybull on Sep 30, 2008 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

casey kotchman is a major league player who doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power, and he’s player a corner IF position. please tell me why i should be jumping for joy at his slightly above average BA and lack of strikeouts.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Sep 30, 2008 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WELL

for one he is better than Thorman. hahahhaha. Thats reason enough.

But seriously he is not great (I never said he was great), but he is not awful either. He is a solid young cheap major league First baseman that plays Great defense, say what you want about defense not bein important at first base but i would MUCH rather have Kotchmans defense than a butcher of a first baseman thats for sure. I think that he can has a good chance of producing this line next season: .295 average, 15-20 homers(i agree he doesn’t hit as many homers as you would like from a first baseman), 50-90 RBI’s, depends where he bats in the order, and then .355-.375 OBP along with Great defense. I dont know for sure if he will put up those numbers or not but if he does that is good. And if you dont like those numbers then we should just end this argument now then. But i bet your a fan of a guy like Ryan Howard which is COMPLETELY overrated. Am i spot on about that?

braves#1

by rockybull on Sep 30, 2008 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i despise ryan howard. and kotchman has a career OPS of under 750. he has less homers in his career than about a dozen or so MLB regulars had this season. he doesn’t score any runs. he GIDPs a good bit. you’re basing your projections on absolutely nothing but “gut feeling”.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Sep 30, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im not the only person that likes him, there are many scouts that like him also, alot of teams would take this guy on there team no doubt about that. And yes alot of this is “my gut feeling”, so what? I have the same gut feeling that Prado can be an everyday Second baseman for the Braves also, SOOOOOO WHAT? Sometimes you need to have gut feelings. Of course Wrens not gonna read this blog and then see what i type and go im gonna listen to him, but this is just what I think. So so what if some of this is MY gut feeling, sometimes thats a good thing. AND nobody argue with me why Prado cant be an everyday second baseman cause i dont wanna see it written cause this is just MY opinion, you dont have to agree if you dont wont to.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 1, 2008 12:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1 for those not attempting to defend the salty trade

I’ll admit that at the time, I thought it was close and maybe even the Braves got the best of it, but it’s not even close now.

1. Buzz hit it on the head when he noted that most of you are totally ignoring these prospect’s trade value. Andrus is blocked by Escobar, but he is one of the top, if not the top SS prospect in baseball right now. There’s a lot of value in that, and his value has gone up since the trade, making it even worse. Feliz is also worth a piss pot right now, although the Braves would have definitely kept him if they had known.

2. It simply didn’t work. Tex was brought in to win last year or this year. That didn’t happen. That’s where much of his value was, and it simply didn’t pan out.

3. As mentioned above, Andrus and Feliz have skyrocketed in value since the trade. The Braves sold low on them, and you never want to do that. Feliz is one of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball right now. It’s sick.

—

On the other side, you’ve got to throw in the sandwich pick the braves got for Mahay into the mix, since he was part of the trade. So I think that’s Brett DeVall and the jury is still out on him, moreso than the rest. .

In hindsight, it was obviously not a good deal for the braves. They sacrificed some of the long term and didn’t get any short term success out of it. Of course DeVall could be a stud and Feliz and Andrus burn out – but that seems a bit unlikely.

If you want to lavish praise on a trade, why not the renteria one? That was an absolute steal by Wren, nabbing Gorkys and Jair for an aging mediocre Renteria.

If you want to lavish hate on a move, then pick the glavine signing. Didn’t look like a good idea before it happened and it has been a momumental bust. dude barely played and the braves dropped 10 mllion and decent first round pick.. terrible, terrible, terrible.

by son.of.sourman on Oct 1, 2008 1:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In retrospect it was a bad move...

But at the time, I still would’ve pulled the trigger in every instance.

by soup du jour on Oct 1, 2008 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glavine trade was bad because of timing

If he were signed in 2007, they would have gotten his excellent 2007 season AND kept their first round pick AND the second-rounder they lost was the guy from UGA they didn’t sign. I know that hindsight is 20-20, but signing him in 2007 made a lot of sense at the time, and I think JS didn’t work as hard as he could/should have to get the deal done.

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 1, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I

actually said that if we would have packaged Harrison, Salty, Andrus, and Feliz in the same deal we could have gotten better than Kotchman, i know that, much better than Kotchman but thats just the way it is we tried for it all and it didn’t happen for us.

I disagree about Glavine. I liked the signing and to me at that time it was worth losing a First round pick. I mean we were tryin to win it all this year and Glavine was decent in 2007 and losing a First round pick for him would not be much especially after what all we gave up for Tex. Lookin back at it, it was not a good move but i dont blame Wren for doin it at that time because at that time i thought it was a good move also, it just didn’t work out just like the Tex trade. But at least we got Kotchman for Tex, i liked it more than just tryin to get draft picks that may or may not have panned out, so it could have been much worst at least we got a solid young cheap first baseman out of that.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 1, 2008 1:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the glavine signing was a mistake from the get go, considering we paid him 8 million that we could have used on a pitcher that had a good year, like kyle lohse (JUST AN EXAMPLE I AM NOT ADVOCATING SIGNING KYLE LOHSE AND THANK GOD WE CAN’T). when you’re 40, and you throw up ERAs over 5 in 3 months of the year, and all the other warning signs that went up with glavine…yeah, throwing money at him to “stabilize the rotation” was never a good idea.

and you’re still defending casey kotchman? christ. first basemen are supposed to be mashers that walk a lot, kotchman does neither.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 5, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First base

I’m curious to see what Kala can do. Freeman is probably the 1B of the future, but he’s very young.

As for all this trade stuff, we knew we were giving up a lot for Tex, in an attempt to get into the playoffs. It didn’t work, but when you have a chance you have to pull the trigger. We gave up some good prospects for him, but no frontline players. Now we have Kotchman, who is a solid player who will have trade value when one of the kids is ready.

Unless we go wild and get two legit starters and someone like Carlos Lee for LF, next year is a rebuilding year anyway. We have Kelly and some interesting prospects to trade, and more cash than in ages, but unless we can produce an instant winner, I dunno if we should be spending what we have, in prospects and in cash.

I’m anxious to see what Freeman does next year. With his swing, he could move very, very fast. The same with Heyward, and Flowers did well in ST last year against ML pitching. So help is on the way.

by Mekons5 on Oct 1, 2008 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mejia too old?

He is just 22 and that isn’t all that old for High A ball. I love his bat and if he could figure out how to take a walk and not swing at everything thrown at him he has the potential to be a big time ML bat someday.

by KC Ryan on Oct 2, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs