Our First Baseman: Casey Kotchman
by gondeee on Jul 29, 2008 10:23 PM EDT
in Trade News
70 comments
At least Kotchman is easier to spell than Teixeira. At the risk of getting told not to, I'm going to post some snippets from Baseball America's evaluation of our new first baseman Casey Kotchman.
Here is a snippet of his evaluation from 2004 (when he was ranked as the top prospect in the Angels system):
Kotchman has a fluid swing in the classic lefthander’s mold of a Todd Helton or Will Clark, and he creates explosive contact with the fat part of the bat on a consistent basis...
He projects to hit 25-plus homers a year. Defensively, he’s as good as any first baseman in the minors, combining good instincts, accurate throws and excellent footwork around the bag. Growing up around pro clubhouses with his father, Kotchman was well prepared for pro ball.
Interestingly, the BA review uses some of the same or similar info for his 2005 review (when he was again ranked as the top prospect in the Angels system):
Kotchman has more walks (116) than strikeouts (100) as a pro and manages the balance between selectivity and aggressiveness better than any hitter in the minors...
He projects to hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learns when to lift the ball. He is smooth around the bag at first and is a future Gold Glover.
Those are some snippets of the good reviews, but among those reviews are worries about Kotchman staying healthy -- apparently a problem he had during his stint in the minors. Kotchman has been relatively healthy the last couple of years in the majors, so many of those injury fears have been dispelled.
Certainly Kotchman is having a bit of an off-year this year, as all his component averages were better last season than this season. We are trading for his ability and his future projection as much (if not more) than his current numbers. Kotchman's father is a long-time Angels player development executive and scout with the Angels, so one wonders if getting him out from under that comfort zone will energize him or make him regress.
The one certain positive of this trade is that Kotchman is at least an improving young first baseman who we have under contract for the next two years -- that's enough time for Freddie Freeman or someone else to emerge as the long-term firstbaseman of the future. In the meantime we have the possibility of having a former first-rounder blossom in a Braves uniform -- Kotchman was the 13th overall selection in the 2001 draft -- that's higher than any current Braves player not on the DL.
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You've got a solid First Baseman
What his injury record doesn’t tell you is that they were “freak”. Mono in ‘06 and pegged in the head by a Russel Martin throw to 2nd in ‘07. Hit him square in the head. Neither injury was the result of poor conditioning or work ethic.
Guy’s a class act and will be a productive, Gold Glove First Baseman for a long time. Just don’t expect a lot of words in post-game interviews.
by ReggieBullits on Jul 29, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Even more reason to hate Russel Martin
McCann would have made that throw.
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember the mono thing…I remember thinking, “Mono? Really?”
Anyway…I am one of the people here who is actually not pissed off about this deal, and I look forward to watching Kotchman play. I went to the Big A last year for a game against Toronto, and I could tell that the fans liked him. That says something.
by VegasAces on Jul 30, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Kotchman
“I’m not shocked,” Kotchman said, packing his bag to catch a flight to Atlanta to join the Braves. “I’m overflowing with joy and thankful of the opportunity to go to Atlanta and play for Bobby Cox. I’ve heard a lot of great things about him.”
I like what he has to say. Plus, we may get to see him Wednesday night.
by secondbass on Jul 29, 2008 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Improving?
Coming off the first year he’s every played in 100+ G, he’s posting worse numbers than he did a season ago. Why do people insist on claiming that he’s improving? You also hang on age with no regard to developement. If he was far enough advance to crack the big leagues at 21, then he should be judged differently than those prospects his age that have less experience. He hits like Kelly Johnson (unacceptable for a 1B) and his defense is the only reason why I consider him anything more than utterly average.
If he blossoms into a star, then I’ll happily eat crow, but there’s nothing in this package for Tex that’s remotely exciting or interesting to me. The biggest question for me has to be: why did we jump at this offer two days before the deadline? Maybe it’s the best we were going to get, but it’s not good enough to forego two more days of negotiations!
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on Jul 29, 2008 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he is a slightly above average baseball player at first base
below average with the stick, so far
well above average on the defensive side
I still don’t like the trade because we couldn’t pry away Walden or Adenhart, but getting Kotchman was nice.
Lots of lefties on this team once Schafer comes up.
This team is going to need a right handed hitting left fielder in the WORST way this offseason. As well as 2 starters. Bullpen is set though.
With about 30-35 million to spend, I figure the Braves will go after mid level free agents. John Garland makes some sense, even though I think he is vastly overrated. 3 years and 30 million for his services might be a decent deal. But as I am saying that I am thinking how bad of a deal that probably is.
I think the Braves will go seek a starter via trade and then sign another. Then I suspect they will also trade for a left fielder who could potentially hit in the middle of the order.
Should be an interesting off season, but if Tim Hudson is out until 2010, then anyone who thinks this team can contend is off their freaking rocker. Completely.
I’m sure DOB and the denizens at the AJC blog will think it is entirely feasible that the Braves can make the playoffs without Huddy, but they are really wrong.
Poor Jair Jurrjens shoulder and elbow.
by NEBravesFan33 on Jul 29, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When was the last time the Braves made a big-time free agent signing?
by jjcollins on Jul 29, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when was the last time we had $50 million to play with from our self imposed cap? I’m not saying they will make a signing of any significance, but this coming offseason is the first time in a long time that we don’t have a ton of money tied up in some aging veterans.
by yondaime4 on Jul 29, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
Although that number probably isn’t accurate. Kotchman, Francoeur, Mike Gonzalez, and Kelly Johnson are arb. eligible.
Soriano gets a 3.5 million dollar raise and McCann gets a 2.5 million dollar raise.
I think the number will probably be around 30-35 million.
by NEBravesFan33 on Jul 29, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano already has a contract, 3 mil this year, 6 mil next year. What a joke. 6 million for a mediocre reliever with a history of arm trouble. GAY.
by jjcollins on Jul 29, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mediocre?!
2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with a 9.25 K/9 and 3.45 K/BB over 255 career innings is mediocre??? Thanks for saving me the trouble of having to pay credence to any of your future comments!
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on Jul 30, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
It’s around 47 to 48 million if Glav and Smoltz don’t return. Then the number will be around upper 30’s to mid 30’s to use on FA’s which could net us a starter to take Huddy’s place and maybe a bat like Dunn which we will need b/c Kotch has minimal power
by H0SS on Jul 29, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Jordan in 1998
Dude, sooner or later the team has to stop trading prospects to fill needs.
by NEBravesFan33 on Jul 29, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Jordan? He’s a big free agent signing? You gotta be kidding me.
by jjcollins on Jul 29, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fred McGriff
Vinny Castilla
I’m sure there’s more, but that’s the ones right off the top of my head.
by RainDelay on Jul 30, 2008 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does resigning the Crime Dog really count?
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it does...
...because no one was sure if McGriff would resign with the club.
by RainDelay on Jul 30, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the ONLY positive i immediately take out of this is “he’s great with the glove”. probably not as good as tex, but still. his hitting though…oof. i’d love for him to prove me wrong and turn into the second coming of tex, but i don’t think thats gonna happen.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Jul 29, 2008 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some people say he's better than Teix
It’s probably a wash either way. RZR has them almost dead even.
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously this trade is the end of the world and we will never, as a franchise, recover from the atrocities visited upon us by management. GO Yankees.
by yondaime4 on Jul 29, 2008 11:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You should be banned from this site for the last two words of that statement. Although, the first part is true probably.
by jjcollins on Jul 29, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for your consideration
Just some info while trolling Baseball Reference on our new acquisition…
Kotchman
Age 24: 443 AB. 11 HR. 53/43 K/BB. .296/.372/.467.
Age 25 (so far): 373 AB. 12 HR. 18/23 K/BB. .287/.327/.448
Adam LaRoche
Age 24: 324 AB. 13 HR. 27/78 K/BB. .278/.333/.488
Age 25: 451 AB. 20 HR. 39/87 K/BB. .259/.320/.455
Age 26: 492 AB. 32 HR. 55/128 K/BB. .285/.354/.561 -> yes, please. although Kotchman will likely be more OBP, less SLG.
Nick Johnson
Age 23: 378 AB. 15 HR. 48/98 KBB. .243/.347/.402
Age 24: 324 AB. 14 HR. 70/57 K/BB. .284/.422/.472 -> can Kotchman get his plate discipline to this level? that would be nice.
Age 25: 251 AB. 7 HR. 40/58 K/BB. .251/.359/.398 (cut short by injury)
Lyle Overbay
Age 26: 254 AB. 20 2B. 4 HR. 36/67 K/BB. .276/.365/.402
Age 27: 579 AB. 53 2B. 16 HR. 81/128 K/BB. .301/.385/.478 -> probably best case if the HR power never comes. will have to hit lots of doubles and a .300 avg to be competent.
David Ortiz —> oh please god, yes.
Age 24: 415 AB. 10 HR. 57/81 K/BB. .282/.364/.446
Age 25: 303 AB. 18 HR. 40/68 K/BB. .234/.324/.475 --> injury year, I believe, but power comes in. really takes the step forward at age 27.
Age 26: 412 AB. 20 HR. 43/87 K/BB. .272/.339/.500
Age 27: 448 AB. 31 HR. 58/83 K/BB .288/.369/.592 -> Papi’s first year in Boston. Late bloomer, probably not something we can wait on with Kotchman. Interestingly, Ortiz is Kotchman’s number one comp on Baseball Reference.
Sean Casey
Age 24: 594 AB. 25 HR. 61/88 K/BB. .332/.399/.539 -> Really peaked in his first full year, but hey, if Kotchman can put up this line in a Braves uni, I’ll take it.
by jc25 on Jul 29, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Overbay.
I agree with Lyle Overbay as the most likely positive outcome for Kotchman. Guys like Big Papi are the exception to the norm, but it’s awesome that he’s even on the list, let alone #1. I hope he developes, but he’s already had over1,100 ML AB (something I don’t think the other guys on your list had at his age) and he seems to have plateaued (sic?).
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on Jul 30, 2008 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At age 24 Kotchman was ON FIRE until Russel Martin Hit him on the head while trying to pick him off at second.
The ball BROKE Kotchs Helmet and he was out of the lineup for a while. This threw off Kotchman otherwise he would have had a Career year.
Trust me you guys will learn to Love Kotchman. I was mad that he was blocking Kendry Morales at 1B but have learned to like the kid. He plays hard and keeps to himself.
Oh and a Kotchman HR is called a KROTCH ROCKET!!!!
Hope Kotchman the best in ATLANTA and dont over react guys, Kotchman is a fine player.
Put Kendry Morales at 1B, and move Sean Rodriguez to 3B......NOW LETS GO WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by acuda27 on Jul 30, 2008 5:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you going to do?
I have to imagine this in fact the best offer that was out there. I know firsthand AZ wasn’t offering much. I suppose it would have been nice to have Boston under the gun, but that wasn’t the case. I am highly skeptical of ownership. With the starters that were available this past offseason and this past summer, I was very disappointed they didn’t jump into the fray. Haren, Sabathia, Santana, etc. With all that money coming off the books after this year and the team in dire need of a true #1, I thought they could have done something of consequence. Now? John Garland? Lord help us!! Hopefully they do indeed get a big bat this offseason. Either through FA or trade. That would alleviate some of my fears.
Anyhow, I would have liked to get more for Tex, but this isn’t a bad haul. A major league 1b under control for 3 more years that plays gold glove or close to it defense and a future setup man(hopefully). That is PROBABLY better than the 2 draft picks. Plus, probably cheaper!!! Now it will be interesting to see what Ohman fetches.
by NorCalAtlFan on Jul 30, 2008 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alright here's what we need to do before Thursday
1. Trade Jeff Francoeur and Will Ohman to the Rays for Wade Davis, Edwin Jackson, Eddie Morlan and Ryan Royster
2. Trade Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, Jeff Locke and Chad Rodgers to the Pirates for Jason Bay
3. Release Julian Tavarez, Ruben Gotay, Corky Miller
4. Call up Jordan Schafer and Phil Stockman
Lineup:(When Chipper returns)
Kelly Johnson – 2B
Yunel Escobar – SS
Chipper Jones – 3B
Jason Bay – RF
Brian McCann – C
Casey Kotchman – 1B
Gregor Blanco/Matt Diaz – LF
Jordan Schafer – CF
Bench:
Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco
Omar Infante – UT
Clint Sammons – C
Martin Prado – UT
Greg Norton – UT
Rotation:( When Glavine’s healthy)
Jair Jurrjens – RHP
Tom Glavine – LHP
Edwin Jackson – RHP
Mike Hampton – LHP
Jorge Campillo – RHP
Bullpen:
Jeff Bennett – RHP
Buddy Carlyle – RHP
Blaine Boyer – RHP
Royce Ring – LHP
Phil Stockman – RHP
Rafael Soriano – RHP
Mike Gonzales – LHP
by Jay212033 on Jul 30, 2008 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You Lost Me With #1.
I’d be surprised if you could get any one of those guys from TB to headline a package for Ohman and Francouer. The other moves are reasonable enough, but without that surreal trade with the Rays, it doesn’t fall into place like you want it to. Sorry.
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on Jul 30, 2008 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tampa doesn’t really need to trade if they don’t want to. And what makes Jordan Schafer a call up? He’s been horrible since returning from his suspension. There is no way, you’ll see Schafer in a Braves jersey this year – and most likely next. He’s got a long way to go…especially factoring in the suspension and the fact he’s performing horribly.
And basically you’re gutting the entire roster. We don’t need a rebuild for gods sake…you must have had a extra bowl of crazy flakes this morning.
by RainDelay on Jul 30, 2008 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are also a fine example..
...of why I hate rosterbation and trade speculation. Not to mention the guys in charge have more baseball knowledge than the whole lot of us, not to mention you.
by RainDelay on Jul 30, 2008 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
where is kotsay?
"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."
by jug on Jul 30, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
that was quick. I assume MLB uses Photoshop?
by sddbaker on Jul 30, 2008 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am taking that as not a good sign
by VegasAces on Jul 30, 2008 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a morning after thought
Kotchman alone is major-league better than anyone the Braves gave up for Tex last year. His potential while in the minors was comparable to Salty (and it looks increasingly likely the Rangers will shift Salty to 1B, so it’s an apt comparison). And Salty isn’t exactly setting the world on fire this year (a la Kotchman in his first years). Neftali and Andrus could possibly be super-awesome; we won’t find out for a few years. Marek-Beau Jones seem similar. And Matt Harrison doesn’t exactly thrill me, either. Again, just a thought…but for the immediate future (i.e., 2009), the Braves seem to have the upper hand on the whole direct 2-Tex trades link.
by jc25 on Jul 30, 2008 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Matt Harrison is pitching worse than Charlie Morton
Just in case anyone is wondering. I really hope Charlie figures it out.
Neftali looks like he could be really good. Andrus won’t be special until he hits for power. He’s young so who knows, but he’s so far off he could easily bust.
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to look at trades differently than this.
I try not to get hung up on whether the prospect busts or not. That road usually gets me going down actually kinda hoping they’ll fail, just so we can get some sort of semblance of ‘winning’ a trade, which isn’t what its supposed to be about.
I think the trade failed when we didn’t make the playoffs last year, and were forced to trade Tex this year, irrespective of what happens with what we gave up. It happens. But given to do it all over, I would’ve still traded for Tex last year; this year I would’ve held out for more closer to the deadline, but what do I know of the actual discussions?
by soup du jour on Jul 30, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DOB says:
And for those wondering what Cards will give up for Ohman, I would not expect a top pitching prospect.
Like some of you’ve suggested, they really should consider keeping Ohman and trying to re-sign him. Need a quality durable veteran, since right now you’ve got Soriano, Gonzo, Boyer and possibly a few other youngsters returning, with Moylan expected back in May or June.
by NEBravesFan33 on Jul 30, 2008 8:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
when was the last time the Braves signed anyone? Especially a middle reliever? Ohman is going to get 3-4 years for 3.5 million a year!!
by NEBravesFan33 on Jul 30, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's really this simple...
...if Kotchman can learn how to talk a walk again (11% per PA in 2007, 5% per PA in 2008) it becomes a good trade.
The SLG is still really low for a 1B (17th in the majors for 1B that qualify this season), but it appears as though he is starting to find some sort of a power stroke as opposed to the first couple incomplete seasons of his career (Isolated Slugging has remained pretty constant over the last two years: .171 in 2007, .161 in 2006…Tex was at .229 this season for a reference). If that trend is going to continue his offensive value is going to be determined by his OBP.
A 1B with an .840 OPS (his OPS last year), gold glove calibur defense, and cheaply controlled for the next two season? I’m just fine with that for Tex, even if Marek never throws a pitch for us. But if that OPS is going to hover around .774 (this season’s OPS)...then I have a problem with that and Marek becomes a crucial factor in this trade.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would be very happy with those 07 numbers
I just accidentally closed my tab and I don’t want to repaste these stats so take a look here.
Basically, his Pitchers per PA are down (3.7 -> 3.4) so that explains his lack of walking. His BABIP has regressed to where it should be based on his LD% (around 16% so around .280 BABIP). LD% + .120 roughly predicts BABIP for those of you who don’t know. His HR/F is up a bit, which is nice.
He also has 5 lucky HR, which is “A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.” Here’s his Hittracker data. His average HR distance is about 372.2 FT, which is better than Youk and Lowell. Here’s a link to that. Scroll to the very bottom. Nice to see Chipper averaging 400 FT per HR. Gees Longoria averaging 401 FT per HR? Anyway interesting to look at.
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah man…his OBP is going to be what the deal hinges on. I was reading somewhere that he’s trying to focus on hitting the ball to the opposite field more this season, which has negatively effected (or is it affected? I can never tell) his ability to work the count and get on base via the BB…does that sound familiar at all? Hopefully TP can fix that shit, because if he’s going to be getting on base below a .330 clip for the rest of his time in Atlanta I’m going to be fucking furious.
Also, since you brought up the Hittracker site…I was looking at it the other day and noticed that Justin Upton had hit only 1 HR less than 400ft this season!
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's affected...
....and I heard somewhere (was it Joe and Jon Sciambi?) that Kotchman is something like the 3rd hardest player in the AL to strikeout? Something like that. Anyway, sounded good to me.
I tell you, I’m warming to this deal more and more…....
by secondbass on Jul 30, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for spelling tip...
...and I’m starting to warm up to it as well, but only if Kotchman gets that OBP back to .350 or above.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%.
Angel fan here – and I just did some investigating on Kotchman last week – trying to figure out why his OBP is falling when – as a 25 year-old – it should be going up. And basically, he is swinging early in the count more than last year (lower P/PA) and he is hitting the ball on the ground more this year.
If he can regain his patience and re-learn how to take ball 4 – he could very well be an .850 OPS 1st baseman with a plus/plus glove.
Hope he does that for you guys and for him. I really like him as a player – probably because he was one of a very few Halos who know (or knew) how to draw a walk. Shoot, I’m surprised that we didn’t as for Francoeur just to get ANOTHER guy who is allergic to the base on balls.
Hope he pans out for the Braves and he crushes in the postseason next time they get there.
Jim Scully
by jimmuscomp on Jul 30, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes indeed...
...I have no idea if you guys switched hitting instructors or anything like that, but it just seems odd for a young player who had a very good season last year to up and change his approach. FYF has gone through a similiar experience this year, but Kotchman was much better than him at the dish last year, and still much better than him this season.
I certainly hope he goes back to 2007 Casey Kotchman as well.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No change in hitting instructor...
Mickey Hatcher.
I’ll repeat, so that you don’t think I’m kidding…
Mickey Hatcher is the hitting instructor – and has been for a long damn time. Hatcher (and the organization as a whole) preaches being aggressive and taking your licks. They teach hitters to value the situation and perform accordingly. Productive outs, hitting behind the runner at 2nd base, bucking up with RISP, etc. All that crap from the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals (without the ridiculous team speed) is what this team teaches its offensive players.
One theory I have come up with has to do with the success this team is having with an atypical approach at the plate. The team success has to be reinforcing what everyone is doing individually – even if they are playing more poorly than last year offensively. So, there is that. Kotchman isn’t producing as well as last year, but the team is outplaying last years’ team, so why should he change his approach.
Another theory, is that Garret Anderson and Hatcher finally convinced him to swing more. I really hope that isn’t the problem – but it wouldn’t surprise me. Kotchman’s dad is the Low-A ball manager in the Halos organization – the Orem Owlz. Casey would spend his summer days taking batting practice with the Owlz at the park – this was when Salmon, Edmonds, Anderson, etc. were coming through the system. So, a lot of his Angel peers were guys he really looked up to – who knows if that had anything to do with it. It makes for an interesting read though.
Anyway, if his P/PA can go up and he can try to lay off pitches he mashes into the ground (a lot of 4-3 outs could be in your future) he could be something really special.
Jim Scully
by jimmuscomp on Jul 30, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man…can’t believe you brought up Tim Salmon. I was a big fan of his as a kid.
I understand what you’re saying. It’s just that a drop that large, almost 50 points, is alarming in my eyes. Who knows, maybe Kotchman turns it on against NL pitchers. Maybe Chipper, McCann, and KJ all rub off on the lefty a little and he starts taking more pitches (KJ’s slipped from 13% to 10% this year, which is still very good, but a decline nonetheless). Maybe TP notices something that Hatcher didn’t.
I don’t really care about all that nice guy stuff, simply because being a nice guy doesn’t get you on base. But if he can get that OBP back up to at least .350 to go along with the .450 SLG stroke he’s seemed to have found over the last two seasons and continue that for the next to years at a very affordable price…I’d have to consider that a very fair trade.
BTW…you know his exact P/PA in 2006 and 2007?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
P/PA
2005 – 3.63
2006 – 3.48
2007 – 3.73
2008 – 3.35
My projections for him (not terribly scientific) and his HIGH end are:
.375/.475
If his BA goes up WHEN he starts drawing more walks…an OBP of .390 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But, he has to adjust back to his previous approach or just remember how he hit pre-2008.
Jim Scully
by jimmuscomp on Jul 30, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the numbers. I’ll say it again…if he can play around his 2007 numbers I’ll be happy.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 31, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at this now, Casey may want to work on his signature. His first name looks more like “Gay” than “Casey”
by 10-4 on Jul 30, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Thoughts on Tex Deal
His dip in OBP this year worries me.
http://runaroundsues.blogspot.com/2008/07/thoughts-on-texiera-trade.html
by Runaround Sues on Jul 30, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You and me both.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty funny
“Kotchman looks to be a decent but frustrating player. In fact, this season looks quite similar to Jeff Francoeur’s 2007. And fortunately for the Braves, a good season for Jeffy is a down season for Kotchman.”
From here
by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeffy?
I kid you not – my grandmother had a good friend named Jeffy Butts. No joke.
by secondbass on Jul 30, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh…that certainly makes you think about how to honestly and accurately gauge those two players.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 30, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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