Stark on the Braves and Teixeira
by gondeee on Jul 28, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
in Braves Trade News
Email
PrintHere are some interesting snippets about Mark Teixeira's future from a Jayson Stark column over at ESPN:
As of early Monday, the Braves hadn't glued a ribbon on Teixeira's head and stationed him in their main display window -- yet. But we're hearing they have gathered their chief decision-makers in Atlanta for a meeting Monday afternoon.
Add to that the fact that special assistant to the GM, Jim Fregosi (also one of the Braves top talent evaluators), was in attendance in Philadelphia with GM Frank Wren to watch the Braves. Those last two games, by the way, were actually pretty historic:
The feeling of clubs that have spoken with Braves GM Frank Wren is that he hasn't seen anything lately that would convince him his team has a 41-17 run in it (which is what it would take to get to 90 wins). And neither has anyone else.
Wren followed his team to Philadelphia over the weekend, to try to get "a feel" for which way it was headed, he said. What he witnessed was almost incomprehensible -- a weekend in which the Braves blew leads of five-plus runs to the same team in back-to-back games for the first time in franchise history.
"I don't know how he could watch that," said an official of one club monitoring the Teixeira situation closely, "and come away thinking they've still got a shot at this thing."
Here's the market, according to Stark:
Tampa Bay is looking for a right-handed-hitting right fielder, not a first baseman. The Red Sox don't have a place to fit David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and Teixeira even if they unload Manny. The Angels love their first baseman, Casey Kotchman, and seem more focused on a low-level bullpen deal. And none of those teams would give up its first baseman for a two-month rental of Teixeira.
So that still seems to leave Arizona as the best fit. Despite reports that Atlanta would insist on getting Conor Jackson back for Teixeira, one source with knowledge of those clubs' conversations says those reports are "not accurate."
"'Insist' is not the right word," the source said. "For one thing, there hasn't been that much conversation. That would insinuate somebody walked away from an offer that didn't include him. And that's not the case."
Keep in mind that all of this "no market for Tex" talk is simply speculation on the part of writers. The Braves know there's a market for him out there, there's always going to be people inquiring on someone who could have such an impact on a team. One factor to keep in mind about this "market" for Tex is that if the Braves play the game right it will probably be just before the deadline when he is traded.
15 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Hmmm...
This Arizona trade talk seems like sportswriters’ speculation gone wild. Check out this comparison:
Player A – .300/.378/.474 in 390 AB
Player B – .281/.389/.507 in 377 AB
How much would you give up to upgrade from Player A to Player B? Would you give up the top remaining prospect (a potential ace) in your depleted farm system for that? I wouldn’t. How about more? Definitely not. Well, “Player” A is not really a player at all; that line belongs to Arizona 1B this season. Player B is, of course, Tex. Just for fun, here are Conor Jackson’s lines as a 1B and a LF: .302/.399/.481 in 235 AB and .360/.413/.550 in 100 AB respectively. How does this trade talk make any sense to anyone??? Maybe they’re interested and maybe we’ll ship him there, but we’re not getting Jackson, Parker or any other similar pieces in return. Heck, I’d expect a Jason Bay type package, headlined by a low ceiling corner outfielder and a seemingly busted higher ceiling SS.
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
Maybe not a Jackson/Parker
but a Tracy/Parker or even Tracy/Scherzer isn’t out of the question, at least in my mind.
And, you can spin stats any way you want but you’ll never be able to convince me that Jackson can hold a candle to what Teixeira could do for that team in the last two months.
Those Silly Stats.
Conor Jackson (.324/.407/.512 in 340 AB) has been better than Mark Teixeira (.281/.389/.507 in 377 AB) this year. If you don’t want to admit that because one guy gets tons of love from the press and the other is finally having his break out year (he’s 26, the average age at which MLB players enter their peak) then that’s your problem. Jackson’s also under team control for 2-3 years in arbitration while Tex will leave via free agency this offseason.
Obviously, that’s not a choice they have to make. They’ll rightly refuse to trade Jackson to us and keep him in LF. If we’re willing to accept Chad Tracy as the only MLB ready piece in a return package, then they’ll act. That said, I’d be shocked if they gave up a top pitching prospect in that deal. Scherzer and Parker are pretty much all that’s left in that system. They’ve already dealt 5 of their top 8 preseason prospects (as per Baseball America)! Again, I could see us getting a “quantity” package if we end up making a deal with Arizona.
In the end, I don’t see much of a market for Tex.
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
Never said Stats are silly
In fact I lean more heavily towards stats, or true performance if you will, than I do scouting reports.
And, for the record I don’t have a problem because I can see the issue clearly. You’re using stats that don’t necessarily apply to the situation to make your point. Then you make flawed statements as if they’re facts such as “Obviously, that’s not a choice they have to make. They’ll rightly refuse to trade Jackson to us” when it is probably nothing more than your opinion based on your figures. That is, of course, unless you’re Josh Byrnes right hand man???
My point was, however, that you are spinning the stats to suit your needs and you’re not providing a clear picture. Look up the career 2nd half numbers of both players then argue with me. Your unfairly punishing Teixeira for a slow start this year and unfairly rewarding CoJack for his superior performance against left handers. Yes, I know the arguement, performance is performance who cares if it’s against lefties or righties or whether the player got off to a slow start. Well, I do considering the greater majority of the time batters will face right handers and Teixeira has a clear history of performing better in the 2nd half.
Also, I’m one of the biggest CoJack fans out there. I think the kid has tremendous upside, but I don’t see this being his breakout year. Breakout to me indicates a player is more than exceeding his previous years performance and while some of his stats ARE higher than the previous years, I wouldn’t say it’s breakout levels. Yes, his overall hit/walk rates are up as well as his extra base hit numbers but that’s somewhat skewed due to the .380+ avg against lefties. In actuality his rates are down against righties and I would argue that’s slightly more important (maybe, maybe not – it’s subjective).
Look, the bottom line is I agree with you that Jackson will probably not be traded in any Teixeira deal. But I disagree with you on whether Teixeira is a significant upgrade over Jackson at 1B.
uhhhhhh
dont the D-Backs have a hole in LF? Why not move Jackson to LF for the rest of this year and put Tex at First? They have Reynolds at third. They have NO place for Tracy. Trade us Tracy and Parker and it looks like a trade we will do. Jackson is prolly 3 or 4 years away from the majors. The D-Backs are tryin to win NOW. Of course they have a good young enough team to win now and in the future but the time is now while they have Webb and Haren. Its crazy how people say we wont get enough. How does people know that? Tex is the ONLY difference maker bat that will prolly get traded. Bay and Holliday are out there but those teams DONT have to trade them. And in the past there was power house teams but this year ANY good team has a chance at the World Series. I find it funny if nobody gives us a Tracy and Parker type package.
braves#1
Haren, Webb and the myths.
Arizona has Haren (27) and Webb (29) locked up through 2010 (both have cheap Team Options for that season) so they’re in no rush there. The bulk of their team core is young and they have several more years at the level they’re currently at. The D’backs have struggled to remain above .500 and, even with Tex, will struggle to beat their likely AL counterparts in the World Series. In fact, I’d say that a Tex acquisition would still leave them behind the Brewers and perhaps even the Cubs in the NL.
Do you really find it that hard to believe that no one will fork over a starting pitcher with ace potential (considered a steal when he was drafted #9 overall just two years ago) and another useful piece in a trade for a rental guaranteed to walk via free agency? What’s the market for him anyway, now that the Yanks and BoSox are definitely out of it and the Rays and Angels appear very unlikely; in other words, who is competing with Arizona, driving up the price to those levels?
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
ok.....
can you guarantee that Webb will be pitching this good 2 or 3 years down the road? No you cant. Of course he could but he could always get hurt or whatever. Same thing goes for Haren. Why not try for it all while those two pitchers are still pitching good. And how is the AL much better than the D-Backs if they get Tex? What team wants to face Webb and Haren back to back in a series? Not many dude not many especially with a Switch hitting cleanup guy in the middle of the lineup. You can spin this whichever way you want to but I can spin it right back the way I want to. You might be right that they dont offer what we want but I just think its kind of foolish if they dont. Now no way should they trade Jackson. But Tracy and Parker or Scherzer seems like a good package for Tex and TWO draft picks. Seems to me that its a win win deal for both teams. Like I said before there are NO clear World Series teams. ANY good team has a chance at it. Thats why you do this deal if your Arizona.
braves#1
Even That's A Gamble.
Parker has a high ceiling, but he is a ways away and you never know about pitching prospects. Do you really want to look back in a couple years and realize that all we got for Teixeira was one half of a league average platoon at 1B?
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
I already posted a long dissertation on AZ’s needs in this thread
http://www.talkingchop.com/2008/7/24/578701/the-atlanta-braves-and-the
but to summarize, I don’t see the value for AZ trading Conor or Tracy for Tex. Both are locked up relatively cheap and needed over the next few years. Tracy is doing a great job recovering from his knee injury and can be platooned to be a pretty valuable first baseman. Conor looks to be pushing Eric Byrnes to the bench, he’s actually been much better defensively in left than at first. The incremental value of Tex over 58 games isn’t worth a lot to us.
And it’s not worth giving up any top prospects. We are still building this team, and if Webb/Haren can’t be re-signed we’ll need Scherzer/Parker et al.
Right now AZ World Series chances are slim this year, we are likely to be the worst playoff team, if we even make it. But if we can build the team over the next two years, we’ll be in great shape to make real championship runs. But not this year, even with Tex.
Oh, and next year Arizona will have 7-9 picks in the first 70, so even getting the 2 picks from letting Tex walk won’t have much incremental value. The team that should be paying up for Tex is Anaheim. They are delusional if they think they’ll end up hosting the ALCS, their run differential is a joke, and they are likely to finish with the 2nd or third best record in the AL. Tex would be a big upgrade and they can afford to sign him to a long term deal as well. He’d make them the favorites for the WS.
DBacksArb
How is yalls World Series chances slim? Yall have Webb and Haren back to back. No team wants to face them. But if you would rather have Tracy over Tex THEN FINE WITH ME. You can keep him and see the years of Webb and Haren WASTE away without anything to show for it. At least Tex gives yall a GREAT chance to win it all especially since Tex IS a second half player.
braves#1
How does Tex help?
Even with Tex the Dbacks will be on the road the entire playoffs. At best we have 5-7% chance of winning a world series with him. Maybe a 15% chance of getting to the world series, best case.
And those years of Webb and Haren are definitely going to waste if we don’t have any first baseman in 09 & 2010. Tracy is probably a 120 OPS+ hitter or against right handed pitchers, just a hair worse than Tex. With a decent platoon partner the upgrade from 115-120 OPS+ to 131 OPS+ is pretty minor. And losing both Tex and that platoon with Tracy next year would be awful. The Dbacks need to spend their resources fixing other areas.
ok....
but cant yall move back Jackson to First and hope that Byrnes is healthy? Yall are payin Byrenes somethin like 10 million a year for 2 more years. The D-Backs can do what they want I dont care. The 2 draft picks is better than what yall will probably offer anyway.
braves#1
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
